Just a Question for Discussion. What if Gasoline hits $10.00 a gallon in the U.S.A?

[Stuart G]

What would that mean if that happens in the next year or so? Free market and all? I ain't got a clue...don't know.
Just an idea for discussion ..

[Scuba]

1. It would crash the economy and wreak havoc on virtually everything.

[Laelth]

55. On the plus side, a lot of manufacturing jobs would come home.

Once oil becomes prohibitively expensive, it becomes less economical to rely of cheap, foreign labor.

-Laelth

[Scuba]

56. There'd be no manufacturing as the markets would dry up.

[Laelth]

58. I seriously doubt that.

We had manufacturing before oil, and I think we'll have it after oil too.

-Laelth

[former9thward]

74. We had horses before oil.

You think we are going back to that too?

[hrmjustin]

2. The end of our economy likely.

[NoOneMan]

3. Economic meltdown

It may not happen within the near future. Thats very steep.

I currently pay $5.50 at the pump, but drive rarely. I don't think these prices are great for the local economy.

Basically, it means less surplus (or none at all). Yesterday's surplus from production is now being milked to pay for the energy necessary for today's production. When there is nothing left but paying for energy for production, then we are all working for free. Thats about when there is no longer a point in working in the modern economy.

Despite what every economist wants to tell you about capital or labor, our world runs on energy. The end of cheap energy is the end of our economy, no matter what fiscal fixes you try and put in place.

[Stuart G]

7. It could happen if the unrest in the Mideast errupts

into the worst possible way..

[NoOneMan]

9. Only due to speculation, not supply and demand

The plurality of US oil comes from Canada, you know. Such an event would probably act as a catalyst for increased ethanol production and EVs.

But if that did come, it would be a devastating shock. With the US on shaky ground already, it will probably put the US down for at least 1 complete decade.

[NickB79]

34. Oil is a globally traded commodity

And the oil companies that drill and extract oil in the US and Canada are multinational organizations, not state-owned.

The fact that the US gets most of it's oil from Canada means very little. MAYBE we'll get $10/barrel knocked off the global demand price, which would translate into a few cents less at the pump.

[RC]

80. We can not increase ethanol production without also increasing fossil fuel usage.

Talk about your zero sum game, ethanol is a textbook example.

[NoOneMan]

88. Oh yeah, I know

I still think it would cause them to try, and cause the government to subsidize it more.

[RC]

93. For starters, we need to stop using corn.

Sugar beets and sugar cane would be more efficient. I knwo for a fact they waste thousands of tons of sugar beets ever year because they grow more than American Crystal can process.

[LibAsHell]

4. We could simply rely on America's excellent public transportation infrastructure

Oh, wait.

[abelenkpe]

28. :)

[Aerows]

36. "Excellent Public Transportation Infrastructure"

You know how to walk, don't you?

[loyalsister]

90. People might give a shit about it

And finally take an interest in making it work.

[defacto7]

103. That's what I say!

n/t

[WovenGems]

5. Will Happen

society will adjust to a loss of petrol. Urban centers will grow, mass transit and trains will rule. The world population will fall by two thirds as food shipping suffers.

[NoOneMan]

16. Society will not simply adjust

Our economy runs on cheap energy (which is a big part of why modern economies are not doing so hot anymore). The more expensive energy becomes, the less production we can demand from yesterday's surplus (to the point further production may yield no surplus, and thereby, become pointless). If we no longer have the energy or incentive for further production, what will fuel our transition to alternatives?

Civilization has a major, long term challenge switching away from petrol. Doing it cold-turkey without cheap energy will be a massive shock. OTOH, it might just be what the environment needs in the short term.

[HeroInAHalfShell]

6. everyone would get a horse and buggy. n/t

[Aerows]

37. Or a bicycle and buggy n/t

[HeroInAHalfShell]

39. good call!

[Art_from_Ark]

89. Or a bicycle built for two

Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer, do
I'm half crazy, all for the love of you
It won't be a stylish marriage
I can't afford a carriage
But you'll look sweet
Upon the seat
Of a bicycle built for two

[FarCenter]

41. In horse and buggy days, very few city folk had horses

Hence the term "carriage trade" for catering to upscale shoppers.

[L0oniX]

81. You have no idea of what it costs to maintain a horse do ya.

[djean111]

8. I think a lot of people will not be able to afford to drive. Like me.

I am on Social Security, and I don't believe gas prices are part of the fucking list of things that seniors use.
People may either not buy much gas at all, or use money meant for other things to buy gas, which will not be good for the economy.
Wishful pony unicorn thinking - if gas gets that expensive, then maybe Washington will get serious about public transportation and electric car subsidies.
(Bwahahahahaha!)

But I am guessing that if increased prices bring profits down because people won't drive as much, Washington will make up the lost profits to the oil companies with taxpayer money.

[piratefish08]

10. drill baby, drill!

oh.

wait.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. It's about $9.10 in Norway, currently

http://www.theaa.com/resources/Documents/pdf/motoring-advice/fuel-reports/june2013.pdf

£1.6173 per litre; 3.78 litres per US gallon; $1.49 per £1.

[djean111]

17. Yes, but the taxes they pay go to social services like health care.

And what is Norway's job and salary situation?
Apples and oranges, I think.

[pampango]

69. And Norway is a major oil exporting country. Impressive that Norwegians handle their oil wealth

so wisely rather than taking advantage of cheap oil to maximize consumption now.

[MrSlayer]

12. Prices for trucked goods would go up.

And cabs and buses and the like.

One thing you can count on is conservatives bitching about it. They love free market capitalism until it hurts them. Then it's a liberal plot. They're such idiots.

[Recursion]

13. Europe and Canada do fine with gas that expensive

Though it's part of why their standard of living is slightly lower than ours.

[djean111]

19. Europe and Canada have higher taxes that pay for social programs like health care.

[Recursion]

21. Yes, very regressive VATs and low income taxes

I don't particularly like the EU revenue model

[djean111]

23. I don't like it either, but the way it is set up, comparing gas prices is not valid.

[NoOneMan]

24. 1) Canadian gas isn't that expensive, 2) What makes you think their standard of living is lower?

Canadians have much more expensive homes w/ ~75% home ownership, are generally healthier and live longer, have lower crime, universal health care, paid maternity leave, constant town festivals/celebrations, widespread public recreation facilities everywhere (pools/gyms/hockey), as many parks as American's have McDonalds, higher intergenerational mobility, etc.

I've lived all over the states and can compare with Canada. There are many factors, especially lifestyle factors, which lead me to rate Canada as much much high in terms of standard of living. That could surely and likely change in 2-5 years.

[Recursion]

25. People compute these things

I have no idea what the components are.

[NoOneMan]

27. GDP, purchasing power, and statistical crap that doesn't equate to tangible "living"

But really, for us humans it should come down to where you would be happier/successful/secure/healthier at. Hands down, for me, that's Canada by every relevant measure as of today (other than housing affordability).

Higher education ratings, higher health ratings, higher human development index ratings, higher mobility, etc. I could give a fuck about GDP in all honesty. Its a dick measuring contest that consistently doesn't manifest in gross national happiness

[Aerows]

38. Lower than ours?

You mean like not going bankrupt because you develop a health problem?

[RC]

83. +1000

Been there. Dated a Canadian for 2 some years. Our health care system was a deal breaker. She could not believe we would put with it.
I wonder why also.

[Posteritatis]

86. I'm pretty sure gas prices aren't even half that anywhere in Canada

Nova Scotia's got fairly high gas prices and we're paying $4.64US/gal at the moment.

[Recursion]

91. I think I'm remembering when the canadian $ was weaker than it is

But it was about US$ 10 per gallon (US$ 2.50 per liter or so) when I was there in the late 90s.

[Lurks Often]

14. Enormous damage to the economy

aside from the direct impact on most people, you will also see an indirect impact as the prices on EVERYTHING goes up to compensate for the dramatic increase in shipping costs. You will also a probably devastating impact on restaurants, stores, the travel industry and the hotel industries.

I won't speak to the rest of the country, but here in the Northeast, virtually everything we buy is shipped by truck.

You will also see an increase in delinquency on bills as people will be forced to decide between eating and putting gas in the car to go to work or paying the phone or credit card companies.

[FarCenter]

42. There are not freight train tunnels or bridges across the Hudson much below Albany

Most goods shipped to NYC, Long Island, and SE CT go via truck.

The southernmost railroad bridge across the Hudson is at Selkirk, NY, adjacent to the NY Thruway - Berkshire Connector bridge.

[AgingAmerican]

15. It would be a godsend

All the Ram truck driving Republicans that I work with would be in a tailspin. IT would force us to look at alternative energy and start doing something concrete about climate change.

[Marrah_G]

44. It would not be a godsend

The working poor would have to go without even more. Like food, heat, ac, medicine.

The solution to climate change should not include killing off the poor.

[AgingAmerican]

47. Doubling gas prices will not kill off the poor

It would help them. Clean energy will be the next big thing like Computer Science was in the 90s and 2000s. Lots of jobs.

Burning fossil fuel with reckless abandon will kill everyone and everything.

[Marrah_G]

48. It will take quite a while for any of that to trickle down to the working poor

And in the mean time, people still have to get to work. So they will do without medicine, ac, heat, food and other basics of life.

Climate change needs to be addressed before gas prices get that high.

[AgingAmerican]

49. So lets destroy the planet long term

for short term convenience.

The nature of capitalism will not allow climate change to be addressed, unless it is forced to do so. You cannot put the cart before the horse.

Americans are spoiled self centered wimps.

[Marrah_G]

50. Because wanting to eat is so selfish

I'm going to leave this conversation now. There really isn't anything left to say to each other.

[AgingAmerican]

52. The poor wont die if gas prices go up

That is a strawman argument.

[tritsofme]

77. You are not spoiled or a wimp because you want food and shelter for your family.

And I'm not sure you understand what a "strawman argument" is...

If gas goes up to $10/gallon, it would be the equivalent of a very regressive tax, and hit the poor hardest. How you think that this would not effect the ability of working families to feed themselves and their children betrays quite a lack of critical thinking skills on your part.

[AgingAmerican]

84. Americans are incapable of seeing the forest

They just react to the tree front of their nose.

I regret to inform you, but within 5-10 years we will be in the throes of a global emergency stranded on a dying planet with billions of lives at stake.

Americans are too mesmerized by the shiny objects, big trucks, and ipads that keep them placated and 'happy.'

[tritsofme]

95. I bet you were a Y2K guy.

The world isn't going to end in 5 years.

[AgingAmerican]

97. So, climate change is the new Y2K?

You sound like my Rush-head co-worker.

[tritsofme]

98. You don't dispute it...

But yes, "the world is ending in 5 years" sort of apocalyptic rhetoric is just like the Y2K nonsense, for sure.

Climate change is a serious issue, but we are not five years removed from worldwide emergency conditions.

[AgingAmerican]

99. "the world is ending in 5 years"

You are quoting yourself. Wow, you are desperate, lol.

You don't read a lot of scientific data, do you?

So climate change = "Y2K nonsense"

[tritsofme]

100. "in the throes of a global emergency stranded..."

Within 5 years...right. You are trying to get away from that nonsense apparently.

As I repeat, climate change is a serious problem. We are not five years from global emergency.

[AgingAmerican]

102. "within 5-10 years we will be in the throes of a global emergency"

Your attempts at twisting my quote is duly noted, and soundly rejected. There is a name for the fallacy you are using, but I wont bother bonking your over the head with it.

[Motown_Johnny]

67. Tell that to people who heat their homes with oil.

Some poor people could lose their lives if gasoline went to ten bucks a gallon. Heating oil would increase in price a similar amount and some people would simply not be able to heat their homes.

[AgingAmerican]

68. Tell that to the masses that will abandon large swaths of the earth

and become refugees, because lack of rain and extreme temperatures render them uninhabitable.

[Motown_Johnny]

71. That doesn't mean people won't freeze to death if

the price of oil ~triples in the next twelve months.

[AgingAmerican]

85. But if we burn the fuel....

...we cook to death sooner.

We are shitting where our children and grandchildren will have to eat and sleep.

[Motown_Johnny]

87. I won't argue that, it is unquestionably true,

but tripling the cost in a year is a disaster here and now. People would die if it happened (which it won't).

[flvegan]

75. Yeah, fuck everyone so long as you get to feel good about idiot Repubs being upset.

Thank the gods your priorities are in good working order.

I'm happy no Obama voters drive something like that, or own businesses that require a fleet of them. Yeah, fuck them too.

[JaneyVee]

18. Lower carbon emissions.

[Fumesucker]

20. My electric bike will have turned out to be an excellent investment

I already have over 2000 miles on it, costs me about ten cents to go thirty miles.

[PoliticAverse]

53. Which make/model do you have ? n/t

[Fumesucker]

61. It's a bit of a do it yourself setup

I have a different and much smaller but more powerful battery now since I put this post up.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11282343

[PoliticAverse]

64. Nice, thanks. n/t

[Fumesucker]

60. I kind of did it myself, a bit from here, a piece from there

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11282343

[hunter]

22. It would be bad for one of my kids.

He's the only automobile commuter in my extended family.

My wife and I were Los Angeles commuters until the mid 'eighties.

We've somehow managed to avoid commuting ever since. A lot of it is luck.

The death of the automobile culture wouldn't bother me at all so long as everyone has food, health care, and a safe place to call their own.

"Productivity," especially productivity based on fossil fuel consumption, is stupid.

In my personal utopia nobody cares about the price of gasoline. Fossil fuels are best left in the ground.

[arcane1]

26. "If"?

It's inevitable, it's just a question of when.

[FreeJoe]

29. It should be our goal

Not a short term goal because people need time to adjust. It should be a longer term goal to dramatically increase the cost of gasoline via a carbon emission tax. That tax money could be redistributed to offset the tax burden. The key thing is that we need a financial incentive to move from carbon emitting energy solutions to non-carbon emitting energy solutions. As long as people aren't faced with the cost of their actions, they will not consider them in their decisions. The result is that people will talk a lot about alternative energy, but they won't do anything about it.

I had a chat with a neighbor that works on electricity provisioning. He said that they did polls that backed this up. When asked if people want green energy sources, the response was almost unanimous in favor. When asked if they would pay 20% more for them, the response was almost unanimous in opposition. We need to make people pay for emitting carbon or they will never stop doing it.

[Gregorian]

30. Frivolous driving will stop. People will finally start thinking responsibly.

And I'll breathe a sigh of relief.

Edit- And before anyone flames me, I have empathy for those who don't have the cash. We should have been screaming about this from an environmental perspective long before we have a crisis. But that's how everyone operates.

[Marrah_G]

43. You will breathe a sigh of relief

But poor people who need to drive to work won't be jumping for joy. Instead they will go without heat, ac, food, medicine, etc.

You don't get to post something so selfish and lacking in compassion and then say "And before anyone flames me, I have empathy for those who don't have the cash." because you don't. If you did, you wouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief.

[darkangel218]

45. You are wrong.

Look at the bigger picture for once.

[Gregorian]

59. The planet is more important than a few suffering people. Sorry to be so blunt.

[KentuckyWoman]

94. "The planet" can handle anything we give it.

Life is already here and we can't possible kill all of it off. We can and probably will extinct most of the species..... heck we might even manage to extincts ants and cock roaches before we finally extinct ourselves. But eventually the planet WILL recover and some other life form will be on top.

Asking some people to suffer for the long term survival of the human race is really the discussion to be had..... and I've found that generally people will only sacrifice so much for the future generations.......

[Apophis]

72. That requires people to think.

[madrchsod]

31. a depression way beyond the scale of the 1930`s....

and the full implementation of a military state.

[EdwardSmith74]

32. Just give it time. I remember 32 cents a gallon for regular (leaded).

[arely staircase]

33. More likely to hit 2 dollars than 10.

given its recent direction.

[darkangel218]

35. Please whatever god, make the gasoline expensive just like in Europe!

Lets see all the huge pick up truck fundie drivers lose their lil peanut minds!!

STOP POLLUTING OUR PLANET YOU JACKASSES!!!

[egold2604]

40. Big oil will make more profits

Please don't be so negative. The 1% will enjoy record dividends from Big Oil. God loves the very wealthy and wants them to be even more wealthy.

[kestrel91316]

46. It would do the same thing the first run-up to $4 did: crash the economy.

I saw it coming way back in 2006 when gas went up so much and the banks started pulling home equity lines of credit as payments fell behind.

[AgingAmerican]

54. So, $4 gasoline crashed the economy?

lol Hate to inform you, but deregulation and the Bush administration refusing to enforce existing regulations that crashed the economy.

[Pretzel_Warrior]

51. and what if bread starts costing $40 a loaf?

and what if we switch all economic activity to bitcoin?

[HooptieWagon]

57. It would be the Greater Depression.

Food prices would soar...fuel for tracters to farm and for trucks to transport. Many places in country don't have adequate public transport. People won't have money to go out, so resturants and bars will close. Transportation costs of goods will skyrocket, caused people squezzed for money to stop buying. Housing prices in urban areas will soar, prices in suburbs will collapse. Suburbs will become the new slums. It won't be pretty at all.

btw, I'm actually in favor of raising federal gas taxes. It should be done gradually, however. Some money going to subsidize public transport, some going in to alt energy investment, and some going to infrastructure maintainence and replacement. I think a $1/ gal increase, phased in over 5 years or so would be feasable.

[customerserviceguy]

62. For starters

you could kiss the laws against fracking goodbye. The money the oil and gas industry will make will skyrocket, and they'll be able to buy just as many congresscritters (including legislators on the state level) as they need.

I'm set, I just bought a hybrid Sonata about six months ago, figuring that the price of gasoline would climb to $5-6 a gallon if we ever got an economic recovery, or quantitative easing finally caused inflation to rise.

[olddots]

63. here in L.A. the flames would be seen for miles

I don't want to go " there"

[dipsydoodle]

65. Then you'll know what its like in Europe.

'nuff said.

[djean111]

76. Only if we get universal health care, which is one of the things that makes gas higher in Europe.

The higher price is taxes, which are used for social services.
Not a good comparison, apples and oranges.

[Motown_Johnny]

66. In 1 year.. it would be a disaster but it really isn't possible.

Usage drops off when the cost approaches $5.00 a gallon. For it to get anywhere near ten bucks a gallon it would mean another oil embargo was in place, and even then it might not go that high.


The Keystone pipeline would be approved and the tar sands from Canada would be shipped to refineries by every method possible (mostly trains).

People who can afford it would start converting vehicles to natural gas.Many businesses would do the same. It is already about half the price to run a vehicle on natural gas (compared to gasoline) so if gas nearly triples in price then the investment would make much more sense than it does now.


Heating oil would be the biggest problem. People in the North East still use fuel oil to heat their homes and if the price of gasoline tripled then heating oil would also increase by a similar amount.


The rest of the world would be in more trouble than we would be. Europe is already paying much more for gasoline than we are and it would seriously damage their economy if oil/gasoline skyrocketed in price. People in poorer countries would suffer more because they are already struggling and with imports becoming more expensive, due to transportation costs, it could do serious harm. Also their ability to export goods would be seriously damaged.





Oh, and people driving Teslas, Volts and Leafs would be able to tell everyone "Told ya so!"

[PD Turk]

70. I guess I'd be riding my motorcycle a lot more

And I might get a smaller bike like a 250cc for in town trips and just ride the bigger bike over longer distances.

[Cleita]

73. If gasoline were truly sold on the free market instead of speculated on the

commodities market casino, it would be about $2 a gallon average or so I read somewhere. Don't ask me for a link it was a month or so ago and I don't remember.

[muntrv]

78. Lady Blah Blah will scream "DRILL BABY DRILL" and the Clear Channel stations

will play it 24/7, thus making it the no 1 song in the USA. Meanwhile we'll drill domestically but the price still will not drop.

[burnodo]

79. People making less than 90K a year would learn about alternative transportation

It might even be a good thing. Either most Americans would try to depend less and less on their cars, or there'd be a revolution.

[demwing]

82. Bicycle sales will skyrocket

bike repair shops will flourish, and the price of EVERYTHING will explode.

[rrneck]

92. Think "Mad Max". ntt

[NM_Birder]

96. $10.00 gas would be OK, if they would just CANCEL Honey Boo Boo !

[Demo_Chris]

101. Simple answer: economic devistation that would make the great depression look pleasant

The entire economy would hit a brick wall and explode. Millions dying through mass starvation is entirely possible.

[roamer65]

104. Fuel efficient vehicles would sell like hotcakes.

People would pretty much demand a vehicle would get 30+ mpg.

[ileus]

105. It would cost me 20 bucks a day instead of 7...