Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges

[stockholmer]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/09/path_to_a_brokered_gop_convention_emerges_113063.html

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan.

I've been adamant that such an outcome is extremely unlikely. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/13/a_brokered_gop_convention_dont_bet_on_it_112373.html For a brokered convention to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa.

My assumption -- and the assumption of many -- was that the GOP fight would eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario.

But for the first time, the two way faceoff doesn't seem inevitable, and a viable path to a brokered convention is beginning to emerge. Let’s start with something else I overlooked. The GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned to her sorrow in 2008.

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much more at link above

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A couple previous posts on this subject:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/100250314

http://www.democraticunderground.com/100252448

[russspeakeasy]

1. This is better than "1,000 Ways To Die".

[liberal N proud]

2. And here comes the real nominee...

It will not be Mitt Rmoney
It will not be Newt Grinch
It will not be Rick Frothy Santorum
It will not be Ron Paul

It will be...

[TheWraith]

4. Nah, it'll be one of those.

Trying to nominate someone else would be a catastrophe for them.

[Bandit]

3. I don't think it matters one whit

I know of no Republican that isn't bat shit crazy and America as a whole is coming to realize that FACT....

[stockholmer]

9. The Nation: Walter Jones: The Antiwar Republican From North Carolina (ally of Dennis Kucinich)

http://www.thenation.com/article/160950/walter-jones-antiwar-republican-north-carolina

snip

Jones has allied himself with liberal Democrat Dennis Kucinich on many issues raised by the “war on terror” and Obama’s decision in late March to go to war against the Libyan government without bothering to get Congressional authorization. “We must not let any war continue absent legal authorization by Congress,” Kucinich said. He contends that Obama not only violated the War Powers Act of 1973 but also the Constitution, which empowers Congress, not the president, to declare war and provide for the common defense, in Arti-
cle 1, Section 8. Kucinich has vowed to force a vote in the House “to end US military operations in Libya.” Jones and Kucinich are discussing filing suit in federal court to force a judicial ruling on whether Obama overstepped his constitutional bounds regarding Libya.

Jones is also a point man in an effort in the House to grab back from the president the powers the founding fathers gave Congress to declare war and provide for the common defense. Not since 1941, when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, has Congress exercised its right to declare war. Jones sponsored a bill that would subject a president who lied in giving the reasons for going to war to prosecution by the Justice Department. The measure never left the subcommittee. As for Obama’s bombing of Libya, Jones said, “We’re neutered as a Congress. It’s like we don’t exist.”

snip

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I obviously do not agree with Jones on many issues, but he is a lion against the war machine, and far from 'bat shit crazy'.

[Bandit]

11. I think Ron Paul has been steadfast anti-war as well but that doesn't

mean his other positions are sane.. Yes there are a few Republicans that hold one or two beliefs that I would consider credible but then they make up for it with all their other anti-American concepts...Like breaking the Unions and tax breaks for the very wealthy while increasing taxes on the average folks....

[Kber]

5. Well that'd be fun

and they will end up with an unvetted candidate ala Gov. Palin, so have it it.

If I were an GOP strategist, I'd cut my losses re: the President and possibly even Congress, try to limit the damage in 2012 as to whatever extent I could, and then spend my money and time "rebranding" essentially moderate positions and "real conservative" ones.

For example, take the growing population of people who favor gay rights and rebrand that as "the government shouldn't be in the morality business" and step out of the way of that oncoming train.

I'd insist on some tweak to Health Care Reform, brand it as a "conservative" idea and then tell people I'd kept my "repeal and replace" promise. It's an essentially republican law anyway, so I'd pull out all of the positions of the GOP circa 1996, claim victory and credit, and call it a day.

And then I'd start recruiting and re-educating my "feeder pools" with articulate, reality based, middle of the road conservatives who understand that feeding the fringe monster is not a long term solution for either my party or my country.

It's move to the center or die, boys.

But I'm not a GOP strategist and never will be, so oh well, right?

[Old and In the Way]

8. Who knows? Maybe the Quitter from Wasilla herself!

Lets say the the delegates are split 30%/30%/30%/10%....after 10 ballots, no break in the deadlock. The convention is breaking down into ugly factionalism and general despair. Suddenly and dramatically, Sarah Palin's presence is announced and spotlights zero in on her procession onto the podium stage. There she is...in a USA stringed bikini toting her Bible in one hand and a hunting rifle in the other. She stridently steps up to the mic and says, "I'll take down this Muslim Kenyan for yeah....wink, wink, wink". Place goes nuts. By unanimous consent, Sarah is crowned Queen of the Convention and everyone goes home happy.

Yeah, I know, wishful thinking...but an irreconcilably fractured convention may open the door for someone, anyone who could at least unite the convention, even if it presents unvetted risks in the GE.

On edit - your prescription is a bitter antidote to a decade of kool-aid drinking extremism. Hard to say if the cure won't kill the Party anyways. Personally, I would like nothing better to see 2 centrist Parties when the big picture needs are agreed with and only the amount of $ and methods to achieve the outcomes are where the fights are.

[Kber]

12. Go Sarah (wink wink)!

I kinda hope that if / when the GOP returns to the center, it gives Dems more room to move left and we can shift the whole conversation.

Imagine a political future where the debate is between the center and the left instead of the center and right wing fringe?

[WI_DEM]

6. If so it will be the first brokered convention for either party since, I think, the 50's

I think in 1952 the Dems went to Chicago without a candidate with enough delegates and after Adlai Stevenson gave his welcoming speech he suddenly became the front-runner.

[Chichiri]

7. Maybe we should publish a guide for conservatives.

Hate Romney? Don't think Gingrich or Santorum can beat him? Go for a brokered convention, and bring some fresh blood in! Here's how you vote in your state . . .

I would love to see a brokered convention, simply because I love drama. :-D

[Yavin4]

10. May I Suggest A WWE Steel Cage Match to Decide The Republican Nominee

I say make it a no holds barred match. Chainsaws, sledgehammers, baseball bats. Whatever.

First person out is the Presidential nominee. Second person out is the VP nominee.