I still have no idea what happened with Morales's plane, and I suspect you don't either

[Recursion]

I will describe the two main theories I've seen as "penguin" and "woodchuck", for reasons most longer-term DUers will understand.

The Penguin theory is that, presumably pressured into it by the US, several European countries conspired to deny Morales's plane the right to overfly their territory, and forced him to land in Vienna, at which point they demanded to search his plane. This theory explains France's apology for having denied overflight. This theory runs into problems explaining the Bolivian pilot's report of a mechanical problem and request for clearance to land in Vienna.

The Woodchuck theory is that, after having mechanical problems, Morales's plane landed in Vienna, at which point Austria (not exactly a US puppet regime) asked to search the plane and Morales refused. This theory explains the Bolivian pilot's request, and the French and Spanish denials, but runs into problem with the French apology.

Like everyone, I have confirmation bias; it has been my experience that, in general, woodchuck theories tend to bear out under the weight of long-term evidence better than penguin theories. But not always, and this might be a case of that. The fact remains that currently, the reporting out in the public record contains elements that don't entirely fit with anybody's narrative. Some may be retracted eventually (on page B-24, having been run on page A-1, as always), but as it is I don't feel any confidence in saying what did or didn't happen other than very basic facts like "Morales' plane landed" and "Morales refused Austria's request to search his plane."

[MineralMan]

1. As with most things, exactly what happened will eventually

be clear. However, most people won't be interested in that when it happens. There will be new incidents to argue over, I'm sure, and a detailed, accurate announcement of the course of events with that flight will be buried and ignored by most.

[WinkyDink]

3. Boy, do I take issue with your initial statement! What major events have really had "exactly what

happened" become clear?!

As opposed to an unwavering Official Story, that is.

[MineralMan]

4. Most of them, actually.

Of course, theories to the contrary always develop, too. That's why we have a Creative Speculation area on DU.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

6. Where a lot of the 'wood chuck' posts belong -> Creative Speculation

They are full of interesting, and inventive ways, to explain away, any all wrong-doing by the totalitarians, in real-time, as if they had their own invite to the table, instead of the cheap seats.

[msanthrope]

10. Yeah...but CS is pure penguin land. Telling, no? nt

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

12. What's telling is the take the Woodchuck have on the Evo Morales farce, even after France Appology

It is simular to the head-in-the-sand position taken on the NSA spying/hacking story, no matter how much evidence is presented, or how many times your wild conspiracy theories are shown to be wrong the Woodchucks carry on preening and flaunting their ignorance for all to see.

Bolivia complains to UN after Evo Morales' plane 'kidnapped'
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/03/bolivia-un-evo-morales-plane

[Recursion]

17. Woodchucks can't explain the apology. Penguins can't explain the denial or the pilot's request.

For that matter, the apology and denial together are difficult for anybody to rationalize; basically you'll have to say one was bogus (sample woodchuck: France didn't deny airspace, but felt pressured to apologize because of the mess. Sample penguin: France did deny airspace, and issued a bogus denial that that ever happened.) Similarly, one might suggest the Bolivian pilot's audio was faked, or was staged so Morales could save face.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

20. What denial? And there is nothing to explain about some out of context audio clip

You are talking in recursion circles again, the classic tactics of a sophist.

Bolivia’s Morales Slams EU Countries For Bowing To ‘US Imperialism’
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023166751

I'll take the word of the head of state who was there, over some anonymous poster on the www with a history of recursion.

[Recursion]

29. "France denies blocking Bolivian plane amid rumours NSA leaker Snowden was aboard"

http://www.english.rfi.fr/americas/20130703-france-denies-purposely-delaying-morales-flight

http://news.yahoo.com/snowden-case-france-denies-blocking-bolivia-plane-090257428.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/france-denies-blocking-bolivian-plane-amid-rumours-nsa-leaker-snowden-was-aboard/article12944918/

A quick news search will yield similar articles about Spain and Portugal

[msanthrope]

40. I think the French apologized, and were right to do so--the plane was having technical difficulties,

as evidenced by the audio recording. That may have not been clear to French. They may have misinterpreted the situation--not understanding that the plane had technical difficulties as opposed to some half-cocked asylum run.

It's possible there's a great deal of misunderstanding on both sides. Which is why one uses time and perspective to more accurately judge things.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

42. That's one of the conspiracy theories floated by anonymous www posters, sure

Though, I am going to go with the first hand account of the head of state who went though this ordeal.

[msanthrope]

46. The head of state who just signed a trade agreement with Iran that he doesn't want to talk about?

If I were Evo, I'd certainly use the US for a bit a saber-rattling, rather than explain to my electorate why I just signed over exploration rights to for gas and oil in my country to Iran.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

48. Is that your conspiracy theory, interesting.. even though Iran is a energy exporter with the largest

reserves of Natural Gas, and the 4th largest of Oil, your going with that?

[msanthrope]

52. Iran can't export all that much due to sanctions and embargo. Thus, the GCEF meetings this week

with Egypt, Russia, Libya, Algeria, Venezuela, etc, and the signing of the Moscow Declaration.

Why do you think he was in Russia in the first place?

This is about the gas cartel that Bolivia participates in. Money--and Evo doesn't want to have to answer why he signed on with the Egyptian military, or why he agreed to allow Iran into Bolivia. Heck, I wouldn't want to, either.

Always follow the money. This is why these assholes want sanctions lifted against Iran--money.

[WinkyDink]

61. So everything from TPTB is considered orthodoxy, then? Good to know.

[graham4anything]

28. +1.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

2. I think we have a pretty good idea what happened (LINKS)

though the why may still be murkey, I think that those who are paying attention have a pretty good understanding as to what is really going on behing the scenes...

France issues weasel apology to Bolivia
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023162127

How much damage to the totalitarians would a successful whistleblower asylum be?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023165190

[Recursion]

18. So what was the pilot's request to land because of mechanical problems about?

Like I said, neither narrative fits all the reporting we have well.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

22. Ill go with the word of the head of state who was there, vs distractins

from those with a history of dissembling on this issue.

[Recursion]

24. France has both apologized for it and said they didn't do it

So either way, we'll have to discount something France said.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

25. Like I said above, vs an anonymous poster with a history of dissembling

Has U.S. Commited "ACT of WAR" against our Alies by Hacking into their systems to SPY? Pentagon: YES
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023145871

[Recursion]

27. "France denies blocking Bolivian plane amid rumours NSA leaker Snowden was aboard"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/france-denies-blocking-bolivian-plane-amid-rumours-nsa-leaker-snowden-was-aboard/article12944918/

http://www.english.rfi.fr/americas/20130703-france-denies-purposely-delaying-morales-flight



"Anonymous poster with a history of dissembling"

Also, I thought you didn't trust politicians? Morales is one.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

30. Snowden case: France apologises in Bolivia plane row

France has apologised to Bolivia for refusing to allow President Evo Morales' jet into its airspace, blaming "conflicting information".
Bolivia accused France, Italy, Spain and Portugal of blocking the plane.

It said some wrongly believed US fugitive Edward Snowden was on board.

Speaking in Berlin, French President Francois Hollande said he granted permission as soon as he knew it was Mr Morales' plane.

President Morales was flying back to Bolivia from Moscow when the plane was forced to stop in Vienna.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23174874

Anonymous poster with a history of dissembling, yep... that'd be you and your ilk, how hang onto this 'side-of-story' like a reTHUGlican making his case for why he is right to help the corporation over the people, invade women's privacy for legitimate reasons, and on, and on...

yep, just like those scoundrels.

[Recursion]

33. I've acknowledged they've both apologized and said they didn't do what they're apologizing for

Why do you accept one and not the other?

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

50. but you never acknowledged that the denial was first from an anonymous source

and go on pretending like this was simply about some mechanical trouble, and that those who were onboard the plane didn't know they were having mechanical problems.

now that is some conspiracy theory right there.

but i know, we shouldn't judge until all the facts are in...

[sibelian]

5. Thanks.

It's been extremely useful to watch these threads come out.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

7. Well, I KNOW,

but I'm not saying.

Actually, I suspect a number of countries and their leadership feel snookered by our president, and feel skittish, as though they put their chips on the wrong number in the roulette of life. He is not the liberal people thought him to be, and his compromises reek of poor negotiating approaches. I also wonder if they were hoping that the US economy would pull theirs out of their own troubles, but given the anemic approach we've taken, plus our own silly and short sighted austerity, has made that impossible. The again, I suspect that they don't realize how obstructive today's GOP has become, either.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. Penguins-Woodchucks . . . . Sharks-Jets . . . . Bloods-Crypts . . . . Corleones-Tataglias . . . .

Hatfields-McCoys . . . . Montagues-Capulets . . . . Sunis-Shias . . . .

Lots of zip guns, knuckles, chains, and pipes in evidence around here these days.

DU has been highly entertaining. Craft a good post that both sides can see as their own, make it cryptic enough, and then sit back and laugh.

Studious ignorance feigned strategerally.

[byeya]

9. Check the reports of the emergency meetings in South America. It's what they believe that's

important.

[Jerry442]

11. Yup. In the long run, the narrative believed by the most people is the one that will drive events.

In world opinion, the Penguins have a huge lead over the Woodchucks.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

16. Latin America rising: Outrage at ‘imperial hijack’ of Morales’ plane

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014527208#post3

Yeah, I think it is hard to argue with that!

[Recursion]

21. That's an important point

I'll be watching USAN with a lot of interest.

[msanthrope]

44. Having a saber-rattling meeting to cover up the fact that you've just signed a trade deal with Iran

that puts Bolivia at a disadvantage is in Evo's best interest. That's what's really important....

[Whisp]

13. so it was mechanical and not gas problems?

I can see if Morales plane was circling for 3 hours that they would have to replace the gas.

But if it was mechanical, that's a whole different looking woodchuck!

[Recursion]

15. Using "mechanical" in the broadest sense, ie, "something was wrong with the plane" (nt)

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

51. yeah, sure... and those actually on the plane are unaware of that, but YOU armchair detectives are

sounds pretty lame to me

[Recursion]

53. The pilot was on the plane

Are you literally just unaware of the recording of the pilot telling Vienna he had mechanical problems and needed clearance to land?

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

56. right, and he forgot to inform his passengers of the reasons for their unscheduled landing, sure

or was it that he was too embarrassed to report it, and made up a story to tell his passengers about being denied permission to fly over certain EU countries?

and that caused all the confusion, right?

but we have clarity here on DU being removed from the actual events on the ground and in the air?

sorry, still not buying it, too much conspiracy theory for me.

[cthulu2016]

14. C'mon man... "woodchuck theories tend to bear out"

Penguin or aardvark or sea urchin theories are often bogus, as is the nature of excitable theories in general and on the internet even moreso.

No doubt.

But the failure rate of penguin theories does not in any way advance the reliability of woodchuck theories.

The woodchuck view is a rationalized and/or propagandistic view with little (being charitable there) interest in the truth. Woodchuck theories are some of the most irrational and often willfully dishonest flights of bullshit the world has ever known.

Your framing is like a Muslim demolishing certain false beliefs of Christians and claiming that these demolitions advance the claims of Islam.

Or someone in 1969 noting that an unwashed Vietnam War protester had many erroneous beliefs about the war as somehow being evidence of the reliability of Pentagon claims.

[Bradical79]

19. What relevant facts are unknown?

1. We have confirmation from the President of France that the Bolivian plane was denied entry into their airspace via his apologizing for those actions.
2. We know he ended up having to land in Austria where his plane was searched despite Morales refusing.

Whether he took a left or a right on the way there and any other details don't seem all that relevant to the core problem of how Bolivia's head of state was treated.

[Recursion]

23. We also have France saying they didn't deny him

Which one is it? Why believe one is a lie as opposed to the other? Confirmation bias.

Also, nobody who blames France (and the US) has yet explained why the Bolivian pilot asked for clearance to land in Vienna after a mechanical problem if in fact they were being "forced down".

[Mojorabbit]

58. I believe there is a time frame

First there was an anonymous denial and THEN the next day an official apology.
Peace, Mojo

[Buzz Clik]

26. +1. This is consistent with your demand for knowledge, Recursion.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

32. This is consistent with a reTHUGligan demanding equal time

sure

[Buzz Clik]

34. Bull. Shit.

Did you not bother to read the OP?

He is requesting -- demanding -- that we wait for more facts before going into a typical DU frenzy.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

35. NYT: Barring of Bolivian Plane Infuriates Latin America as Snowden Case Widens

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/snowden.html?_r=1&

He is trying to muddy the waters, as if this didn't occur, or that is was simply due to engine trouble, or some shit, when we have countries on the recorded admitting they denied access, and we have the first hand account of the freaking head of state.

Yeah, your right, there is a whole lot of BULLSHIT going on with this story, and as usual, it is from the 'woodchucks' themselves.

[Buzz Clik]

36. Holy crap! All the facts are in, and you have them.

I'll be moving on.

[usGovOwesUs3Trillion]

37. Yeah, we would hate to pre-judge before all the facts are in, eh?

[TheKentuckian]

59. It seems the folks that are always calling for more "facts" are also the same ones defending secrecy

by those with the greatest access to them and put the burden of proof on those constrained from the truth.

Those same people also tend to accept the word of those keeping and profiting in power and wealth as fact. Just the right people asserting something makes it conclusive.

I tend to think that it is punting, just push the subject past the immediate, let emotions cool, dampen the pressure to actually produce facts, and let it all go down the memory hole d as new situations come up to be defused in their turn. Just one of many wrinkles in a political and societal campaign to ever run out the clock in favor of whatever those with the money and power elect to do with minimal blowback.

So, yeah let's get the facts out but no reason to wait and you start with compelling those with the access and control of the facts to make them available.

[Buzz Clik]

60. ..

It seems the folks that are always calling for more "facts" are also the same ones defending secrecy by those with the greatest access to them and put the burden of proof on those constrained from the truth.

I think it's a safe call that Recursion does not fit into that description.

It's a call for patience before launching off into tirades with hair on fire and exploding heads.

So, yeah let's get the facts out but no reason to wait and you start with compelling those with the access and control of the facts to make them available.

I agree. Let's push for the facts and reserve judgment until we have them.

[TheKentuckian]

74. Nope, the unwillingness of those with the facts to disseminate them and

their drive for secrecy is too vexing to write off and is not an inspiring set of data.

The only real push is to cover up or punt if you can't. If certain folks had their druthers, there would be no facts known and an illusion would be set up as the truth and the greatest anger actually seems to be about disrupting that flow.

I'm not speaking specifically about any one person but general direction of the multitude calling for "all the facts", there is no push for facts from those that have them, they are being vigorously defended and the little guy is presented with the burden of proof.

[HipChick]

31. But DU'ers were claiming to know for sure that President Obama himself had strong armed them

and he was even threatened..right here on DU

[Aerows]

54. Oh wait

was that the post where out of the blue people asked if they were threatening the President because it was suggested that the President make certain of diplomatic relations before flying over Bolivia? Because last I checked, that isn't a threat, and no one on DU has control over Bolivian airspace. But, of course, that doesn't prevent people from telling tall tales, like you are doing.

It's pretty disgusting if you have to go that low. Poor, martyr Obama. Good grief.

[sibelian]

55. Threatened? Dearie me.

Where?

[kentuck]

38. I have an idea.

It may not be correct but it is a theory.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023162444

[HappyMe]

39. Waiting for more actual facts is the way to go.

[WinkyDink]

62. How will you distinguish them from lies?

[Spider Jerusalem]

41. This is yet more nonsense

the French president has formally apologised. The French government has issued a statement which says, in effect, that they denied clearance for the flight to traverse French airspace "because of some confusion as to who was on board". The apology from the French president said "as soon as *I* was aware it was the president of Bolivia's plane, *I* gave clearance". This indicates that whatever was happening was happening at a very high level; ordinarily, the denial of airspace wouldn't be an issue that would personally require the attention of a president. There is enough there in the apology issued by the French government to draw a very reasonable inference that a) Morales' plane was denied entry into French airspace because they thought someone else was on the plane. That someone else seems to be Edward Snowden (again, a very reasonable inference). This was important enough to be communicated to the President, rather than handled at a lower level by ATC/Armee de l'Air (we know this from the wording of Hollande's apology).

[kentuck]

43. The French, more than anyone else in the world...

...do not want to be seen as puppets of any American Administration. It has been independent in that manner since we have been a very young country. The French President does not wish to be ridiculed by the French people.

[Spider Jerusalem]

49. France is a member of NATO. As are Spain and Italy and Portugal.

"being seen as an American puppet" doesn't really enter into it. And there's really no other explanation for the apology, which, although carefully worded, betrays certain facts nonetheless ("we thought Snowden was on the plane"; "this was important enough that the president of France made the call&quot .

[Recursion]

73. Austria's not

For that matter, Austria usually makes a point of telling us to fuck off when we ask for things.

[temmer]

57. good points

so the chain of decisions, communications etc. rapidly unfolded after Morales' plane was airborne, and it involved high levels of decision in various countries.

This doesn't shed a good light on Obama who promised he would not scramble jets for Snowden. Most probably he was involved, too.

[winter is coming]

45. "This theory runs into problems explaining the Bolivian pilot's report of a mechanical problem"

If I were on an airplane that had been inexplicably denied air clearance, I might discover a "mechanical problem" just so someone would let me land.

[Recursion]

47. Except they specifically didn't request emergency clearance

And they clearly had authorization to fly over Austria because they were, well, over Austria.

That said, on the Penguin side, if I were a head of state and was being forced to land, I might make up a mechanical problem to save face.

[sibelian]

63. .

Daily "DiePresse" reported that the USA demanded Snowden's extradiction from Austrian authorities

US Requested that Vienna Extradite Snowden

03.07.2013 | 21:28 | HELMAR DUMBS UND CHRISTIAN ULTSCH (Die Presse)

Bolivian President Morales was forced to land in Vienna. NSA whistleblower Snowden was suspected to be on his jet. In a telephone conversation with the Foreign Office, the U.S. ambassador demanded they extradite him.

...

Here's the crucial section:

Sie landete gegen 23 Uhr. Kurz danach ging im Wiener Außenamt ein dringlicher Anruf ein. Am anderen Ende der Leitung: US-Botschafter William Eacho. Wie "Die Presse" erfuhr, behauptete er mit großer Bestimmtheit, dass Edward Snowden an Bord sei, der von den USA gesuchte Aufdecker jüngster Abhörskandale. Eacho habe auf eine diplomatische Note verwiesen, in der die USA die Auslieferung Snowdens verlangten.

Translated:

It landed about 11 pm. Shortly after that, the Vienna foreign department received a phone call. The caller was the US embassador William Echo. "Die Presse" learned that he claimed with strong firmness that Edward Snowden was onboard, the whistleblower of the recent surveillance scandals. Eacho referred to a diplomatic note requesting Snowden's extradition.


http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/1426275/USA-verlangten-von-Wien-Snowdens-Auslieferung?_vl_backlink=/home/politik/aussenpolitik/1416110/index.do&direct=1416110

[Recursion]

64. Die Presse is a right-wing daily, but it's generally not crazy

I'll take a look at that.

[Cleita]

65. Actually, Morales himself held a presser after arriving in Bolivia.

Our Catherina has posted on what he said from Spanish language sources that are translated into English on this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023168391

[Recursion]

66. And we have multiple countries saying different things. Portugal says they're lying

So does Spain.

[Cleita]

67. I suspect they are trying to whitewash what they did by now denying it all.

This account is from the horse's mouth, the person who endured this ordeal, so I'm going to give Morales the benefit of the doubt that he is telling the truth.

[Recursion]

68. OK, so you believe a particular politician. I get that.

Lots of people do that; I try to recognize when I do that too.

[Cleita]

69. He's the President of a sovereign nation, not just a politician.

Our nation has been doing all it can to disrespect him since he took office because he doesn't cow tow to American interests. Would you believe Obama if a similar incident had happened to him?

[Recursion]

70. If Portugal and Spain categorically denied his claim?

I'd probably think about it.

[Cleita]

71. They are in PR mode. They screwed up. Now they have to make it go away by

the oldest PR trick in history, just deny it ever happened.

"Who? Us, over here? Not us" said the guilty party.

[Savannahmann]

72. The "Mechanical Problem"

When you contact an airport you are not cleared to land at, and request permission to land, in other wise, diversion from your filed flight plan, you have to give a reason. You can't just say. "OK there Washington National Approach, I'd like to land right about there give or take."

They would ask why you want to land. You have to give a reason, and insufficient fuel would be the reason if instead of flying direct to Portugal, you're now being told you have to fly past Portugal, and land at the Canary Islands, presuming that the Canary Islands continue to welcome you, as many other nations are suddenly not doing. Ala the French Apology.

The plane they were fliying has a maximum range of 4,500 miles, and that depends on a full fuel load. Pilots don't fly with full fuel loads if they are not flying the maximum range. They put enough fuel on board to get where they are going, with an hour flying time above and beyond that. They can't take off without clearances, and the woodchuck theory would have you believe that all it takes to fly internationally is a plane, any plane, and the desire to fly that a way until you run low on gas, and then you just land and pull into the nearest Exxon and fill her up.

Talk to a Pilot, any pilot, about how even starting your engines on a controlled airport, one with air traffic control, is forbidden. You crank up the motor, and you'll be told to shut down and a complaint will be filed with the International Civil Air Organization. You could lose your license doing even one of the things the Woodchuck theory would demand. You could even get your ass shot down.