Sanford v Colbert Busch: what are the odds for South Carolina's first?

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/29/odds-south-carolina-sanford-v-colbert-busch


Stephen Colbert with his sister, Elizabeth Colbert Busch, who currently leads in the polls. Photograph: Richard Ellis/Getty Images


Republican Mark Sanford needs a breakthrough moment in tonight's debate for South Carolina's congressional special election, or else his comeback effort to win on 7 May is likely to fall short against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch.

Sanford hopes to return to public office as a congressman, after resigning his in the wake of an extramarital affair for which he resigned from the governor's mansion and left his wife. After winning the Republican nomination for the special election in South Carolina's first district, Sanford has faced a barrage of bad press suggesting that he can do no good, even including the news that he violated the terms of his divorce with his former wife.

His Democratic opponent, businesswoman Elizabeth Colbert Busch, has her own claim to fame. Her brother, Stephen Colbert, has hosted numerous fundraisers on behalf of his sibling, helping her stay on the air in a district that went for Mitt Romney by over 15pt. She has also received support from a number of outside organizations, like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, has abandoned Sanford. They refuse to air advertisements on his behalf, leaving the airways to his opponents. Sanford himself has little money left, and has been forced to rely on tactics such as a "debate" last week – with a cardboard cutout of Nancy Pelosi. He couldn't afford podiums. Sanford used music stands instead. As a smart analyst told me, "It just feels like he's going down."