WaPo: A GOP nightmare scenario- What if Santorum wins most primaries/polls but Romney's the nominee?

[highplainsdem]

Posted by political scientist Jonathan Bernstein on Greg Sargent's Plum Line blog at Wapo:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/a-gop-nightmare-scenario/2012/02/16/gIQAmjy2HR_blog.html

In most GOP caucus states, the voting is not strictly connected to delegate selection. If Santorum’s voters don’t understand the procedures, it’s very possible he could win the vote and yet pick up only a handful of delegates. Indeed, that may have already happened in caucus states he’s won, like Iowa, Colorado, and Minnesota.

-snip-

Because there’s such a bewildering mix of delegate selection rules in the Republican process, a smart campaign can focus on the best places to win delegates. But it’s hard to make good strategic choices when you don’t even have a pollster! We’ll see this on February 28, when Romney will apparently win Arizona’s winner-take-all primary even if Santorum does hang on for a Michigan win, where the delegates are apportioned in a complex mix of rules. It’s very possible that Romney and Santorum could split the two states, giving Santorum great headlines, while Romney cleans up in delegates.

It’s not impossible — though it’s very unlikely — that the popularity contest could leave Santorum as the clear, unambiguous winner, while Romney becomes the clear, unambiguous nominee. Imagine Santorum finishing with a five point edge or more in votes — even as Romney gets crowned the GOP candidate for president.

If that happens, it’s hard to see rank-and-file Republicans accepting the outcome as legitimate, even if the Republican partisan press tries hard to sell it. And it’s even harder to see Romney kicking off the fall campaign successfully if half his party believes he stole the nomination.

[BumRushDaShow]

1. They made their own beds

and laid down with the fleabaggers.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Call in the Supreme Court, of course

and let them decide on the basis of the number of flown-in 'protestors' in Brooks Brothers' suits from each campaign.

[Yavin4]

14. If the SCOTUS is true to form

then they will give the nomination to Jeb Bush.

[DJ13]

3. "If that happens, it’s hard to see rank-and-file Republicans accepting the outcome"

Good.

Its about time those simpletons realized their party no longer represents their interests.

That could lead to a real breakup of the GOP, which might improve our chances in getting more left leaning politicians elected.

[rhett o rick]

4. This is really silly. Some apparently think that there are thinking GOP'ers.

Even if most want Santorium, if the party tells them that Romney is their choice, they will fall in line like the good little authoritarian followers they are.

[postulater]

5. Thats what conventions are for.

Primaries are just beauty contests and marketing testing.

[Old and In the Way]

7. Conventions today are more about validating the primary winner.

It's all show and structured to get everyone behind the candidate. If Mitt is a wounded duck going into the convention with the delegate votes, but not the popular voter mandate...I think this is far worse then going into the convention with a ballot fight because no one has enough delegates to secure a 1st ballot nomination. Brokered conventions haven't occurred in almost 50 years.

If that happens as the OP suggests, I suspect that Santorum is the VP. That would be the only conceivable way that they can possible unite coming out of the convention.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. Prior to '68 you are correct

But these days they also validate the candidate

[NAO]

6. Bush v Gore

They would get a taste of what it's like to win the popular vote and lose the election.

[Efilroft Sul]

8. Oh, snap.

I can't believe I was the first to comment on your post.

Ba-da-ba-ba-baaa, I'm lovin' it.

[Historic NY]

9. All out RW war......

The Christian VS The Mormon.

[Arugula Latte]

10. Cage fight to the death. My money's on Lil' Ricky.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. You want a nightmare scenario? And this one is pretty bad

but truly want a nightmare scenario? A brokered convention when none of the contestants sow it up and we get somebody like oh Christ Christie...

Now that is truly the real nightmare here folks.

[Obamacare]

15. Whose afraid of Chrispie Creme?

Obama, would squash his fatass into oblivion!!!

[Arkana]

24. No one is going to steal the nomination at the eleventh hour.

That shit only happens on "The West Wing", and it didn't even happen there.

As much as I hate them and everything they stand for, I would agree with any one of the GOP candidates who got their hackles raised at an attempted hijacking of the convention by Daniels or Christie or (barf) Jeb Bush. None of those guys were vetted. They didn't have to go through the meat grinder that is the primary season--shouldn't primary voters get a crack at them first?

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. And that is why it is a nightmare scenario

No, not for dems by the way. But you think the reactionary wing is well, reactionary right now...

[Canuckistanian]

13. This must be some definition of 'nightmare' that I'm not familiar with

For me, it's win-win.

[Tx4obama]

16. Well this is what I hope ...

I hope the majority of GOPers will vote for Santorum in the primaries
and that Romney gets the nomination at the convention.
Then there will be a bunch of pissed off GOPers that will either stay home on Election Day or go to the polls and 'write-in' someone else in.
And then President Obama will win by a HUGE landslide.
Works for me

[regnaD kciN]

17. "What if"...? Well, for one thing...

...I have a good laugh!

[jimlup]

18. You gotta start to hope that the damage extends far and wide... say I dunno like to 2016? /nt

[joshcryer]

19. Hillary got 300k more votes than Obama. It meant little.

The delegate process, the caucus / primary divide doesn't really represent the people, as usual.

Primaries should be done like Venezuela. One vote. In every state. On the same day.

It wouldn't hurt to have a centrally designed voting system, unified across the board (ie, everyone votes one way and one way only).

But I'm going on a tangent here. In the end it wouldn't matter, as it didn't matter during the Democratic primaries. It's all about the delegates. Just like the Presidential election is all about the Electoral Votes.

The people be damned.

(Not showing sympathy for Santorum here, mind you.)

[jeff47]

22. The issue many have with one vote on one day

Is that results in cities dominating the political process. You could win the nomination without setting foot outside the Northeast and west coast.

So there's some reasonable complaints that such a system would result in the lower population areas of the country being completely ignored politically. You might say "so what? That's not where the people are.". Yeah, but it creates a lot of problems.

I'm in upstate NY. Back in "the old days", the state senate was based on geography and the state house was based on population. So while NY City did have an enormous influence on the state, the state government still gave some crumbs to upstate. A lawsuit challenged this system based on unequal representation, and won. As a result, both state houses are now based on population.

Upstate NY now receives virtually nothing from the state, because upstate NY votes aren't needed in the statehouse. There's an enormous amount of decline and decay up here, as industry withers away. Large employers are moving to states where they get various incentives, and upstate NY can't offer any because they can't get any through the legislature. Meanwhile, any road that isn't an Interstate or highway is very much in need of repair - this is the snowiest place in the US, so the roads take a beating every winter.

The problem will probably be solved in about 20 years, as everywhere except Buffalo and Syracuse will end up pretty much empty.

Repeating this on a national scale will cause problems. Our current system is nowhere near perfect, but one single primary isn't a good solution. Especially when you're the party that believes government can help people - nothing creates more Republicans than government abandonment.

[PhoenixAbove]

20. I simply can't see the Xtian right voting for Romey

even if he does manage to win over the convention. I think the repubs have a nightmare on their hands no matter who ends up as their candidate. Hopefully, most the voters will remember all the CRAZY they saw during the primaries.

[PhoenixAbove]

21. Then again...

there is the problem of that Kenyan born socialist in the whitehouse so who knows which way the wingbats will vote.

(P.S. They've got me so crazy just watching their antics that I'm replying to my own posts.)

[Arkana]

23. Then the DNC pops the bubbly

and Barack Obama goes on vacation for the three/four months of the GE.

[nanabugg]

26. I think it will be worse for the GOP is Santorum wins. The religious war of the wings will begin.

I know quite a few Mormons and they are generally pissed about the way the RW-evangelicals have been treating Mitt's beliefs. I don't believe they will vote for a RW-evangelical. I think they will vote for O or sit it out if Mitt is not the nominee. It's going to be interesting. We all know what the RW-fanatics are like as evidenced by their outright lies and distortions about the President. They can be some hateful folks.