Is SCOTUS going to drop a stink bomb on H8 & DOMA and flee town?

[NightWatcher]

Or could they punt them back to a lower court, or as I guess say that the petitioners in the Prop 8 case have no standing and therefore refuse to rule on constitutionality?

Are they going to deny equal rights for some and then flee the building in unmarked cars tomorrow or Thursday?

Why the procrastination?

[Pab Sungenis]

1. Prediction:

They reject the H8 case for lack of standing, let California's SC decision stand.

They vote to uphold DOMA 6-3: Roberts, Kennedy, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, Kagan. I wouldn't have included Kennedy but SCOTUSBlog predicts he's writing the opinion so he's going to vote to uphold with the rest.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

2. i dont think Kagan will uphold

[dsc]

3. a ruling on standing would actually make the original federal decision stand

not the cali supreme court. I also don't think Kennedy will uphold DOMA under any circumstances nor do I think Kagan would either.

[longship]

5. What is current status on Prop 8?

I remember that CA supremes struck it down but cannot remember if that was upheld or reversed on appeal.

Thanks.

[dsc]

6. ca scotus upheld prop 8

the federal district court struck it down with a very broad decision, which was narrowed considerably by the appellate court. The district court held that the law didn't even survive a rational basis test and was unconstitutional. The appellate court held that since california had domestic partnerships with all the rights the withholding of the word marriage was unconstitutional.

[morningfog]

4. Agree on Prop 8 and punting on standing. Disagree on DOMA. Kennedy will write it, strike it down.

The question whether they use heightened or strict scrutiny. It will fail either test, even a rational basis. DOMA ends tomorrow.

[morningfog]

7. It was argued later. They release opinions much in the order they hear them.

The vote was taken and the opinion has been drafted. They are putting together final edits and want to release the two at the same time.

I think they will decline to rule on Prop 8 for standing to challenge. That will leave marriage equality in California. And there is a legitimate issue with standing in that case. Since Roberts is likely the writer for the Prop 8 case, and since he focused most of his questions on standing, I think it will be decided on that alone.

The DOMA case will be written by Kennedy. I expect an opinion very similar to his opinion in Romer v. Evans. He will find it unconstitutional on probably a heightened scrutiny. He won't likely go far enough to say sexual orientation is a suspect classification, but under any analysis there is no legitimate state interest. The oral arguments removed any doubt that there is a legitimate interest in DOMA.

It will be a good day tomorrow. Unlike today.