3 Years before the primaries, only political junkies had heard of...

[cthulu2016]

Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama

When there is a VP in the mix (Mondale, Gore) the name recognition is higher.

Famous pols who are not President or VP but are obvious picks don't have a great track record in our party. Teddy Kennedy. John Glenn. Mario Cuomo. Hillary Clinton.

Kerry was a medium-sized name. (I think of 2004 as like 1984 where the party went for a name because the devil was in the white house and folks were electability-minded.)

I think Hillary will not fizzle in 2016, but things happen. When there isn't an incumbent running our nominee tends to be somebody I had barely heard of three years before the primaries.

[HoneychildMooseMoss]

1. Well, 3 years before 1992, everyone in Arkansas had heard of Bill Clinton,

as well as large numbers of people in surrounding states, and many people remembered his excruciatingly long speech at the 1988 Democratic National Convention. But I see your point.

[cthulu2016]

2. True. I assume Carter was known in Georgia, Dukakis in New England, etc..

But they were not the biggest names nationally.

I guess Martin O'Malley (sp?) would like my analysis.