Rare Weather Pattern over US — Moving East to West

[Junkdrawer]

Discussed here, along with cautions for the hot season, by Paul Douglas.

ClimateCentral:

The heat wave that has built across the eastern U.S. — roasting cities from Memphis to Washington to Boston in a stifling blanket of heat and humidity — has had one strange characteristic that meteorologists cannot yet explain in a long-term climate context. Rather than moving west to east, as typical weather patterns do in the Northern Hemisphere, weather systems across the country have moved in the opposite direction, like a drunken driver on a dark stretch of highway, drifting from east to west during the past two weeks.



....

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/07/20/rare-weather-pattern-over-us-moving-east-to-west/

Just thankful a hurricane wasn’t in the Atlantic.

Hope this doesn’t become a trend, because most hurricanes recurve out to sea as they move North.

[blkmusclmachine]

1. .

.

[IrishAyes]

2. I hope so too.

But if it does, I might have made the right decision to retire to the middle of the (groan) MidWest, even though it was only because I couldn't afford to go farther north.

[Warpy]

3. I did my homework and moved to the high desert

and I'll probably die out here, I'm so spoiled by the low humidity.

Most days, you can have a glass with ice in it and there will be no condensation on the outside, it evaporates too quickly.

You can leave an open bag of chips on the table overnight and they won't get soggy.

People out here complain when the humidity goes over 20%.

We do get snow at this altitude, but it's usually gone by midday.

AC is by evaporation, not refrigeration, and usually adds $15/month to the electric bill.

[IrishAyes]

20. I had a little horse ranch in the high desert outback

before retirement, but never learned to love the climate even though I learned a lot of desert survival skills.

If $ had allowed, I'd have retired to Calais, ME just a stone's throw across the border from Canada. In fact Calais at least used to be the only American municipality to get its water from a foreign country! Well, at least I made it far north enough to be in the same gardening zone as southern ME. It's RedNeckLand but they found out I bite back, so things have quieted down a bit. And we're about 850 feet above sea level, my part of town's a good hundred feet above the local river, so no flood worries. Things could be worse.

My dad used to start a winter's day by running around the outside of the house in his bare feet because it jump starts your immune system and makes the rest of the day feel easier by comparison. So you can understand my preference for colder climes.

[Warpy]

24. Well, I chose carefully

and being 6000 feet up means a lot of the bugs die off over the sometimes bitter winters we get up here. The coldest night here has been -10F and the hottest day has been 107F and that was an all time record. Usually summers are in the low to mid 90s and that's actually not bad with low humidity. Right now, it's 86 in here and I have a fan directed toward a wall to get air moving slowly in the rest of the room and I'm quite comfy. I haven't used the cooler in three weeks or so.

Your dad was a nutter but a fun one. Actually, they've found a correlation between icy feet and the onset of typical winter diseases, so he'd been courting disaster. My own feet get cold easily, so I live in Acorn socks all winter, wool when they're all being washed.

[IrishAyes]

29. Well, I was a daddy's girl

And I'm probably even nuttier! As for the icy feet, I'm sure the study was valid. However, they never watched Dad and later, me following close behind, race the devil. A short quick burst of cold makes the already healthy even hardier. Look at the Polar Bear clubs. When I lived in NYC, I never turned on the shower's hot water in winter. But you can bet I took fast ones.

[RC]

37. When I was in Hawaii, I never tuned on the shower's hot water either.

The cold water was never too cold, just refreshingly slightly cool.

[IrishAyes]

51. Well, Hawaii ain't NYC in December either!

I'm happier with icicles hanging off the end of my nose. Telling you, pal, warm bare ground in December isn't natural.

[RC]

55. Yeah, I know.

45 years in North Dakota. I miss it after living in KCMO for 2½ years. Still not used to spring after every snow. The first snow in the fall is supposed to be the last to melt in the spring. I'm comfortable shoveling snow at 20° in my shirt (short) shelves down here.
Anything over 80° is too hot.

[classof56]

43. Warpy, when I was a kid I lived in Las Vegas NM, and at first it was quite a shock for me

I spent my earlier childhood in the Pacific Northwest and suddenly found myself living at 6500 feet or so. Part of the shock was the bitterly cold winters, where I remember, if I'm recalling correctly, it one time being so cold ice crystals were floating in the air. Brrr! Also remember huge dust storms rolling through. Haboobs, I think they're called? Like the ones that hit Phoenix on occasion. I was too young to really appreciate the history and culture of the area, which I later came to understand is quite fascinating. We left after a few years, moved north to Denver.

I'm now residing in the Oregon high desert, about half as high in altitude, but I love it. One of my favorite TV series is Longmire on A&E, which is filmed in and near Las Vegas, evoking lots of memories for me!

Glad you are enjoying beautiful New Mexico!

[madokie]

58. I like you're dads idea :-)

As I get older I like the winters more than the summers. Used to be right the opposite for me.

[LittleGirl]

23. waves from Tucson area

cheers.

[paleotn]

42. 20% humidity. Wow! Just wow!

Hard for me to imagine 20% humidity this time of year. 72% here right now. Not bad considering what we've had since early June. More than double our normal rainfall here in north western NC. Not terribly hot around here usually. We rarely use AC, but someone could make a fortune selling dehumidifiers round here.

[hedgehog]

4. I didn't realize this - but I can tell you the 15 minute windstorm that came through Oswego County

(North of Syracuse) Friday night was like nothing I've seen after living here since 1984!

I think a lot of fronts have been crossing my area from odd directions over the last year. That can be of significant local concern, because how a front passes over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario can make the difference between a dusting and three foot of snow!

[AverageJoe90]

5. Strange indeed, though I wouldn't jump to conclusions just yet. n/t

(Just to clarify, I didn't say that Junkdrawer HAD jumped to conclusions, in case some were confused or whatnot.)

[RobertEarl]

7. Jump to what conclusion?

That the climate is changing? Gawd forbid someone think that, right?

[AverageJoe90]

8. I didn't say or imply that he HAD done so, by the way.

Nor is this one particular event necessarily connected to climate change, either(it could be, maybe. But nobody knows).

[RobertEarl]

13. You did hear the Arctic ice is melting, right?

Is the climate at the pole changing? Yep. And knowing that one thing leads to another is all you need to know that the climate is changing and the weather patterns changing are a sign of the climate changing. Many people knew this, and now, you do too.

Really quite simple isn't it?

[AverageJoe90]

30. Umm.....yeah. I heard about it. Everyone on here has(dumb question, TBH).

But what does this one singular pattern have to do with anything, necessarily?

Now, granted, if we start seeing more and more of these pop up at higher frequencies, then we can certainly ask that question then.

[bahrbearian]

14. OK I'll say it and I will Jump to the conclusion we are now FUBR

[kestrel91316]

6. We've had the weirdest winds continually out of the east here in SoCal the past couple of weeks.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

34. I just moved from Anaheim to Vegas in time for the worse thunderstorms anyone here has seen....

This one was cool because it looked like it was coming right at me and then changed it's mind.

[Politicalboi]

54. Those are so cool

I live in Lancaster Ca, we are expecting some thundershowers off and on through tomorrow. I hope we have some rain and lightning too. We need it.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

56. To me it's like watching fireworks. Michigan puts on some good shows too.

[Ecumenist]

36. WEIRDLY WINDY up here in the north state too and we're EXPECTING A STORM this week!

It NEVER rains in summer but the last 4 years have seen at least one heavy rain in the summer! WEIRD.

[kestrel91316]

38. Yeah, it's kinda overcast and threatening here. Rare as hen's teeth in July.

[bluedigger]

9. Send rain!

[tosh]

22. Gladly!

We've had it for weeks on end...totally saturated.

I'll try with all my might to WILL it over to you.

[peoli]

10. A video about the jet stream I posted earlier ...link below... things are changing...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017133252

[Junkdrawer]

16. + 1000...been following Dr. Jennifer Francis' work since last year....

Many think that this is about a reduction of the polar-to-equator temperature gradient.

[truedelphi]

59. I cannot state what could possibly acount for it -

Earth changes are aplenty for sure.

But there is another phenomena at work. Only Sh-h!

[obxhead]

11. I've noticed that east to west pattern for the last 2 months

I work outdoors, so I follow the weather closely.

For the most part this entire summer has been an east to west pattern on the east coast. Some stronger than others, but most of our storms this year have come from the coast.

[AverageJoe90]

32. Definitely strange to be sure.

And down here in the Lone Star State, we got hit with a westward-moving low this last week, giving us a fair showering of rain & T-storms. Definitely a strange pattern, though, TBH, this one particular event may or may not necessarily be connected to climate change......we simply don't know(In other words: where's the proof?).

Hopefully you guys got some relief from that heat wave, by the way. I hear some places were damn near 100 for a few days.

[obxhead]

52. We got nailed!

However I consider myself double lucky.

Last summer we had a wave come through that topped 105 for 20 days straight with heat indexes.

On this 6 day wave I had LASIK surgery so I was able to hide in my ice cold basement for the worst of it.

Where's the proof? That is a hard answer. How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop? How many odd weather events does it take to realize serious climate change isn't just possible, but upon us?

The answer is terrifying, because when we say "yes, climate change is real", it's far too late and we're already fucked.

[AverageJoe90]

60. I'd be careful about that, though.

Far too often, we've let crazy paranoia & fearmongering get the best of us. Sorry to say, but this: " it's far too late and we're already fucked." is a perfect example of such, as was that "Arctic Methane Emergency Group&quot more like Arctic Methane Fearmongering Group if you ask me!) near-term extinction agitprop that was all over the place right around this time last year.

And then we need to think about how the .1% might be taking advantage of all this as well; sadly, it seems, they've been two steps ahead of us for the past decade or so, including by playing up both absurd extremes to induce fatigue(yes, both doomerism AND denialism have been used as weapons, not just the latter.).

Pessimism is something we may all feel from time to time, and is perfectly forgivable. But let us beware of sneaky snakes and loonies who screech of imminent doom and collapse of civilization, or extinction of humanity, or the constant and ceaseless cries of "it's worse than we thought! it's worse than we thought!". Not only are they the dupes & useful idiots of our enemies, but there may be indeed be moles in our midst as well.....

[obxhead]

61. agreed

I agree with you... of course there a but....

Not only does industrialization and climate change threaten us, but overpopulation as well.

Will the human race die out? Maybe, maybe not. I do however expect a mass die off in our future, potentially in my lifetime.

I agree with everything else you said though. Change is coming though. I think some of it will catch us by surprise and disappoint (sadly) some.

[AverageJoe90]

62. TBH.....

There's no chance of us dying out, not thanks to just AGW alone, anyway....Contrary to the insistence of some. Even a mass sudden/short-term partial die-off is extremely unlikely(honestly, Apophis hitting the Earth in 2036 is more likely!).
Overpopulation may indeed be a problem, I guess that may be true, but just the number of humans living now is far from the only factor to consider; sanitation, economic corruption, and advancement in certain areas of technology, etc., all need to be considered.

With that said, I do believe that it's likely that we will hit a plateau sometime during this century, and China & India will probably see the most notable declines. I am concerned that famine & disease may in fact play a role, not just in China & India, but the Third World as well, particularly in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Nigeria, etc. But this decline will likely be quite slow and play out incrementally over many decades.....not exactly what I'd call a "mass die-off", TBH.

Climate change is a problem, and will likely continue to be an issue for the next couple of centuries until things stabilize. However, though, it's important to realize that very few, if any of the worst-case scenarios, apart from Arctic ice melt(And even in the case of the Arctic, we could easily have avoided the collapses of both 2007 & 2012 for a while), have come to pass. In fact, Co2 sensitivity isn't as high as we first thought, either, neither is the amount of methane in immediate(within 100 years in this case) danger of being released(in fact, more recent studies are saying that the sooner we act, the less methane to worry about).....it also turns out that paleo-climate data wasn't exactly a perfect yardstick for measuring possible future climate change, either(not even close, in fact, as far as sensitivity is concerned).

So while we've got a long road ahead, we're not exactly doomed, either, and we have still been making some progress. Really, the best thing for us to do, is keep our heads clear as much as possible, and keep looking forward.

[NewJeffCT]

12. and we had that west coast hurricane

that spawned Sharknado.

[abelenkpe]

44. LOL! Nt

[underpants]

15. I see a butterfly that hates its mother

oh that's not a Rorschach

[dsharp88]

17. It's almost as if the Equator has moved north

[Junkdrawer]

18. See post #16 and the video in the post #10 Also...

http://skepticalscience.com/jetstream-guide.html#climate

[Blue_In_AK]

19. I'm visiting in Littleton, CO

Weird to see the storm clouds building in the east instead of over the mountains last night, but I'm not here enough to know whether that's abnormal.

Anchorage has been really warm this summer, which is nice but really unusual.

[Junkdrawer]

21. Huge amount of tundra melt this year all over the Arctic....

and THAT could well lead to increased methane and CO2 emissions.

[Blue_In_AK]

46. Oh, yeah,

I'm sure the atmosphere is already much different up there. I hope we're all adapting.

[Esse Quam Videri]

35. Welcome to Colorado

[Blue_In_AK]

45. Thanks.

We've been coming down the past three summers to visit my daughter and her family. Nice weather you've been providing.

[fizzgig]

49. upslope can blow it from east to west sometimes

i'm used to watching the storms build up to the east of us, but i don't actually know how common it is for them to actually track that way.

[NutmegYankee]

25. "because most hurricanes recurve out to sea as they move North"

Heh, been hit twice in two years. Irene and Sandy both left me with no power for days and damage to the yard.

[Junkdrawer]

27. Check this image:

Now imagine even more of those "fish storms" being sucked in...

[NutmegYankee]

41. Trust me, I'm aware.

[BlueStreak]

26. That's once every ~300 years, if I understand those odds

He said "the chances of this happening in June are 'point 3' percent." That is roughly once every 333 years if that is literally what the analyst meant to say.

That is one of the hallmarks of radical climate change. A single event doesn't prove anything, because such an event probably happened sometime n the past. But Sandy was said to be a 100-year storm, and Katrina was along those same odds. When we start having "100 year events" every 2 or 3 years, that is an indicator of a real break with our natural history.

[Junkdrawer]

28. Just read Sandy was a once in 700 year storm....

You really do have to be a member of the Flat Earth society to not see the trend...

[Junkdrawer]

33. BTW: Hurricane Sandy's Track Shows It Was A 1-In-700 Year Storm

Hurricane Sandy's devastating storm track is a rare one among hurricanes; a new statistical analysis estimates that the track of the storm — which took an unusual left-hand turn in the Atlantic before slamming into the East Coast — has an average probability of happening only once every 700 years.

"The particular shape of Sandy's trajectory is very peculiar, and that's very rare, on the order of once every 700 years," said Timothy Hall, a senior scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies who co-authored the study. That means that in any particular year, the chance of such a storm track happening is 0.0014 percent.

The storm's near-perpendicular strike on the coast was a major factor in the severe flooding seen in New York, New Jersey and other nearby states, Hall added. But the rareness of the storm's track doesn't mean that the coast is safe from other severe storms. [Jersey Shore: Before & After Hurricane Sandy]

"We don't want to lead with the misimpression that we don't have to worry, [that] it's going to be 700 years until we have another surge. That's not true," Hall told LiveScience.

While Hall's initial research, detailed in the May 28 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, assumed a "steady state" system in which climate is not changing, he and others are also studying how climate change influences hurricane tracks. Those studies will help determine if the rarity of paths like the one Sandy took might change in a warming world.

....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/16/hurricane-sandy-track_n_3606456.html

[Lucky Luciano]

39. How does sandy compare to the 1938 and labor day hurricanes that struck NYC?

Those were really bad too, but technology of today might have given better warning.

[NewJeffCT]

47. The 1938 hurricane hammered Connecticut

The '38 hurricane was more powerful and caused more death, but less property damage (probably due to a smaller overall population at the time fewer homes)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane

[FarCenter]

48. The 1893 New York Hurricane was more similar to Sandy.

Category 1 hitting Brooklyn and Queens.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_New_York_hurricane

[BlueStreak]

40. 700 years retrospectively -- 30 years looking forward

I have heard some people who should be somewhat expert say that the odds of another Sandy in the future are something like 30-50 years. Of course we cannot pinpoint statistical projections, but if a 700-year cycle turns into a 50 year cycle, that is a pretty big change going on.

[AverageJoe90]

31. Edit: Replied to wrong person. Sorry. =O

[Elwood P Dowd]

50. Its been unusually cool down here in South Alabama all Summer.

Lots of clouds, showers, and most days in June and July have been in the 82-88 degree range. I've only seen 90 on my outside thermometer twice the past two months. It only made it to 85 today, and 90-95 is the norm for late July.

[Politicalboi]

53. It's probably from the wind turbines

Blowing the clouds back and forth. Tear them down and put up oil wells.

I mean, why not. Some idiot Repuke said something like we could run out of wind.

[Rex]

57. I heard a repuke honestly say that if they turn them ALL on at once

(wind farms) it will blow Earth out of orbit and therefore we need to invest in safer energy like nuclear and coal.

[mick063]

63. Once the Hadley Cell becomes supersized, all bets are off. The Ferrel Cell will be influenced.

Who knows how much the Polar Cell has already changed from the melting of ice caps?



You thought weather was unpredictable before.

Just wait.