Does Michigan present any opportunities for Santorum?

[RandySF]

for years, I used to say that it would be the election year a right winger wins the Michigan primary. I said in 1992 that David Duke or Pat Buchanan might be George HW Bush. In 1996, I though Bob Dole might be upended. But it never happened. Bush, Dole and McCain and Romney have all won. So this year, I will play it safe and say that Mittens wins it again. However, I still believe there are regions that present opportunities for Rick Santorum to pick up delegates.

The Downriver Detroit area, south of Dearborn to Monroe, is full of conservative Catholics and working/middle class evangelicals. Warren is still heavily Catholic. Suburban Flint is full of religious right Republicans as are pocket of the Northern Lower Peninsula. Western Michigan might be attractive, but they tend to vote with the establishment and Ron Paul might crimp his style in the Howell area. So what do you think?

[MichiganVote]

1. The money boys are more organized & powerful in Mi than the evangelical interests

[Bozita]

18. Wonderin' where Dick and Betsy DeVos (Amway) are gonna do their money dump

Bigtime fundies with bigtime funds!

[MichiganVote]

19. Business is their God. Romney is their apostle. And not vice/versa.

[sarcasmo]

21. Nailed it

[Siwsan]

2. In the primary, probably

Old Willard Romney might as well stay home. His Daddy's name probably won't hold much weight for him.

In the general, I doubt Santorum would have a shot. He's pretty stupid. The west side of the state is pretty conservative but the big population centers lean more Democratic.

[PassingFair]

3. Mittens will have a hard time explaining why he felt it was OK for the auto companies...

to go bankrupt and stiff the workers.

So, yes, I think Santurdom might stand a chance here.

Also, If Newty is still in the race, he might pull out ahead.

[Yooperman]

4. I don't think so...

I lived in the Grand Rapids area for 13 years... and lower west Michigan is very Republican... but I think they will back Romney since his Dad was Governor way back when. But the name still is recognized and at least the older Republicans will most likely vote for Mittens..

I can't speak for the east side of the state... and the U.P. just doesn't have the population to make a difference although it has generally been a solid Democratic area, I think the Republicans up here will most likely support a more moderate candidate.

I think Mitt will carry the Mittens as far as Michigan goes.

YM

[DCBob]

5. This is a biggie... a bit like Florida. Whoever wins this one will have major momentum.

Santorum has a chance. His message resonates with the conservative, rust belt, blue-collar religious types in Michigan.

[RandySF]

7. I think MI is all downside and no up for Willard.

It's supposed to be a given that he will win here. But how much does he have to win by in order to claim momentum? And what if Santorum gives him heartburn in the parts of the state where his voters live? Buchanan actually WON my neck of the woods in 1996. And, IIRC, it's still an open primary, and I know Democrats who voted for McCain in 2000 (I was one) and Romney in 2008 to cause mischief.

[DCBob]

9. The upside is that he could stop the bleeding.

He will likely have lost 4 in a row by then. If he can win both MI and AZ then that at least changes the backward momentum.

[customerserviceguy]

10. It depends on the margin of victory

Romney had a fairly healthy one after New Hampshire and Florida. Of course, it was expected in the former, and unexpected in the latter, but I guess Florida is not really quite the Southern state that many people (myself most notably included) had thought it was.

Michigan is indeed where Mitt's father was governor, but nobody under the age of sixty can possibly remember that time. I do see a sizable Catholic vote in MI, and right now, Santorum's done a better job of exploiting the culture war crises to his advantage than Noot has. I have to pick him as no lower than a close second in Michigan.

Also, there are not a lot of folks in Arizona who pulled the lever for Mittens four years ago, they don't have to feel that they need to be consistent, and as we've seen, many voters have resisted this consistency, as Romney has not been able to count on keeping his percentages from four years ago, let alone build on them. Arizona has some Catholics, too, and I can see them being more in tune with Santorum than with Gingrich.

[DCBob]

12. I think in this case a win is a win.. considering he will have probably lost 4 in a row by then.

Many voters dont look at the details. They will just look at the headlines and if those headlines say Romney wins Michigan and Arizona it will give him a boost no doubt.

[customerserviceguy]

13. The news media doesn't see it that way

They're deathly afraid of a Romney coronation, because it would mean a dramatic drop of viewers. A rousing fight draws many more eyeballs.

By playing the, "yeah, he won, but here's what he did four years ago," or "he was expected to win, but by a larger margin," game, they influence future elections, and they know it. All I can say is that Florida and Nevada didn't convince enough GOP'ers in Missouri, Minnesota, or Colorado.

[DCBob]

14. Totally agree. The media wants a horse race.

but the low information voter wont read past the headline.

[customerserviceguy]

15. The low information voter

is kept that way by Faux Snooze, and they want eyeballs more than anyone!

[Octafish]

6. Before Gov. John ''The Sphincter'' Engler, definitely.

This state had outstanding public psychiatric treatment facilities. Now, to save a buck, they are all closed down.

[RandySF]

8. Is it still an open primary?

It was when I lived in MI and I voted for McCain in 2000 to try and stall Bush. I also recall hearing that some Dems crossed over and voted for Mittens in 2008.

[FarCenter]

17. Closed, but you can declare on the day at the polls...

http://republicanmichigander.blogspot.com/2011/08/mi-gop-state-committee-chooses-closed.html

[customerserviceguy]

11. I have a feeling that there is the distinct possibility of a Colorado-style upset

for Santorum in Michigan. Right now, debates are not dominating the airwaves, it's the culture war issues that Sick Rantorum has a collection of dog whistles for.

[DCBob]

16. Its definitely possible and if that happens it could get interesting.

But I suspect Romney will push out a massive media campaign to attack Santorum. Most likely it will work.

[customerserviceguy]

20. At some point

his strategy of attacking the others will backfire. Of course, I don't care for Reagan, but he clearly had some political insights. His Eleventh Commandment had some basis in his understanding of the GOP electorate.

Mitt's still as artificial as an anamatronic robot at the Hall of Presidents at Disneyland. When he turns into Evil Attack Robot, he doesn't gain a lot of sympathy.

[Motown_Johnny]

22. If we get enough (D)s out there to vote for him (open primary)

then maybe


if nothing else we can deny Rmoney a couple delegates

[Bozita]

23. I'm torn between Gingrich and Santorum at this moment.

I'll be a GOPer for the few minutes it takes to vote on primary day later this month.

Will be watching the polling to see which vote would be most effective.

[RandySF]

24. I think Newt is toast.

His sugar daddy cut him off. Also, Santorum is a better fit among right wing Republicans in MI.

[Motown_Johnny]

25. same here but right now it looks like Frothy