DU POLL - Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?

[RKP5637]

... depending on what 2016 ushers in ... an established trend might well be seen. ... so, I added a poll to this article. My take is eventually the shit is going to hit the fan as more people feel financially repressed and underrepresented. Also, eventually, many R's IMO will realize they've been fucked over for profits by their masters. ... that they've been taken for suckers.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-really-experience-violent-upheaval-2020-162332158.html

Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence. Then, 50 years later, the Vietnam War and Civil Rights Movement triggered a third peak in violent political, social and racial conflict. Fifty years after that will be 2020. If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a violent upheaval in the United States in a few years.

It sounds like pseudoscience, but it's a published theory. "My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time," said Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.

Turchin has led the development of a field of study called "cliodynamics," in which scientists attempt to find meaningful patterns in history. The endeavor flies in the face of the traditional study of history, which assumes the countless variables interacting within a society lead to chaotic fluctuations in outcomes like violence and social unrest. Massimo Pigliucci, a philosopher of science at CUNY-Lehman College, said most historians believe that "the factors at play are so many and so variable that there is little reason to expect quasi-regular cycles, or a unified theory to explain them."

But we might not be so lucky this time around. If Turchin's model is right, then the current polarization and inequality in American society will come to a head in 2020. "After the last eight years or so, notice how the discourse in our political class has become fragmented. It's really unprecedented for the last 100 years. So basically by all measures, there are social pressures for instability that are much worse than 50 years ago."

12 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Yes
	2 (17%)
	No
	3 (25%)
	Possibly
	3 (25%)
	Too early to tell
	0 (0%)
	Never
	2 (17%)
	Too much populace control exists in the US
	2 (17%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[truebluegreen]

1. Land of the Free. Hah.

[RKP5637]

2. Yep, all a head game ... n/t

[Bannakaffalatta]

3. I don't think a national revolution is probable,

but local upheavals; unions vs police; racial clashes; fights over water-rights and evictions and hijacked elections - there are plenty of issues to push one outraged group or another over the edge. Crowd-control is certainly very strong and pervasive, but i'm not sure the police in some cities won't turn on their masters.

[RKP5637]

5. Yep, I think what you've said is the likely scenario. n/t

[ProgressiveProfessor]

4. No. The logistics required make a true upheaval untenable in the US

be it from the right or left.

[Earth_First]

6. Possibly, with a side of hoping so...

Now hear me out, I am generally a non-violent individual. I do not wish nor intend harm on anyone under general circumstances.

However, at some point the people need to push back. Hard.

How much longer can we progress towards complete dominance by the 1% ?

I would support and likely join such an effort depending on which end the upheaval were to commence.

Somethings got to give.

[RKP5637]

8. I think at some point, there is a collective turning point wherein even

former enemies become friends realizing they have common frustrations and goals ... and they are all getting screwed by the system that has turned against them.

[cherokeeprogressive]

7. What if the USSC issues a reinterpretation of 2A that outlaws private ownership of firearms

between now and then? What if after that, the federal government outlaws private possession of firearms and no one steps forward to surrender the ones they have? Okay, let's loosen that a little bit... what if the federal government outlaws private possession of firearms and 15,000,000 are surrendered immediately, but that number dries up as fast as Pet Rock sales did in the 70's?

So now you've got 275,000,000 firearms illegally possessed by US Citizens. Will the anti-gun crowd force the federal government to institute a door-to-door search for said illegal weapons?

Who fires the first shot, and where does it all end? I know there are a large number of DUers who'd post pictures of AC-130s or Abrams Tanks and say "right here"... but really?

[RKP5637]

10. I have mixed feelings about 2A, because the outlaw of private ownership of firearms seems to

imply one has a gov. they can trust ... and history certainly bears proof that this does not go on forever.

[cherokeeprogressive]

14. Personally, I don't think there IS a government that can be trusted.

Think about it. Tonight is the "White House Correspondents Dinner". The media, invited to free dinner at the White House which includes bags of swag that weigh 20 lbs.

Paid for by whom?

It's a biiiiig clubbbbb, and we ain't in it.

And tomorrow there will be just a little bit less cynicism and skepticism in the reporting. They'll all be "basking in the glory" the way people do who've just had AWESOME sex.

[RKP5637]

17. Yep, quite true. The problem with governments is power and money rise to the top, crooks and

control freaks. It's often not the government, but the people that move into power positions with agendas often masked from the populace. As George Carlin once said, you ain't part of the club.

[William Seger]

9. "It sounds like pseudoscience, but it's a published theory."

Why is there a "but" in that sentence instead of "and"?

[RKP5637]

11. Yep!!! n/t

[Captain Stern]

16. Because if it's published, it's not pseudoscience

Don't you know anything? Are you some kind of moran? Everybody (that's smart, that is) knows that if something gets published it has to be true!

The Civil War happened in 1870 (ok..not exactly 1870 but really close to it), and then there was tons of civil unrest 50 years later (the first World War even happened around then), and then exactly 50 years later there was more bad stuff going on. And no bad stuff happened at all between those times.

You sound like some kind of coincidence-denier to me or one of those people that thinks facts and reason matter. You are so unenlightened.

[baldguy]

22. Like, just because a person has a degree they can't believe in nutty crap?

[Captain Stern]

24. Yeah. Exactly like that. (nt)

[JanMichael]

12. I hope not but - the Left (oddly) wins most organized shooting wars.

The Spanish Revolution (incorrectly called a "civil" war) was a straight up loss. Other than that it has usually been a KO or TKO the other way. Not saying the outcomes were always what we wanted but when the shit hits the fan...

[abelenkpe]

13. I dunno

I have a lot of relatives back in VA that are republicans. Far right birther, tea party types. Can't see them ever abandoning their political brand or finding fault with it. But change does need to happen. Was hoping it could happen peacefully.

[bluedigger]

15. Sounds like psychohistory to me.

Isaac Asimov invented it in his Foundation series decades ago.

The Foundation Series is a science fiction series by Isaac Asimov. There are seven volumes in the Foundation Series proper, which in its in-universe chronological order are Prelude to Foundation, Forward the Foundation, Foundation, Foundation and Empire, Second Foundation, Foundation's Edge, and Foundation and Earth.
The premise of the series is that mathematician Hari Seldon spent his life developing a branch of mathematics known as psychohistory, a concept of mathematical sociology (analogous to mathematical physics). Using the laws of mass action, it can predict the future, but only on a large scale; it is error-prone on a small scale. It works on the principle that the behaviour of a mass of people is predictable if the quantity of this mass is very large (equal to the population of the galaxy, which has a population of quadrillions of humans, inhabiting millions of star systems). The larger the number, the more predictable is the future.
Using these techniques, Seldon foresees the imminent fall of the Galactic Empire, which encompasses the entire Milky Way, and a dark age lasting thirty thousand years before a second great empire arises. Seldon's psychohistory also foresees an alternative where the intermittent period will last only one thousand years. To ensure his vision of a second great Empire comes to fruition, Seldon creates two Foundations—small, secluded havens of all human knowledge—at "opposite ends of the galaxy".
The focus of the series is on the First Foundation and its attempts to overcome various obstacles during the formation and installation of the Second Empire, all the while being silently guided by the unknown specifics of The Seldon Plan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series

[RKP5637]

18. Thanks for the info and link! n/t

[jazzimov]

19. .

[Populist_Prole]

20. Could be, but if so, it'll be before 2020

Depends where the graph curves cross:

Cons cater to the benighted that carry their water as long as they provide aid and comfort to paranoid gun nuts. But you see; those same people must be subdued when their usefulness outlives itself and the plutocrats no longer need them...and the rural conservatives finally realize it. If the oligarchy moves too fast to preclude the working class gun nuts fighting back, they lose momentum in the form of the lack of rural conservatives voting against their interests ( which is necessary to sustain the conservative movement ) but if they advance their plans to place 99 percent of the US in serfdom too fast, their formerly loyal rural conservatives ( and everybody else ) will turn on them with too much means to fight for the oligarchy's comfort.

[RKP5637]

21. Yep, that will be the turning point when those being

used finally get a clue as to what's going on, that they are just pawns in the big boys game. As George Carlin said, it's a club and you ain't part of it.

[cali]

23. sounds like a bullshit theory to me

"Pigliucci isn't convinced that the 50-year cycle of violence Turchin has identified in U.S. history reflects more than just a random fluctuation. "The database is too short: the entire study covers the period 1780-2010, a mere 230 years," Pigliucci wrote in an email. "You can fit at most four 50-year peaks and two secular ones. I just don't see how one could reasonably exclude that the observed pattern is random. But of course we would have to wait a lot longer to collect new data and find out."

[LWolf]

25. Other:

If I'm still alive in 2019, ask me then.

[Progressive dog]

26. Would this be like Armageddon light

and so I don't have to dig my bunker quite as deep, or is it really just more pseudoscience?

It's pseudoscience.

[RKP5637]

28. LOL ... I would hold off on the bunker! n/t

[graham4anything]

27. President Clinton will have a 80-20 majority, with the extremists on both sides shunned by 2018.

With President Obama's agenda continuing forever with President Clinton and VP Napolitano.
and the 2nd long since reinterpreted so the NRA's/gunnies purpose to hoard guns and bullets (to overthrow the government will not happen boo hoo to the gunnies)

And Homeland Security Director will be Mike Bloomberg

[RKP5637]

29. Yep, 2016 will be the turning point. Many people I talk to are totally fed up with

extremists.

[graham4anything]

30. Good. The more the merrier.

People forget that President Obama ran on bringing the people together.

Now, the louder voices took that as something else and have attempted to hide that message.

And the media likes a close game, a war between the parties.

I would venture about 50-70% of the republican party are sick of it.

It can be 80-20.

[Eleanors38]

31. May be pseudo sci or sci fiction, may not be a unified theory..

But we have a lot of income inequality, financial unreliability, distrust if government, collapse of "unifying" communal legitimacy, and a conditiom of PermaWar™. That mix is quite volatile.

Since the subject was broached, if it hits the fan, the government will move to ban civilian possession of firearms. I hope some will see that a far better move would be to overhaul the Democratic Party and make it a force for liberal and progressive change.

[RKP5637]

32. And I think underlying all of this is the gov. has lost creditability with many of the masses,

because gov. today is often seen as corporate shills and/or authoritarians wherein "we the people" come last. To me, it's is no longer a gov. for all of the people, but rather some of the people.

[KittyWampus]

33. 50 years is the Chiron return if one were interested in exploring the symbolism of that archetypical

energy.

Chiron is about assimilating past experiences which were hurtful and using them to grow and reach out to others to help them.

[RKP5637]

34. Thanks! I will read up on this and my quick glance on Google indicated something I will be quite

interested in reading about ...