General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRemember Arianna Huffington describing the stock market rally as a dead cat bounce two years ago?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=5315041&mesg_id=5315747NNN0LHI (1000+ posts) Mon Mar-23-09 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
23. I heard economist Arianna Huffington describe the rally as a dead cat bounce the other day
Wait a minute. Arianna Huffington is no economist.
Don
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Boy, she is smart. Wonder what she has to say now?
Ikonoklast
(23,973 posts)here, too, for three years now.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)onenote
(42,737 posts)or citing specific predictions by others, including predictions of a total collapse around Christmas and, earlier, predictions that the market would settle in for a long run at around 6000.
Which reminds me. Is there anyway to access threads that I bookmarked back in the DU2 days?
Ikonoklast
(23,973 posts)And the imminent demise of commercial builders.
Yes, there was a decline in price due to business failures and increased vacancies, but one of the bright spots was the quick recovery and increased demand for new commercial building and renovation of existing stock for re-purposing.
Ikonoklast
(23,973 posts)He was eventually proven correct, although a great many of his other predictions both before and after the crash were dead wrong, and are convienently ignored by his devotees.
boppers
(16,588 posts)In about 5 billion years it won't be cold enough for cellular life.
nobodyspecial
(2,286 posts)You mean cheering it on. Somehow, that is going to usher in some glorious defeat of capitalism to somehow be replaced by a utopian society.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)I can dig that
orwell
(7,775 posts)...just ask her.
still_one
(92,345 posts)occurring for several reasons. Historically low interest rates and company profits, but much of those profits were on the backs of many American workers whose jobs have been off-shored to India and China.
There are several things immediate things that can destroy this rally, among them are increasing energy prices and the European financial crisis.
Greece is only the tip of the iceberg, and it will eventually default
Zalatix
(8,994 posts)where will they turn to for money? Anyone wanna chance a guess?
jeff47
(26,549 posts)St. Reagan raised Social Security taxes so that the baby boomers pre-paid for their retirement.
Zalatix
(8,994 posts)The point I was making was that they'll take out a lot of 401k withdrawals. This could have a big effect on the stock market.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Taxes would have to shoot waaaay up to cover baby boomers, since they didn't have as many kids. So Social Security taxes were raised in the 80s to create the trust fund. The plan is for that trust fund to get spent down covering the baby boomers.
"Generation X" and later are expected to go back to the model where current taxes pay their benefits. That should work, but some people are forecasting Social Security will still have a shortfall....it should be noted that the same people have been forecasting a shortfall for a long time now, they just keep moving out the year when it starts.
boppers
(16,588 posts)The cash is long spent.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)It would be monumentally stupid to simply hoard the cash. Inflation would mean the trust fund would gradually be worth less and less money.
Instead, it was invested in bonds that 1) pay interest higher than inflation so the trust fund grows, and 2) from an entity that can't go bankrupt and thus can't default on the bonds.
boppers
(16,588 posts)LOLOLOLOL.... Right, nations never, ever, default.
Wow, the world truly has gone insane.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Because they can print more money to cover the debt. Might cause hyperinflation, but they can avoid default.
The countries that have defaulted or are about to default don't have their own currency, either through being part of the Euro or via having a currency pegged to something else.
former9thward
(32,064 posts)Many on the left deride gold as an investment -- saying it is some right wing promoted investment. People who have listened to that bad advice have lost money for 11 years now as gold increases in price every year. Why should those on the right get all of that money?
The stock market is moving up on low volume as the 'average' investor has stayed out. I am afraid they will stay out until the stock market is near a top and then they will get in again. Of course there will be a correction and the small investor will bail. Exactly the wrong strategy.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)What's being derided is the idea that gold is more than an investment. Entities like Goldline market their investments as somehow magical because gold was once a currency. They market based on the false premise that fiat currency will suddenly become worthless and we'll all turn to gold for currency. That isn't going to happen - even if they're right on societal collapse, shiny yellow metal isn't going to be desired in the immediate aftermath.
If you're buying gold because you think the price will go up, and you think of the gold as just a commodity, then you're doing it right.
If you're buying gold because the Mayans used gold and the dollar is going to vanish and you think gold bars will make you rich in the coming dystopian nightmare, you are doing it wrong.
former9thward
(32,064 posts)This means the dollar's value will go down and every other commodity, gold included, that is priced in dollars will go up in price.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)During a normal economy, yes printing money would be inflationary.
But we're not in a normal economy, and haven't been for years. In a depressed economy like ours, printing money doesn't actually cause inflation (and hasn't for the last few years).
But back to your post: You say you're buying gold because inflation will make it worth more....that's not actually true. Because you're relying on inflation to increase the value of gold, the value of everything else also went up the same amount. You've done better than stuffing dollars into your mattress, but that's about it. (Assuming you're basing the investment decision only on your expectations of inflation.)
You should really aim for investments that return better than the rate of inflation - then you'd actually be making money instead of not losing money.
former9thward
(32,064 posts)Far higher than inflation. I took a buy out of my pension from a state agency in Illinois and have increased it 12 times in the stock market over the last 8 years.
I don't know if you have noticed but the world's central banks who are printing this money have become large buyers of gold. The 1% know what they are doing to the 99%.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)Yes, many a right winger really started pushing gold as it neared peak. Those are the type who just exploit situations. Some on the other hand, saw the economy going down the shitter early on in the Bush years and went long on gold when it was under $400 an oz.
So yeah, if gold's at 1800 an oz and you've got someone telling you to buy and you'll make a bunch of money, tell them you watched that boat sail from the pier and to go find another sucker.
Julie--currently long on Detroit
former9thward
(32,064 posts)Gold has much higher to go. At every hundred level people have been saying gold was at a top. It wasn't. It still isn't. If you don't want to participate, fine, it is your lost money.
BTW I heard gold being touted by Air America hosts so to say this is right wing is a slander.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)But now ain't the time to get in.
I'd like to touch base with a you a year from now and see what gold's at.
Julie
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)She wants economic problems to help defeat President Obama. That's been clear for a very long time.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)She has been a moderate liberal for many years, now.
MineralMan
(146,324 posts)She did say she was a Democrat, didn't she? I remember her very well, since she was married to a man who represented my district in California. He was a republican. On a few occasions, I met them...fundraising events for charities, mainly. Arianna is a person I would not trust under any circumstances, to be quite frank.
She does say she's a Democrat. That's easy to say, really. After her divorce, she found a way to make a very nice living. Being a Democrat was very useful to her. But, when I look at the work product of those who posted articles on her website, I saw just what I expected to see.
You may believe whatever you can about her. My belief is different.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)As for making $$$, that's a good thing, right? You want to make $, I want to make $, we all want to make $.
People who post or have had columns on her site: Alec Baldwin, Alan Alda, and other progressives.
Don't forget...she SOLD Huffpost. She is no longer the owner.
killbotfactory
(13,566 posts)As do a lot of people in the punditdome.
Who needs reasonable analysis when you can use kneejerk cynicism instead?
JI7
(89,260 posts)a few days ago and they were discussing some stupid attacks on Obama. and she kept saying how the republicans should go after Obama on the economy, jobs etc because he is weak in those areas and things aren't really getting better.
lets say we weren't getting the good news recently with the economy. if you claim to be a liberal how can you say republicans would be able to go after Obama on that area considering the things republicans support/oppose.
i really can't stand her, and yeah, she is about the money. if it was anyone else who made the aol deal she would have been going on about how bad it was. huffington post is mostly tabloid crap now, not that it was much better before .
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)I've been watching her on interview shows for maybe 20 years or so. She may not be far left, but that's okay. Most people aren't, just like most people aren't far right.
She was a Republican when she was young decades ago, married to a rich Republican.
Sounds like some people are jealous of her money, maybe?
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)last year. It started getting better end of 2011, long enough now that it looks like the rally will stick this year.
frylock
(34,825 posts)stop it.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)well, he had told his listeners in 2008 or maybe 2007 to get out of the market. He said during the years until this year that things are looking up, but all the indicators aren't right for it to be a solid market and not to get back in yet. He finally said in Jan. 2012 to get back in, that the stock market rise seemed solid and it'd be a good year.
JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)Including the DU Rethug/Anti-Dem cadre.
Julie
spanone
(135,858 posts)they give him no credit whatsoever
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)So what really is being cheered here?
Gamblers and professional investors who create nothing but arguably do harm in some cases are making money by inflating a bubble.
is this REALLY a good thing for everyone? A sign of a strong economy in some healthy way?
I doubt it.
More like kids laying in the sandbox.
just1voice
(1,362 posts)Criminal speculators control the markets regardless of useless predictions.
name not needed
(11,660 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)the doom and gloom folks are now struggling to figure out what to scream about next.
And of course Arianna has moved on.