Syria Comment: Syria is like Iraq and presents a potential quagmire for the US should it intervene
under the assumption that the killing will stop once the Assad regime is destroyed.
Syria is much like Iraq in that minorities (20%) have for 40 years held their foot on the neck of the majority, which is now fighting a war for control of the country. In both countries, the political struggle falls largely along religious and ethnic lines, although, both class and regional differences are also important.
Syria’s revolt started as a peaceful struggle, but took on a sectarian character as the government used violence. Sectarianism has long been a seminal part of politics in Syria. The regime has protected itself by using sectarian strategies and has mobilized and exploited historic Alawite fear of Sunni discrimination and mistreatment.
In Iraq, the Sunni minority of 20% dominated the Shiite majority of 60% through the Baath Party. In Syria, the Shiite minority, supported by other religious minorities, making up 20% of the population have dominated the Sunni Arab majority of 70% through the Baath Party. In both countries the security state was controlled by the religious minority.
Syria’s violence will not end when the state or brutal regime is destroyed. In Iraq, sectarian and ethnic violence exploded, as did general chaos and criminality, following the destruction of Saddam’s brutal state. In Syria, something similar has already begun to happen. The liberated regions are beset by chaos and criminality. Warlordism is taking root. Foreign intervention cannot solve this problem. The Syrian opposition has had over two years to unify, but has not.
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/is-syria-like-iraq/
Later in the article the author says the US can help with food, medicine and other refugee-related aid but that is it. Saddam and Assad both had brutal regimes but that is how a Sunni minority (in Iraq) and a Shiite minority (in Syria) have been able to rule for decades. The pent-up frustrations of the majority will erupt after the dictator is gone no matter how he is removed.
