Brown Leads Warren in Massachusetts

[babylonsister]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/17/brown_leads_warren_in_massachusetts.html

Brown Leads Warren in Massachusetts


A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) now has a 9-point lead over likely challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), 49% to 40%.

Separately, 45% of respondents said that Brown deserved to be reelected, 39% said he did not, and 16% were undecided.

[AlinPA]

1. Should I say "What's the matter with Massachusetts"? I don't get it.

[kentuck]

2. It's better to be the underdog...

It's difficult to be the underdog when you are raising millions of dollars out of the state of Massachusetts. Money is not always the answer to winning elections.

[book_worm]

3. out of several recent polls on this race this is the only one which I've seen showing Brown ahead

[a kennedy]

4. another article.....

WASHINGTON -- Two polls, two different results. A new public poll of Massachusetts voters released Thursday night shows Sen. Scott Brown with a statistically significant lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, contradicting the results of a survey released earlier in the week that showed a much closer result and gave Warren a slight edge.

The new survey conducted by the Suffolk University Political Research Center for Boston television station WHDH (7News), from Feb. 11 to Feb. 15, gives Brown a 9 percentage point lead over Warren (49 percent to 40 percent) with 2 percent opting for another candidate and 9 percent undecided.

A second poll released on Tuesday, conducted by the Massachusetts think tank MassINC on behalf of Boston NPR station WBUR, gave Warren a three percentage point edge (46 percent to 43 percent) that was not large enough to be considered statistically significant.

The Suffolk University findings, if accurate, represent a departure not only from the MassINC survey, but also from two polls late last year that both showed Warren slightly ahead. A live-interviewer survey conducted by the Boston Herald and UMass Lowell in early December gave Warren a seven percentage point lead (49 percent to 42 percent). An Internet poll conducted in early November by UMass Amherst showed Warren leading by four percentage points (43 percent to 39 percent).

The two new surveys were both conducted by telephone using live interviewers, and both called voters on both landline and mobile phones. The Suffolk University survey interviewed 600 registered voters in Massachusetts, while the MassINC survey interviewed 503 voters likely to vote in 2012. Typically, surveys that screen for likely voters, like the MassINC poll, are more likely to produce results slightly more favorable to Republicans, but in this case Warren did worse on the broader sampling of registered voters on the Suffolk University poll.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/17/scott-brown-elizabeth-warren-poll_n_1282277.html

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Likely voters vs. registered voters

And many folks don't know Warren yet, and/or don't know Brown's voting record.

They will.

Brown will win in a landslide.

[a kennedy]

8. Love your optimism!

and hope you are right.

[MattBaggins]

10. You want Brown to win?

[JackRiddler]

16. I think Manny wrote the wrong name and kennedy read the right one.

Or something.

[CTyankee]

12. Huh? Brown? Don't you mean Warren?

[Arkana]

15. Um...why would he win in a landslide again?

[bklyncowgirl]

5. I don't like the wording of this poll "Deserves to be Re-elected" may not mean "I'll vote for him."

You could take "Deserves to be Re-elected" to mean "Well he hasn't done anything all that bad and I sort of like him personally." or "He hasn't been idicted and he has not been caught in bed with an underage boy or anything like that." Some of these people might actually be leaning towards Warren.

[Chiyo-chichi]

21. More to the point... only 45% think he deserves reelection, yet 49% say they would vote for him?

So four percent of respondents plan to vote for him even though they're not sure whether he deserves reelection?

[still_one]

9. A lot of undecideds, still it is quite amazing how the state that gave us Kennedy produces this poll

Especially after the republican war against women and the economic disaster that republican policies have caused, that they are even considering relecting brown which would surely hurt any chance of the Democrats controlling the Senate

I hope those in Massachusetts are enjoying Social Security, Medicare, and women's rights because they are all endangered species if the republican take control

[ProSense]

11. How

the hell is this possible?

[Arkana]

18. Lack of nationwide coverage, plus Warren's not even the official nominee yet.

And neither side has started spending money. There were PACs doing it for a while, but the campaigns have barely started.

Plus, this was conducted before Warren retaliates for Scotty supporting the Blunt amendment.

[ProSense]

19. I'm really

questioning this poll. Looking at the crosstabs results for Democrats:

20 percent believe Brown deserves re-election?

19 percent would vote for Brown and only 69 percent would vote for Warren?

49 percent of Democrats believe it's beneficial to have one Democrat and one Republican in the Senate?

Also:

48 percent of union members would vote for Brown and only 41 percent would vote for Warren?

38 percent of minorities would vote for Brown and only 35 percent would vote for Warren?

Another thing, what's with the polling questions on Hillary?

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_THURSDAY_TABLES_MA_Statewide_Feb_16_2012.pdf

[newspeak]

22. wait, the state that voted for ted kennedy

thinks brown, instead of being a thorn for any progress, deserves re-election? And union members believe an anti-union, anti-labor, pro-corporate shill should be re-elected?

Is there some kind of disconnect here? a teabagger who has roadblocked policies to help the economy and the people, deserves to be re-elected. Definitely down the rabbit hole.

[Yavin4]

24. See My Post Below

A sample size of 600 is representative 5 million people?

[Arkana]

27. The state voted for her in the primaries by a huge margin

and although we went blue in 2008 they're still a bit butthurt it wasn't her.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. Not good news

but it's early still. For somebody who was relatively unknown only a few months ago and hasn't even been nominated, she's doing extremely well IMHO. I have a feeling that the debates plus going after Brown about his boneheaded support for Roy Blunt's insurance coverage amendment will change a few minds, particularly in Massachusetts.

[bigdarryl]

26. Maybe they just don't like female candidates in that state

I have spoken to several African Americans who lived in that state over a period of time and they all say that it's one of the most RACIST states they have ever been in

[GusFring]

14. arent they going to be on the ballot with Obama?

And when do the debates start. Warren is going to make him look like an idiot.

[great white snark]

17. Boggles the mind.

Luckily there is time left to go left.

[Broderick]

20. Polls mean nothing

The flip and flap around here when polls are good, or polls are bad so far in advance amuses me. I am not concerned. Polling companies want controversy and traffic. Seems the only polls that really matter are at the voting booth. I seriously think some of these companies come out with this stuff just to get attention. Just my humble opinion. Don't let them get ya down.

[Yavin4]

23. n = 600 ?!?!?!

Sample size of 600?

The Suffolk University/7News poll, which was released late Thursday night, asked 600 likely voters across Massachusetts which candidate they would support in a head-to-head matchup, if the election was held today.

http://www.boston.com/Boston/metrodesk/2012/02/poll-puts-scott-brown-ahead-elizabeth-warren-senate-race/PcpUiX0lh0GoJmKCgWtjSP/index.html

There are over 5 million adults in Mass. in total. A sample size of 600 is skewed.

[bigdarryl]

25. 38 percent minorities will vote for Brown ?

I call that Total BULLSHIT!!! there is no way any rethug in 2012 going to carry that many minorities