Re: PPP polls on SC-1. I think some questions need to be asked.

[brooklynite]

On April 21, PPP reported a 9-point lead for Colbert Busch. Two weeks later the race was tied with momentum on Sanford's side. The final result appears to be Sanford +8. Unless someone can point to a pivotal change in the the campaign, I think PPP needs to evaluate how their first poll could be off by so much.

[hrmjustin]

1. I think that came out when it was reported he entered his wife's property without permission.

Also people just saw his primary victory speech with the woman who he had an affair with. He had very bad press at that time. What I want to know is how he recovered.

[aaaaaa5a]

2. I think the sample size was too small.

Remember this is a house district election. And a small one at that. In the instances of competitive, small house district elections, results are more difficult to tabulate.


This is also an off year election. This means turnout can be difficult to estimate. The last time I looked, only about 19% of registered voters showed up. For Colbert to win, my guess is turnout had to be much higher.



Those are the factors that led to the topsy turvy poll numbers. it should be pointed out that PPP did have the winner correct. And they have reported in recent days that all of the moment was with Sanford. In addition, although Sanford won, I think the race will tighten a bit.

[winstars]

3. Here is the answer: South Carolina nt

[customerserviceguy]

4. Sanford changed tactics

He ran against the Democratic Congress, that cardboard cutout of Nancy Pelosi reminded voters in that district that no matter how much they disliked cheaters (hey, country music is full of that stuff), they wanted to cling to their guns even more. Philanderers are probably a dime a dozen in that district, anyway, may as well vote for someone who is not going to raise your taxes, steal your guns, or take away your bibles.

My take on it, anyway.

[book_worm]

5. +1

It's a GOP district and voters were coming back to their natural inclination. It's not that hard to understand.

[tritsofme]

6. Polls at the congressional district level are notoriously bad.

And difficult to conduct, that has more to do with it than anything.

[premium]

7. Shit happens?

[stevenleser]

8. Most polls showed the same thing on April 21. The race closed and then shifted in the last two weeks

[kelliekat44]

9. During that thime the NRA had its convention and gun legislation was defeated. nt