Frederic Volpi: Turkey key to ending international stand-off with Damascus

[tabatha]

Published on Sunday 5 February 2012 00:00

A UN RESOLUTION is unlikely to persuade president Bashar al-Assad to step aside. It may increase the pressure on him to take a different course of action – a more reformist course, perhaps – but it will not increase the pressure on him to do something significant or decisive in the short-term.

However, that does not mean that it then becomes likely that there will be a war in Syria, and that we will go down the path of a Libyan-type intervention. The UK and other European countries that were involved in the Libyan conflict do not have the military and financial capacity to sustain another conflict of this type. They need a period of time to replenish their military hardware and equipment and boost their military budget in order to afford another military intervention. It looks simply too difficult and too expensive at this time. The US, meanwhile, will not be very keen to go it alone. America was reluctant in the Libyan situation, and will be even more so now.

You also have to remember that, in Libya, there were periods before the intervention when it looked like the opposition was gaining the upper hand in the fight against the Gaddafi regime. This is not the case in Syria. The Damascus government still very much has the upper hand, while the opposition in Syria is quite weak and disorganised.

Making a regional comparison, Syria has more in common with Yemen, where you have had an ongoing confrontation between the opposition and the regime for many, many months, before some kind of resolution of the conflict, which involved the exile of president Ali Abdullah Saleh and some transition of power.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/international/frederic_volpi_turkey_key_to_ending_international_stand_off_with_damascus_1_2097613

Exactly what I have been saying -

- there will be no NATO war with Syria
- NATO cannot afford another war
- Obama was reluctant to get involved in Libya
- For a while, it looked as though Libyans could do it on their own
- NATO only got involved in Libya when asked for help
- The Arab League is trying for a Yemen type resolution for Syria - that is what the UN resolution was all about
- It was also about stopping the killing; even South Africa and India supported it

India supports Arab League effort for peaceful end to Syrian crisis

Voting in favour of the United Nations Security Council resolution that called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, India on Saturday said it support the effort of the Arab League for a peaceful resolution of the 11-month-old Syrian crisis. "Our support for the Resolution is in accordance with our support for the efforts by the Arab League for a peaceful resolution of the crisis through a Syrian-led inclusive political process," said Hardeep Singh Puri, the Indian Ambassador to the UN.

India along with the US and 11 others backed the move. France, Britain and Pakistan also voted in favor of the resolution.

Explaining the reasons for India's position on Syria, Puri told the powerful 15-member body that New Delhi believes that the leadership of Syria is a matter for the Syrian people to decide. "It would be necessary for all opposition forces in Syria to peacefully engage in constructive dialogue with the authorities. We hope that this will create a new environment for peace and facilitate a political process," he underlined.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/World/India-supports-Arab-League-effort-for-peaceful-end-to-Syrian-crisis/Article1-806904.aspx

[David__77]

1. The opposition has precluded the scenario outlined by India's ambassador.

The Arab League suggestion does not call for Assad to step down, but only to delegate power so that a "unity government" could be formed through consultation. The opposition SNC would not even speak with Syrian government representatives in Moscow this past week. They have made it very clear that they are not interested in any negotiation except relating to terms of surrender.

Now that it's clear that the UN will not support adopt a resolution advocating regime change, arms embargo, or sanctions, we will see another turn of events. Various Arab states will sever diplomatic relations with Syria; however, it is unclear what this means in practice. If reports of escalation in Syria are true, then it's possible that thing may be over sooner than many would think, and not end the way most in the West expect.

[tabatha]

2. You did not report accurately - surprise, surprise.

Ghalioun has signaled the SNC's willingness to enter into such talks, but is holding fast to the caveat that Assad first surrender power.

“Assad’s fall is a condition to launch negotiations to begin the transition to a democratic government,” Ghalioun said in remarks published Tuesday by the daily An-Nahar.

Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/Middle-East/2012/Jan-31/161658-ghalioun-ties-russia-talks-to-assad-exit.ashx#ixzz1lTegpeyr
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)

[David__77]

4. Exactly, which is surrender.

They will not have talks with the Syrian government, which is headed by Assad.

"It would be necessary for all opposition forces in Syria to peacefully engage in constructive dialogue with the authorities." The principal "authority" is none other than the president, Assad. This resolution did not call for Assad to resign.

[tabatha]

3. BTW

Al Jazeera reporting Hezbollah and Iranian mercenaries fighting for Assad regime in #Syria; as witnessed by defecting soldiers. #Homs

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PARIS, Feb 4 (Reuters) - President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Saturday France was consulting with Arab and European countries to create a contact group on Syria to find a solution to its crisis after Russia and China vetoed a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

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I wonder what makes you think that a country belongs to just one family, who are allowed to rule as a brutal dictatorship - and treats other people as less than human. Do you not believe in human rights? or is that just for you where you have the freedom to read and write what you like?

[David__77]

5. I think no such thing, and I have great respect for many elements of the opposition.

There are hardworking, dedicated progressive opponents of Baathism in Syria. They are not represented by the SNC or "Free Syria Army."

An interesting blog: http://nebrasdalloul.blogspot.com/

The opposition is not a monolith:
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2011/kedri180911p.html