Urgent Warning On New Bird Flu H7N9: Could Pose Global Threat

[Robb]

As new death reports come in, a team of experts from China published a scary report yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) suggesting that the new H7N9 avian flu virus is even more deadly than previously believed.

The conclusions: H7N9 causes unusually severe respiratory infection, sepsis and brain damage, and appears to be resistant to vaccination and treatment.

But here’s where it gets really worrisome. In a commentary on “global concerns” pertaining to H7N9, also in the NEJM, influenza experts Timothy Uyeki, MD and Nancy Cox discuss the potential of H7H9 to cause a pandemic (a fast-moving global epidemic) and warn that this possibility is real.

Given the severity and speed with which H7N9 is infecting and killing people, Uyeki and Cox write, “It is possible that these severely ill patients represent the tip of the iceberg and that there are many more as-yet-undetected mild and asymptomatic infections.”

With today’s toll now at 11 deaths and 43 people infected, the threat is getting real.

Read More: http://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2013/04/12/new-bird-flu-danger-worse-than-believed-says-urgent-report/

[neverforget]

1. I hope this fizzles out without becoming airborne

[ReRe]

2. That kind of flu...

... would be like a "loaded gun" fired at my chest. Seriously. I got a flu shot back in Nov and ended up in the hospital in Feb with a type of flu that wasn't included in the flu shot. Hope that new bird flu stays over there...

[AverageJoe90]

3. Until I see some real cause for concern.....

I'm not going to worry. Sorry, but this very well looks like just another case of hyperbole infecting the media. There's a far higher chance of NK's Kim going insane and nuking somebody, than a world-wide pandemic, really.

[Mojorabbit]

6. I disagree

I have followed it from the beginning. Most top virologists are very concerned and every country in the world is preparing in one way or another. We just had a pandemic. Why would you think it isn't possible to have another now? This one is low path in birds so it is harder to contain the spread of the virus cause no birds are dying to mark where it is percolating. It has also obtained many of the mutations necessary to go pandemic. I think it lacks two right now. It may not happen but it certainly is a very likely candidate. We are up to 49 cases in two weeks as of this morning.

[AverageJoe90]

10. No, we did NOT have a pandemic, not here in America, at least(what were you even talking about)?

And frankly, as I said to Marrah, this same general heightened fear was also present during SARS, the H5N1 Bird Flu problem, and Swine Flu. And absolutely NONE of these three ended up becoming a pandemic as a few fringe nuts and fearmongering mainstream media insisted they would.

[byeya]

11. SARS did not become a pandemic because the Chinese and Canadian officials got on top of it

right way.
A sick man across the hotel hallway transmitted it to an older lady who carried it on an airplane to Toronto. The Canadians were alerted by the Chinese after the Chinese knew what they were dealing with.
The Chinese authorities quarantined all who were sick or came in close contact with the carrier.
It was a very serious situation nipped in the bud.

[Marrah_G]

13. There is a great documentary out there on the SARS outbreak

The medical staff in Toronto were truly heroic.

[byeya]

15. Yes the medical staff were helpful and with socialized medicine the sick woman

went straight to a doctor. That may not happen here.
The Chinese had a terrific system in place and it worked.

Socialism saved humanity - I'm not surprised.

I am glad the disease didn't start in the USA or India.

[Marrah_G]

16. omg India would especially be a nightmare

Especially in those huge slums (for lack of a better word). Yikes.

[AverageJoe90]

19. That may be true, I think.

[Mojorabbit]

22. We did have a pandemic

moreover it killed a lot of people
June 25, 2012
The swine flu virus, H1N1, may have killed 15 times the number of people counted by the World Health Organization, according to a new study. And unlike the seasonal flu, the H1N1 pandemic struck down mostly young people, many living in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Beginning in 2009, the virus swept the globe, and the WHO counted 18,500 swine flu deaths that had been confirmed by laboratory tests. But according to new estimates from researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the virus probably killed between 105,700 and 400,000 people around the world in its first year alone, and an additional 46,000 to 179,000 people likely died of cardiovascular complications from the virus.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/swine-flu-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-15-times-higher/story?id=16646281#.UWoQ2qKG2So

[Marrah_G]

25. Yup- my friend was only 34

It could have been alot worse.

This new one is scary because it's not killing the birds. There is no trail of dead birds to follow. It just moved 750 miles to Bejing...with no dead birds along the way. They still aren't sure if its going human to human yet though ( last I heard)

[Mojorabbit]

32. Tonight it also moved to Henan province

with two cases.

China says new bird flu cases found in central China By REUTERS04/14/2013 05:13Two people in the central Chinese province of Henan have been infected by a new strain of avian influenza, the first cases found in the region and bringing the total number nationwide to 51, Xinhua state news agency said on Sunday.
One of the victims, a 34-year old man in the city of Kaifeng, is now critically ill in hospital, while the other, a 65-year old farmer from Zhoukou, is stable. The two cases do not appear to be connected.

A total of 19 people in close contact with the two victims were under observation but had shown no signs of infection, Xinhua said.
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=309746

[Marrah_G]

33. Hopefully it's just bird to human transmission

[Mojorabbit]

37. I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed! :) nt

[AverageJoe90]

48. Maybe, but I was referring to just the U.S. alone that time. n/t

[TM99]

44. CDC has confirmed that the 2012-2013 flu season

in the United States reached epidemic levels, the worst flu epidemic in 10 years here.

WHO & CDC, despite your ignorance, have grave concerns about SARS which is a novel coronavirus as it was stopped from reaching pandemic levels but has not been eradicated. The probability of it returning in pandemic form is still possibility.

H1N1 was indeed a world-wide and United States pandemic. There were 1.6 million confirmed clinical cases world-wide and almost 20,000 deaths. In the US, there were over 100,000 cases, almost 30,000 hospitalizations, and almost 3500 deaths.

So you are factually wrong about 'Swine Flu' not reaching a pandemic level. Your knee-jerk reaction to the MSM has you over-looking the real threats and misery caused by these viral epidemics and pandemics.

I will continue to trust the scientists who actually study this as opposed to an 'average Joe' pontificating on the Internet.

Thanks.

[AverageJoe90]

49. Ignorance, my ass.

3500 deaths, while tragic, is by no means a 'pandemic' by any reasonable standard. The regular flu kills about 36,000 people in the U.S., alone, on average.

So you are factually wrong about 'Swine Flu' not reaching a pandemic level.

No, not at all; 1.6 million infections and only 20,000 deaths is hardly a pandemic with a world of 7 billion people. Now, if this had been just a single area, like New York, or Tokyo, then you'd have more of a point.

Your knee-jerk reaction to the MSM has

To the contrary: I am merely engaging in healthy skepticism. I have seen plenty of scares over the past decade, and none of them have come to pass, and this one isn't at all likely to either.

[TM99]

52. Yes, ignorance!

Look up the actual definition of an epidemic and a pandemic.

I will give you a small hint. It has nothing to do with your skepticism or 'reasonable standard' of deaths.

I will wait for you to look it up and then return to admit your error.

[AverageJoe90]

54. While it is admittedly true that there is no one standard, as per Wiki.....

It does not, however, have any other effect on what I have said. 1.6 million people infected worldwide isn't exactly large-scale compared to 7 billion total scale.

[TM99]

58. In fact, there is an internationally

Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2013, 09:02 AM - Edit history (1)

accepted standard definition in the Dictionary of Epidemiology.

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/pandemic_preparedness/basic_facts/Pages/definition_of_pandemic.aspx

The 2009 H1N1 'swine flu' was a novel Type A that met all the requirements including world-wide epidemic proportions. Did it kill as many as the 1918-1919 'swine flu' known as the Spanish Flu? No, but a pandemic is not defined by the number of people who die.

The reason why this current bird flu is of potential concern is that it is a novel type. If, and yes, we can not predict whether it will or will not, but if it does cross the animal/human barrier, the potential for another pandemic is, of course, very high. Will it kill only 3500 as the 2009 one did? Or will it kill millions as the 1918-1919 one did? Which do you plan for as a matter of public health policy? Obviously the worst-case and not the best case or you will come up short-handed.

'Skepticism' seems to be thrown around a lot online today not as a valid discussion of reason and/or science but more as a reaction to the faith or true belief involved in the propaganda of MSM or of conspiracy theories. The proper use of words and scientific terms is important if a discussion is not to devolve into school yard antics instead of the sharing of valid information that involves genuine concern.

An article in the New England Journal of Medicine on this novel H7N9 as severely deadly as it has been should be taken very seriously.

[distantearlywarning]

64. I love it when internet know-it-alls get schooled by science

Thanks for your posts in this thread.

[Marrah_G]

67. It's pretty clear that he isn't going to listen to anything anyone say

He knows!

[AverageJoe90]

84. .....

'Skepticism' seems to be thrown around a lot online today not as a valid discussion of reason and/or science but more as a reaction to the faith or true belief involved in the propaganda of MSM or of conspiracy theories.

Yes, but I myself have used reason in discussing the matter. An H7N9 pandemic is not impossible, that is true, but there is simply no evidence that we, at least those of us who don't live in East Asia or travel there frequently, need to be seriously worried right now. And it is unfortunate that some people on this site are stoking the flames of hysteria as we speak(one must imagine how much more chaotic DU would be if a H7N9 pandemic DOES actually become an imminent threat.).

[TM99]

99. I may agree with you in principle

that hysteria is unwarranted but educated caution and awareness is necessary.

However, if you start from a place of not even accepting the proper definition of words and denying undeniable facts (the 2009 H1N1 Swine flu was a pandemic) then, no your arguments are lacking in the proper use of reason.

You continue to do this again and again in this thread with the erroneous belief that nothing like the Spanish Flu could happen again. Yet, history shows that to be wrong and modern epidemiological research does as well. 1918, 1957, and 1968 were three flu pandemics last century that together killed millions. Within 6 months, the 1957 Chinese flu had spread through out the entire world killing thousands. When a bird flu mutates to spread from human to human and this combines with the incredible amounts of world travel, there will be millions of deaths UNLESS proper precautions are taken.

In the US, we now argue on websites whether such events even happen. We like to argue that it is all a government conspiracy or perhaps it is just hysteria as you put it. We have millions of idiots, and yes, I mean that in the harshest of terms, who believe that vaccines cause autism and other health problems so they avoid the simplest form of control - a flu vaccine. I have a compromised immune system and even during the 2012/2013 flu season, I wore a mask when I went out. I also washed my hands constantly, avoided crowds, and got my flu vaccine. Americans stare at me like I am crazy wearing a mask. In China, where so many of these viruses originate and mutate, it is simply a normal everyday precaution.

So I must vehemently disagree that this OP was in any shape or form stoking the flames of hysteria. It was a presentation of an article worth noting and should encourage as many as possible to get their flu vaccines, to be aware of a potential threat (even if it is a world away), and to educate themselves on influenza, pandemics, and the general science of epidemiology.

[bhikkhu]

85. Preparing how?

? Should we all go urgently shopping?

[Mojorabbit]

88. That looks more like a zombie apocalypse bag! :) nt

[Marrah_G]

8. I disagree

One of the things that HELP the containment of these things is by making everyone aware of how dangerous it can be so they take precautions.

If you listen to the virologists, a bad pandemic isn't an if...it is a when. These aren't politicians or the media, it is the scientists. There are some excellent books out there on the topic.

I didn't take it seriously either. Then in Oct 2005 a friend in Germany went into the hospital and was dead a few days later from swine flu. She was 34. Since then, I don't take these things lightly.

[AverageJoe90]

9. "One of the things that HELP the containment of these things is by making everyone aware....."

Aware, yes. But way too often, the media is all too quick to sensationalize things and blow things our of proportion.

I, too, remember the swine flu crisis. And I actually did get worried about infection, particularly since I live in a state that's right next to Mexico. And yet, no pandemic ever happened. Same thing went on for SARS an the Bird Flu, too.

I'm sorry, Marrah, but pretty much every mention of a supposed possible pandemic has been accompanied by nothing but fearmongering, and YES, it IS the media. And politicians, too.

(And I am terribly sorry to hear about your friend, btw. It's always sad to lose someone you care about so early. )

[byeya]

12. You are correct - it was a serious situation and the next one may be worse.

SARS had the characteristic of having the contagious person very ill before he/she was able to transmit the disease. The next disease may be transmissible before symptoms appear.

Bats are a likely vector because one in four mammals are bats and, more importantly, bats roost in colonies of up to a couple of hundred thousand making the sharing of viruses very easy.

[alphafemale]

53. lol..yeah. The WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!! threads are entertainingly.

I can't imagine living at that level of constant panic.

There's a bunny on the porch!

It must be RABID.


It is going to break down the door and bite us
and we shall then surely die....in throes of agony.

[AverageJoe90]

55. Do I detect a Monty Python reference somewhere?

[Logical]

97. So true, we hear this crap 20 times a year. Crying wolf. n-t

[AverageJoe90]

98. And that worries me a little.

What if, perhaps, the FBI unveils a potential bioterror plot, in whatever major city, and people end up turning a blind eye because all the failed mass pandemic predictions of the recent past(HIV being one of the few exceptions, though ironically, it's not all that contagious outside of direct contact with blood)? And what if they can't stop it in time and 50,000 or 100,000 or even more people drop dead in a major city like Chicago, Dallas, Houston, L.A., Seattle, Portland?
(I realize that even this is unlikely, though not nearly as much as H7N9 being a repeat of the Spanish Flu, but there is a real chance that it could happen.)

[winter is coming]

4. If we choose Hillary as our nominee now, we'll be protected from the flu.

[defacto7]

5. Viruses are unpredictable

The likelihood of it becoming airborne is extremely slim but it can happen. It's also very likely that it can mutate itself into nothing but cold symptoms in a short period. A lot depends on how the hosts (us) react to it when it is contracted. At this point I guess it's just transmitted from animal to people and not person to person but that can change anytime. It's just completely unknown what it can become or not. I'd venture to postulate that there have been many viruses that have become extremely deadly and could have caused millions of deaths but just mutated itself out of existence in a short period of time.

All that said, we should always be mindful of viruses and follow instructions when warning are given but don't waste time worrying about them. It's futile. It's like worrying about an asteroid destroying the planet. We figure out how to deflect it when it comes because it will likely happen, but we don't dig a hole and hide.

[Mojorabbit]

7. WHO is investigating a couple of clusters

within families. Not enough evidence to tell either way so far if they all caught it from a bird or if it was limited human to human.

[AverageJoe90]

18. Thank you for bringing some much-needed level headedness to this thread.

All that said, we should always be mindful of viruses and follow instructions when warning are given but don't waste time worrying about them. It's futile. It's like worrying about an asteroid destroying the planet. We figure out how to deflect it when it comes because it will likely happen, but we don't dig a hole and hide.

Well said. Nothing wrong with "just-in-case" preparation, as the same with a Yellowstone eruption, or nuclear dirty-bomb terrorism in Chicago, or an F-5 tornado ripping its way across Dallas, or a Cat. 5 hurricane levelling Miami or Jacksonville, but I do hope the media doesn't decide to aid and abet, and engage in hard-core fearmongering like they did with Bird Flu a while back.....but given the nature of our media, it may unfortunately be a given.

I'd venture to postulate that there have been many viruses that have become extremely deadly and could have caused millions of deaths but just mutated itself out of existence in a short period of time.

I'd go farther and say that a global pandemic in this day and age is extremely unlikely barring a subsequent and exacerbated set of truly unfortunate circumstances coming together at just the right times, and lots of government bungling, amongst other things; the Spanish Flu, was a one-in-many-times exception that is not at all likely to repeat itself in any timeframe we can conceive(at least, not naturally, anyway!).

[Mojorabbit]

24. Do you have any scientific information that backs that up?

That it would be an extremely unlikely event? I would love to read it. Thanks!

[AverageJoe90]

46. No, but it's really based on common sense.

I mean, that should be obvious to most around here, I'd suspect.....we ain't like the InfoWars or ATS crowd(one would hope, anyway).

[Mojorabbit]

89. Anyone who has done any serious reading about past pandemics

would disagree with your assessment.

[AverageJoe90]

90. Not at all. This isn't 14th century Europe....or early 20th Century NYC, you know.

Times have changed. Hygiene's gotten better. So has medical knowledge. In fact, if today's understanding of diseases and how to minimize risks had been around in 14th Century Europe, it's not at all hard to believe that the death toll could have been significantly lower than the 1/3rd of all Europeans who actually died; and the same could also go for the Spanish Flu as well.

We are extraordinarily fortunate that a Spanish Flu or Black Death level pandemic is now far less likely in today's world than it was 100 years ago, let alone a thousand, barring some collosal screw-ups by government. coupled with some truly unfortunate circumstances that may happen to come together, at all the exact right times.

[Mojorabbit]

92. As a retired nurse with some background in science and medical history, I disagree. nt

[AverageJoe90]

96. And that's your right. But I'm still correct, though. n/t

[Mojorabbit]

100. 102 cases and 20 dead as of today. Still moving slow and steady. nt

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-04/21/c_124610132.htm

[Marrah_G]

26. The experts tend to disagree with you

They expect one to happen.

[AverageJoe90]

45. Which experts? Which experts are EXPECTING an H7N9 pandemic?

There's a difference between only remotely possible and expected.....should be obvious, right?

[Marrah_G]

66. Do some reading on viruses

There are a number of non-fiction books out there.

And by experts I mean people who study and work with these viruses every day.

[AverageJoe90]

82. How about some ACTUAL research papers? I'd like to see some actual papers.....

.....from some proof of an inevitable H7N9 pandemic.

[Avalux]

38. AverageJoe90, please read this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=228x5742

After you do, you'll want to edit your post.

[AverageJoe90]

47. I did. Doesn't change a thing.

Your post is from '05, btw, and bird flu hasn't been a major worry for a few years now.

[graham4anything]

60. It was for the 100s of thousands affected worldwide.

The US is normally late in getting new flu and bad ones, because of the circular route it takes.

But 100s of thousands worldwide, especially south of the USA got very sick and died.

To say there was nothing as you have in about 10 posts on this thread, distorts entirely how dangerous the last one was.

Had there been no quarantines, and vaccines made, billions could have died and been very ill, as it was it was one of the worst outbreaks in decades.

Better to be 100% prepared than 25% not prepared.

Wakefield be damned.

[Marrah_G]

68. You know what Joe?

I hope you are right and all the scientists are wrong.

[AverageJoe90]

83. But the problem is, there's no proof that anybody is EXPECTING a pandemic from this virus...........

....only that there is some heightened concern. There is a major difference there.

[graham4anything]

56. Quack Wakefield has caused great damage. Vaccines put a ring around it

The entire population does not need shots, but the Wakefields out there telling people there are no dangers has caused enough people to be wary of it.
Because if 75 to 99% get it, the ones remaining that don't are most likely covered as there is not much room for the host to cling on to to reach the few that don't.
But first the mass majority need the vaccine so the hate-vacciners can survive not getting one.

I was damn happy to get a vaccine last time, and hope one is available shortly. My shoulder is waiting for it, as is my family and friends

The late winter -early spring is normally when major new flu and panademics arise.
and in this day and age, travel worldwide faster than back in the older days.

Why some always want to not let science do their work I don't know.

People telling people not to worry, and the Wakefields telling people not to vaccinate can cause the end of the world because one cannot all of a sudden months from now
say, oh sheet, this is real, do something.

It takes months and months and months in advance to make and mass produce the vaccines.

Tell you what, if there is a vaccine and the naysayers don't want it, please step aside at that time and let those that do have it.
But let me tell you, from past experiences-

when there is an orderly line waiting outside a vaccination center in each town, there is always someone attempting to cut their family in, and guess what- 9 out of 10 times, that person and family will be the one wanting theirs first, after telling the world that there was no danger.

Which is why a good orderly line is always needed so there are no cutters creating a panic and riot.

So, when the time comes for a vaccination and one still has that viewpoint, please step aside, I want my family to have a vaccination, thank you very much.

And it is amazing that one thinks there was not a major epidemic a few years ago.
Tens of thousands die and were sick in places other than America.
The world exists you know.

sheesh.

[AverageJoe90]

61. Graham, I'm not against vaccines.

I apologize, but I don't recall making any anti-vax statements here.....maybe it was someone else?

[graham4anything]

62. But

In a way, you are fighting it and it has the same results, IF people are listening to your words.
You don't have to be saying anything like Wakefield, but if people let their guards down-

There is no quick means of having a mass vaccine.
Therefore, one cannot wait, and one has to do all they can EVEN IF 9 out 10 times it ends up being a waste.
Because the 1 times it is real, any wait will cause thousands of deaths.

Because it IS going to happen.
You said something like IF.
Someday it IS. NO ifs about it. Someday there will be a worldwide pandemic again.

Now, maybe with penicillin and pneumonia shots now available, a 1919 won't happen that way.
However, the world age population is young-
maybe older people will have some immunity, so it won't be as fatal worldwide in countries with great health care.

but in countries that do not have great health care, it could be billions and billions dead.

And what if any benefit from priors doesn't help this time?

Then we all are at risk to die and no, its not as vague as an asteroid.
Because there are preventions from asteroids, and time to prepare (it is not beyond the realm that it could be shot down).

Until the day comes where overnight billions of doses could be instantly made(which is impossible) and distributed immediately worldwide) we do need to fear this.
It only takes one person on a plane

Or person X. Witness the AIDS virus.And witness how many decades it took just to control it (and add while Reagan slept for 7 of them).
Then witness the panic that would ensue, and if everyone stays home and under their covers

witness-NO supplies, no stores, no food, no gas, nothing.

Well,Until it happens it can't happen.

It can happen.

(cue in for effect, the day after tomorrow movie, and in the end, the Cheney character begging to be let out of the fence he himself erected to not let people in,
or, cue in Qaddafi in his last five minutes alive hidden in a sewer then taken out.)

There was near panic.
(yes, some of this is a little hyperbole.)

[HereSince1628]

14. At this point all you can do with that warning is wash your hands

This is about the time of year that end selection of the viruses for the coming season's vaccine


http://www.aimtoolkit.org/influenza/Edu_Annual_flu_Vax_Production_Timeline.pdf

[defacto7]

21. ...and don't underestimate the usefulness of doing so.

It's no little thing. Washing your hands is really the number one best thing we can do to prevent spread of infection period. But don't over do it at home because we actually need some germs to be healthy.

[Marrah_G]

27. Which is in itself a huge thing

Sometimes people forget- these warning can be a good reminder that it can literally save your life.

We also need to get employers to understand that employees need sick time and need to be able to stay home when sick. So often the people with the lowest wages and no healthcare are forced to suffer through work, spreading germs unnecessarily.

[HereSince1628]

28. Well, I am hopeful that sometime around Sept, there will be a new vaccine that includes

antigens from this new virus.

At that point we will be somewhat better able to do something other than washing our hands and keeping them away from mucous membranes.

[laundry_queen]

76. They are working on a long-term flu vaccine

a vaccine that contains mostly the building blocks of the flu virus so that you wouldn't need a new one every year. It's supposed to be ready within the next 5 years or so. Hopefully it's ready before the next pandemic.

[SidDithers]

17. Careful about Forbes "sites" contributor stories, Robb...

they're unedited contributions, from anyone and everyone. And, like anything unedited on the internet, are just as likely to be crap.

Oh, and do you still recognize Forbes as the highbrow magazine for investor types? Because guess what: Their website now hosts hundreds of unedited blogs from random, often unpaid writers off the street. Seriously, you can write for them if you want. So now any time you see a Forbes.com story and the URL has "sites/(some dude's name here)" in the middle, you're not reading a news story from professional Forbes reporters/editors, you're reading a blog post from some random person. That's why you can see a "Forbes" article claiming that a majority of scientists doubt global warming -- in reality, it's a press release written by a shill for the Heartland Institute, an oil-industry-funded group that ran billboards comparing environmentalists to serial killers.

Read more: http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-easy-ways-to-spot-b.s.-news-story-internet/#ixzz2QNxU3KMa

I've been following H7N9 a bit, and have posted these two articles you might find interesting:

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_examiner/2013/04/the_h7n9_bird_flu_in_china_how_dangerous_is_it.html
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/04/new-flu-news/



Sid

[OneGrassRoot]

20. I didn't know that about Forbes. Thanks. :) n/t

[AverageJoe90]

51. Thanks, Sid.

To be fair, H7N9 is certainly not something to totally blow off; it very well could kill tens of thousands if it does go crazy. The one good thing about fast-and-furious type novel epidemics, though, is that most of them do tend to burn out after just a short time(though the Spanish Flu is one very rare exception to this rule).

[snooper2]

23. Does this mean I need to take the bird feeder down?

Or just move it closer to the fence line LOL

[Avalux]

29. No proof of human-to-human transmission yet. If it happens, then we can be really worried.

The virus is novel, so we haven't seen it before in humans and have no vaccine or drugs to combat it. No one can really predict how it will 'act'.

In 2005, there was an avian flu scare. I wrote this DU post about the influenza virus so people might understand how it works. It's of relevance now:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=228x5742

[Marrah_G]

31. If it does go human to human you should post that again

Nicely done!

[Avalux]

34. Thank you and I will definitely post it again if need be.

If I recall when I wrote that 7 years ago (!), there was a bit of hysteria going on. I just wanted people to understand, so they could filter it out. Knowledge is power.

[SidDithers]

39. Great post...

thanks so much for pulling up the link.



Sid

[Avalux]

40. Thanks Sid.

I am a bit worried about this new one....

[SidDithers]

42. Not sure if you ever read Aetiology over at Scienceblogs...

http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/

It's written by Tara C Smith, who describes herself as "Associate Professor, lab rat (microbiologist/infectious disease epidemiologist) and occasional blogger, full-time nerd".

She's often got good info, and links to interesting stuff. Check her out if you haven't already.

Actually, all of Sciencblogs is great. PZ Meyers and Orac in particular.



Sid

[Avalux]

43. Right up my alley.

Wasn't aware of the site, I'll check it out!

[graham4anything]

57. These three paragraphs from the bottom of your linked old thread-

And when it comes to vaccines, there are obstacles to the rapid development of a vaccine for a pandemic outbreak. Flu vaccines are normally grown in chicken eggs, but this will not be useful because avian influenza A is deadly to the chicken embryo. The only other option will be to use ‘reverse genetics’, which involves merging selected genetic material from the natural virus with a laboratory virus, with the resulting virus stimulating an immune response, but no disease when injected into humans. This of course, is easier said than done.

I happen to respect viruses a great deal - they are amazing creatures. I ask myself frequently how a one-celled organism dependent on others for survival can be so smart – they always seem to be one step ahead of us.

My advice if an avian flu pandemic happens - stock up on supplies and stay home.

[Zorra]

30. Bad timing for Obama making plans for Colonel Sanders to self-regulate the chicken industry.

Thank you, Robb.

[haikugal]

35. I just watched a BBC documentary

about the possibility of a pandemic from this and the science is that it will happen, we just don't know when. This is a pretty scary virus and saying that makes me a realist rather than someone running around with my hair on fire.

Given the possibility, and what it would mean, I was wondering what people were doing to provide for themselves and their families if there was a 1918 type flu event? Just a question. The documentary made me think I should try to get in more emergency supplies. No harm if nothing happens but a 3 month supply of food etc. I wouldn't expect crazed Tbaggers showing up at my door but who knows how things would go down in this country these days.

This flu goes after the 20 to 40 year olds apparently...not us older people.

I expect to be flamed but I was wondering.... here's a link to the doc if anyone is interested.

I hope I haven't broken any rules posting this video here...I expected it to just show a link.

Thank you Avalux for the link, well done.

[AverageJoe90]

50. I like the BBC, but the truth is, while a pandemic is by no means impossible......

Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:01 PM - Edit history (1)

an H7N9 pandemic, particularly a hypothetically apocalyptic scenario, isn't at all a question of when it will happen, but rather, IF.

[haikugal]

63. I think that's wishful thinking...

but each to their own. We have nothing to fight it with. Watching the doc wouldn't hurt but no worries. I don't worry about water...but I think our Grandparents had the right idea (from experience) 'put food by'....

In the doc it shows Americans with their emergency food and it's a hoot to see them so pleased with themselves and their 'snacks'...it's embarrassing.

[AverageJoe90]

86. Well, I meant an H7N9 pandemic at any rate....

As you can see, it was rather late when I wrote that. I'll go fix it now.

[byeya]

77. Pandemic? We're in the midst of one now. HIV. 30 Million dead; 34 Million infected and many are

beyond reach of effective treatment.

[AverageJoe90]

87. Fixed it. n/t

[davidpdx]

36. Several countries have been proactive in catching cases and quarantining people

When you come into Korea you go through a screening point that automatically takes your temperature. During the last bird flu outbreak I remember one time I flew in that we had to stay on the plane and everyone had to have their temperature taken before we could get off. They required a local contact number and if there was any doubt about someone else having it who was on the flight you were taken for observation.

I remember there was one incident where (and I'm not kidding here) they had a bunch of foreign teachers quarantined somewhere and they had their laptops and internet access and started blogging about it.

http://eatgreenoranges.com/2009/05/28/fallout-from-waegooks-foreign-english-teachers-quarantined-in-korea/

http://underquarantine.tumblr.com/

[byeya]

91. Can we do that here? It would have the potential of saving more lives than a terrorist(s) attack.

[Mojorabbit]

93. My husband is a family practice doc

and the cdc notified all physicians last week to keep an eye out for anyone with recent travel history to asia coming in with flu symptoms. The alert is out there and hopefully this will help catch any bad cases that might come through from that area.

[byeya]

94. Thanks! But, is the patient fitting those requirements allowed to walk out the door and infect

more people or can he/she be quarantined on the Dr's diagnosis pending a lab analysis of the virus? It can be done in China and apparently was done with the 78 year old woman in Toronto. They are in a hospital getting treatment, but they are isolated.

[Union Scribe]

41. What does "appears to be resistant to vaccination" mean?

That it isn't covered under a current vaccine or that they are having trouble formulating one? Wouldn't it be a little early to make such a dire statement?

[graham4anything]

59. I take it to mean current, because China has said they think it will be 7 months---

China has said a vaccine is planned on being ready in 7 months (which is pretty normal wait time), though not sure if the 7 months means mass produced for everyone, or the vaccine itself, then needed months to be mass produced for the world.

Which is why one needs to work on it ASAP because if they mean there is no current vaccine and it escalates rapidly, nothing can be done til that point 7 plus months away(which could be next fall at the earliest, which is right at the start of the normal flu vaccination period here in the USA).

[byeya]

65. The RNA-based viruses present many difficulties and making vaccines against them.

[Mojorabbit]

70. I read an article last week that said historically

they have had trouble making an h7 vaccine as it would not stimulate a strong enough reaction. Perhaps that is what they are speaking of.

[byeya]

74. That sounds reasonable to me. The human genome contains about 100K fragments of retrovirus DNA

That's about 8% of our total genetic material. A vaccine would have to promote immunity to a virus while not disturbing the ex-viral components of our genes.

[Union Scribe]

95. Thanks for clarification, all. nt

[redqueen]

69. 60 infected, 13 dead. I hope China gets those tests out to other countries soon. nt

[Mojorabbit]

71. Over a wide spread area too

There have to be a lot cases being missed I am guessing because of the distance between them.

[tarheelsunc]

72. I'm planning to go to China next month.

Unless it drastically blows up, I'll still be going. My only real worry is that the government will overreact and enact travel restrictions that prevent me from going. Though to be safe, I'll definitely avoid poultry over there until it passes.

[Marrah_G]

73. Cooked poultry is fine

It's the open air markets and live birds that are the big problem- absolute breeding grounds for new strains of avian flu.

There is nothing definitive yet on if this latest outbreak can spread person to person.

[byeya]

75. I think the thing to do is to avoid live chickens, ducks, geese and other birds raised for food.

[Mojorabbit]

78. This is a nice blog with lots of info presented in a concise manner

http://www.uq.edu.au/vdu/VDUInfluenza_H7N9.htm

For a collection of global news articles collected through the day, every day
Fluwikie is a good site
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/diary/5591/news-reports-for-april-14-2013

[byeya]

79. There's a recently published book SPILLOVER: ANIMAL INFECTIONS AND THE NEXT HUMAN

PANDEMIC by David Quammen which is very informative on this topic. It's fascinating, well written, and you don't have to be in a white lab coat to understand the points he makes and the examples he gives.

Big surprise to me: Bats as a major contributor to diseases that eventually end up in people.

[Marrah_G]

80. I'm listen to "The Fatal Strain" on Audiobook

Very good in depth history on Influenza, especially the most recent strains.

Also good reads/listens on the topic of Viruses:

Panic in Level 4 : Richard Preston
The Hot Zone: Richard Preston
The Viral Storm: Nathan Wolfe
Virus Ground Zero: Ed Regis
Beating back the Devil: Maryn McKenna

And now I am off to look for Spillover

[byeya]

81. Thanks, I am not familiar with that book and feel I need to be.

Spanish Flu killed 2% of those infected; 25% of Americans caught it and many many more died of this flu than were killed in WW1.

A Spanish Flu like illness killed military recruits at two newly constructed bases in Kansas before disappearing. Then the Spanish Flu(which should not be called that) came back with the returning troops.