Gallup survey shows 'sharp deterioration in job market' in Feburary, unemployment rate rises to 9.0%

[stockholmer]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/211817-gallup-survey-shows-sharp-deterioration-in-job-market-in-feburary

Unemployment could rise back to 9 percent of the U.S. population in Feburary, according to a Gallup survey released Tuesday, painting a grim picture for the Obama administration, which had been temporarily buoyed by promising jobs figures at the end of January.

Gallup's mid-month reading, which traditionally previews the government report issued at the end of the month, shows a rise of seven-tenths of a percentage from the 8.3 percent unemployment rate at the end of January. That would be the worst unemployment figure since September of last year.

The survey firm said seasonal factors — including job loss by seasonal workers hired over the holidays — could be responsible for the dip. "Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January," the firm said in a statement accompanying the release of the data.

Gallup also found that 10 percent of American workers have part-time positions despite wanting full-time work. "The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010," the polling firm said.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/152753/Unemployment-Increases-Mid-February.aspx

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Could well be a blip in a generally downward trendline.

Or it could be the leading edge of a few months' upturn in unemployment. My money is on the former, but in any case you need more than this little pimple in the graph to draw even tentative conclusions.

[stockholmer]

4. $105(WTI-Cushing) / $122(North Sea Brent) a barrel oil prices do not bode well, I see QE3 by June

Hello $2000/oz gold, hello further currency debasement, hello CPI inflation. And this doesnt even take into account fully the possible Iran nightmare, nor further EU crises over here on my side of the pond.

We live in interesting times, as the Chinese say.

[TheWraith]

17. I'm sure that you're drooling over the prospect.

Anything to fuel the insistance that the economy is dying and we're all about to be living in a ditch.

[phasma ex machina]

2. Some say the real rate is at least double the official rate.

People ought to divvy up the good (high paying) real jobs (forget the make work). What's wrong with everybody working a couple of days a week then spending their five off days doing whatever the Spirit moves them to do?

[TheWraith]

12. And some people say that the Earth is 6,000 years old.

Some people thinking it doesn't make it less BS, though.

[Zalatix]

18. The U6 unemployment rate is the real unemployment rate, used by Europe. It's at 15.1%

Not quite double the official U3 rate, but close.

Note: it's also down from 17% back in January of 2011.
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/print.pl/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

GO OBAMA!!!

[phasma ex machina]

19. How does your theory about the earth's age affect unemployment?

[Bonobo]

20. Considering the way the numbers are obtained, the "real rate" is higher without a doubt.

In fact, anyone that would argue this point has more in common with people that think the Earth is 6,000 years old than those that make the claim.

[BzaDem]

3. Gallup isn't seasonally adjusted. Apparently, the same time last year, they had the rate at 10%

while the seasonally adjusted rate was 9%.

http://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-is-freaking-out-over-a-new-survey-that-shows-unemployment-surging-again-2012-2

[stockholmer]

6. I guess we will wait and see what the BLS numbers are

[spanone]

5. could......'Unemployment could rise back to 9 percent' and it could go down

[LongTomH]

7. Don't Panic!!!

Unemployment will rise and fall between now and November. The issue is: Where will it be in November and what will Mr. Obama be seen to be doing to help?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. yes. Also, I noticed Obama said "it will rise and fall" so I think he kind of knew then. nt

[BlueDemKev]

16. That's not very reassuring...

...the weak economic recovery has been the #1 drag on President Obama and unless people see job prospects are steadily improving between now and the fall, Obama will have a very hard time getting re-elected. We cannot win this election simply by hoping the Republicans continue to self-destruct.

[LongTomH]

22. Believe me! I already expect an uphill battle all the way!

We're facing half a billion dollars in campaign funds already promised to the Republican candidate, the Dark Arts of Karl Rove and friends, and continued and expanding Republican attempts to disqualify voters.

What's at stake? Keep watching the videos and multimedia forum for some posts by Thom Hartmann (the Teach-In videos), on how close we came to a 2nd Great Depression and what kind of future we can expect with conservatives in charge.

Edited to add: Thom just posted them! Get thee to the Video & Multimedia forum post-haste!

[Honeycombe8]

8. Is Gallup a recognized authority for the unemployment rate? I never heard that.

It's a polling service.

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. So called progressives grasping for the usual negative straws

The usual nonsense.

[OnlinePoker]

10. What do you think BLS is?

They poll 60k households and determine the unemployment rate from that. Gallup may only poll a couple of thousand, and this can result in some wild differences (over 1% early last year, for example). However, for the past 8 months their mid-month numbers have either been equal to or underestimate the BLS unemployed number for the end of the month.

For a good primer on how BLS comes up with their monthly numbers, here's a link to their site:

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. thanks so much for this great link. nt

[Honeycombe8]

21. I wouldn't know what procedures are best for statistics, anyway, so I'll go w/official nos.

Polls are fun for popularity or possible voting. They are never used for important, official things such as unemployment rate, deaths from lung cancer, etc.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. they actually did predict that it would drop below 9 before it did...I was following it then nt

[Dawson Leery]

11. Now they are reporting monthly employment reports before the end of the month?

[bhikkhu]

23. and throwing in "Regardless of what the government reports..."

so they have the actual figures, before there are actual figures, and that's the news because everyone else is liars.

or something like that.