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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJames Carville is either a delusional centrist......or a very astute observer
On Morning Schmoe, Carville said (paraphrased)
1) Most Democrats aren't all that worked up about Chained CPI.
2) Obama is fine with the complaints from "The Left. " Obama is more happy because he gota favorable editorial from places like the Washington Post and approval in media like Morning Joe.
The "He's a delusional centrist" possibility for 1) is that Democrats ARE bothered by it, but people like Carville have their fingers in their ears going "Nyah Nyah I can't hear you."
OR...
The "astute observer" possibility is that most Democrats aren't bothered by it.
Sub-possibilities are that maybe not enough are paying attention..Either because they are young enough to believe they won't get old and need SS benefits or they're affluent enough that it doesn't matter. OR the damn thing is so complicated and confusing that most people who don't follow such things don't understand it.
-------
The "delusional centrist" possibility for 2) is that Carville is wrongly projecting the thinking of most of the Beltway DC centrists onto Obama.....Perhaps Obama IS bothered by the negative reaction.
OR....
The "astute observer" possibility is that Carville is accurate in his assessment, and Obama is indeed saying "I'm so happy the Washington Post loves me. As for those leftist rabble, let 'em eat cake."
Don't know which scenarios are true. I just hope that Carville's observations are simply those of a deluded centrist.
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trumad
(41,692 posts)Those in the know that this will be disaster if implemented.
tridim
(45,358 posts)That's the whole point!
A few Democrats and various troll groups (who may or may not be Democrats) are definitely overreacting. The same overreaction has happened many times before, right here on DU.
I don't forget.
trumad
(41,692 posts)And you never did answer my qestion.
Is Obama advocating cuts for SS?
You say you answered my question---I haven't seen it.
Yes or no?
tridim
(45,358 posts)He is not ADVOCATING cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid or anything. He has not signed bills with cuts to our social programs, and he never will.
And yes, you're massively overreacting and you're giving the DU trolls a hardon.
pscot
(21,024 posts)how do they reduce the deficit by $130 billion, as claimed by the White House?
Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)However, note that in the more recent past the gap between the two has narrowed. Would it widen out again? Maybe. Maybe it'll narrow even more.
Here's the thing: any inflation measurement is inaccurate because things progress. No one buys buggy whips anymore, for instance. Or to take a more recent example, to the extent that cable bills are included in the CPI, they may be becoming increasingly irrelevant because of Hulu and Aereo and all the rest, which are heavily used by younger folks.
The chained measure takes account of this stuff because it notes where people are migrating. People almost always go to the cheaper alternative if there's one available, and that is true whether what we're talking about is the result of technological progress, as in the above, or because the price of whatever they were buying before becomes prohibitive for their budgets. But the tech progress thing is what really gets missed in fixed measures of CPI.
However, the problem here for SS is pretty obvious: older folks adopt newer technologies more slowly, and so are more affected by price rises in older technologies like cable. And of course health costs rise faster than anything else, pretty much, and older folks make far more use of health related products & services than anyone else.
So, the current CPI measure used for SS is already inadequate, BUT the chained measure may be far less inaccurate than everyone around here is assuming, and less inaccurate than the gov't is assuming as well based on its past history, depending on how they look at it.
sendero
(28,552 posts).. I'm really tired of the substitution argument.
First of all, discretionary CRAP like TV should not be part of any inflation calculation, WHO THE FUCK CARES about that SHIT - it is NOT A MAJOR PART OF ANYONE's BUDGET.
Secondly, inflation should stick to basic needs, housing, food, energy, utilities, you know THINGS THAT PEOPLE HAVE TO HAVE TO SURVIVE.
The reason and ONLY REASON this other bullshit is included is to play the substitution game to understate inflation, period, end of story.
And Chained-CPI is just a better way to do just that, UNDERSTATE INFLATION.
THAT IS ALL THEY CARE ABOUT, THEY PAY LESS BENEFITS AND COLLECT MORE TAXES BY CLAIMING INFLATION IS LESS THAN IT IS.
Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)A hundred years ago you would have hopped on your horse to get to work and oats would have been a necessary expense.
Today, you take your car and gasoline is a necessary expense.
They shouldn't adjust for that?
Or, a hundred years ago there was no such thing as central heating for most people, or indoor plumbing.
Today, everyone has it and has to pay for whatever fuel that central heating system uses and has to pay for the water they use.
But they shouldn't adjust for that either?
It's one thing to think through stuff, and another to post stupid crap. Learn something. Think.
sendero
(28,552 posts)... I've been doing so for a long time. Of course some substitutions have to be made, but using Hulu as an example doesn't make you look all that bright.
And I stand by my assertion and if you bother to google it you will find I am not remotely alone - the govt plays games to understate inflation and substitution is one of their major tools to do so.
Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)That's where it gets controversial.
Figuring out the correct allocation to be given to something like the monthly cable bill, or telephone bill, or water bill, is a non-controversial, and necessary, adjustment. If everyone starts using Hulu and cable becomes irrelevant, it gets dropped and Hulu, and Aereo and all the rest, get added.
As for my brightness, I'll brush my teeth more often if that makes you happy.
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)It would result in SS recipients receiving about $700 less per year! That is a lot of money when on average seniors receives about $14148 annually from Social Security. Poverty level is $11,490. So taking $700 from a senior is like taking one of their monthly checks. Shameful!!
trumad
(41,692 posts)Got you.
And it was just minor. Ok'''got you again.
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)Please share with us some of your privileged information.
tridim
(45,358 posts)Their record is zero percent.
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)You're "in the know" about as much as any other person sitting behind a computer in their basement.
Carry-on.
siligut
(12,272 posts)Just ask Nate Silver.
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)Nate Silver is willing to show his work and thought process. Speaking in anecdotal terms and being condescending does not put someone on the level of Nate Silver, it makes them another smarmy person behind a computer with access to Wikipedia and Google.
siligut
(12,272 posts)It just makes you look like you are taking disagreement personally.
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)There are real world consequences to this, its not just a subject for internet discussion.
siligut
(12,272 posts)But discussing it in a level-headed manner may result in solutions and/or a plan.
Marr
(20,317 posts)I'm just a poor, naive, liberal emoprog but... if my math is correct... that would make YOU the one who was wrong. Right?
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)Watch, next Rev. Wright will reappear on the drudge
Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)How did that work out?
gaspee
(3,231 posts)I hold no hope that I will ever have health insurance. And with the history of cancer in my family, access to basic medical care in the next few years would have been nice.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)It is a fact, and he's wanted those from just before he was inaugurated to pay for the bailout of his Wall Street backers who tanked the economy.
He's not playing a game; he's not bluffing.
He's the American version of Margaret Thatcher.
Myrina
(12,296 posts).... if he's referring to the elected ones, he's accurate because it doesn't bother most of them.
If he's referring to Dems as a whole - voters et al - then he's just in denial.
TheKentuckian
(25,026 posts)I think he heavily leans toward the delusional centrist side but he is capable of pretty strong observation.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)pscot
(21,024 posts)As usual.
Buffalo Bull
(138 posts)Every team needs a cheap shot artist, a ruthless bastard.
Those qualities have been use full in the past.
Consider that the GOP team is overflowing with reptiles,
i am glad he is on our side
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I would rather expand SS, but given the political reality, I can't really bring myself to get too upset about this.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)More and more middle class is becoming working poor and will become retired poor....Especially as Fat Corporations slash pensions and benefits for retirees.
slow it for the middle class?
Really.
Hey i have a proposal--- let's up SS payments to the middle class rather than cut it.
Sound good?
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'd like SS to pay more and to start earlier. I'd also like world peace.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)The exemptions are only for the extremely low income, and unless you think a person making 16K a year is 'middle class and rich' the you are cheering for cuts to people with far less than you have, and of course you are ignoring the many ways the CPI alters the tax margins and tax credits of working people up and down the income ladder.
Perhaps part of the problems lies in the binary way you and others of your opinion seem to see things. Choices are 'my blood boils' or 'I don't give a fuck'. In the real world of people, there is a vast stretch of territory between apathy and boiling blood all of that territory open to you and anyone else.
tularetom
(23,664 posts)The next round of presidential approval poll numbers should reflect Democratic reactions to his proposed budget.
BTW the last thing I heard about Carville was that he was forming a PAC to support the presidential candidacy of Hillary Clinton in 2016. His remarks make me wonder what is her opinion about Obamacurity.
Autumn
(45,075 posts)Vote republican? They know we won't.
siligut
(12,272 posts)Rethugs are whining about Obama's budget proposal now.
djean111
(14,255 posts)It is starting to become quite clear that "the Left" is not wanted or needed by the Democratic Party.
I am assuming the Democratic Party can and will do very well without the left, as so much scorn and insult is directed at us.
That bullshit about telling folks at least vote for the lesser evil, and then saying well what did you expect? You know Obama is really a DINO? not only isn't logical - it is no way to keep "the left" in the fold, and I can only assume The Left is so miniscule that we won't be needed.
(Obligatory NADER!!!!!PONY!!!!!UNICORN!!!!!!!)
Armstead
(47,803 posts)
JHB
(37,160 posts)Now it seems they can shoot gatling lasers out of their heads.
LeftInTX
(25,311 posts)JHB
(37,160 posts)People (RWers especially) need to be constantly reminded that Capitalism is not one single narrow thing. There are different kinds, and the kind we have now is not the one that encouraged the growth of middle-class prosperity in the very time period they say they want to go back to. Today they sneer at the very same policies as "socialism". If we were "socialists", what were the Soviets? The Union of Soviet evenSocialistier Republics?
There is not enough of a 'left' remaining to be wanted or needed by the Democratic Party in the USA. The USA is not like Europe where the left actually exists and has to be taken seriously.
The Democratic Party is not, and never has been, a leftist party. The Party is a fractious coalition of disparate groups who have problems working together. Will Rogers was right about the Party.
treestar
(82,383 posts)The "left" makes demands and threatens to leave at the drop of a hat. Every time the "left" can find one budget item to exaggerate they post these same things. We are getting tired of it. And yet the left has gotten nothing that can be said to be progress.
dflprincess
(28,075 posts)I think you're right. Though if things go badly in 2014 we know all the true believers will be blaming the left.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)and no one mentioned it.
Last night we had our Strategy/Election committee meeting and no one cared.
I haven't gotten many of the usual hair-on-fire emails demanding money to fight it.
So, in my little part of the world it's a non-issue pumped up for slow news days and Carville is right on.
(As I have repeatedly said-- I am on Social Security, unlike most of the heavy breathers, and have run the numbers and it's really not that big a deal.)
djean111
(14,255 posts)You think either party will stop there? I do not.
Evidently the third rail has been touched with impunity.
But again, either Obama is no Democrat or I am no Democrat, and I feel I need to proceed accordingly.
Plus I don't care if Hillary is a woman; I don't vote with my vagina, and she is just another corporatist.
randome
(34,845 posts)...it's possible CCPI will INCREASE benefits for many.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Go look it up, there are charts laying it out for various income levels and ages, no one gets an increase, some get less of a decrease, but not even the Third Way claims any increases.
Major Findings
The effect of the COLA reductions would be cumulative over time, causing benefit reductions to increase the longer benefits are received. Therefore, certain groups of beneficiaries who tend to receive benefits longer than average would experience larger benefit reductions. These groups include older beneficiaries, women, whites, those with higher levels of education, those with higher income, widow(er)s, and retired disabled individuals. For example, under the half-point option in 2070, those beneficiaries aged 62–69 would experience a 2.9 percent benefit reduction while those aged 80–89 would experience a 10.9 percent benefit reduction compared with scheduled benefits. Under payable benefits, all beneficiaries would experience the same percentage reduction, regardless of how long they received benefits.
Poverty rates would increase under the policy options, but would be largest for the oldest old, blacks, the never married, and those with lower levels of education and income. For example, under the half-point option in 2070, the beneficiary poverty rate more than doubles from 0.5 percent under scheduled benefits to 1.2 percent for those aged 90 or older. Poverty increases would be greater under payable benefits, as this option results in larger benefit reductions compared with scheduled benefits than do the COLA options.
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2008-03.html
randome
(34,845 posts)...of greater prescription coverage. The two changes combined may, in fact, mean a net increase for most.
All I meant was that it's possible and we won't know anything until figures are settled upon.
Which they won't be because I truly doubt this will go any further in the House and Senate.
There are also protections for those who fall under the poverty line.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)there seems to be a trend toward both of them becoming equal, but C-CPI being larger is intriguing.
There was a CPI-E they fooled around with for a while that was specifically for seniors, but no one knows what happened to that.
At any rate, so far it looks like less than 5 bucks a month for most SS recipients, but we don't have any idea what future inflation rates will be, changes in future market baskets, or the effect of 20-30 million new baby boomer recipients making their demands. They might even bring back CPI-E and fake everyone out.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)and I don't really defend this as another one, even though I think it's just a bargaining chip.
I just see it as a distraction for us while we miss the larger picture of how we're being screwed.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)many times over. If Obama saves me another $100 a month in Medicare or some other way, he can cut my SS another $100. People aren't looking at the big picture.
Note -- I'm eligible for SS, but plan to keep working as long as I can.
The poo bahs in DC may well decide that saving you another $100 might not be prudent either...Instead they may decide that another downward adjustment in that particular "entitlement" is ALSO required to beat the Awful Deficit Monster too.
So another IF is that you might get hit twice.....
And this crap will only escalate IF we become complacent and allow them to start chipping away
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)If I get hit unreasonably, I'll join in the bashing. But, I don't think it will happen, and I think the other elements in the budget proposal are much more important than a small cut to some people's COLA (that hasn't even happened yet).
Armstead
(47,803 posts)And whether it helps Obama or not I don't care. The problem is too many of us sit back and "take it" repeatedly. That's how the powerful status quo continue to be the powerful status quo.
"If I get hit unreasonably, I'll join in the bashing."
I guess you and I have different boiling points on this. But I also happen to think it's better to "bash" when something can still be done about it, rather than waiting to close the barn door after the horse is out.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)it did happen to capture my attention and the more I looked at it the angrier I got about it.
Had that not happened I might have just shrugged my shoulders and chalked it up as just another chapter in the overly complicated and useless Kabuki Dance that is going on over "the budget" in DC.
But it does bother me both for the symbolism and the practical effects.
The symbolism is that this is another "brick in the wall" as the Democratic Party continues to move further away from liberalism/economic populism into the hands of their wealthy backers.
Part of it is also a mix of altruism and self-interest...For people who are scrimping while prices in the grocery store go up every week, it is a big deal....And as someone who is nearing "that age" and is going to need it I don't like the fact of being squeezed by the party that is suppsedly theb defenders of SS.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)and it sure does look like there's nobody out there looking out for us. Nobody with the power to do anything.
It bugs me, though, that the widow trying to make it on her $700 SS check isn't really going to be helped by any COLA based on a percentage of her benefit. What will help her are rent subsidies, expanded food stamps, and maybe even a "living wage" floor to the benefit.
But, yeah, actually expanding benefits is off the table for now. Expanding benefits-- what a horrible thought! Fat cats might actually have to pony up some tax money.
Remember the Gray Panthers? Since Maggie Kuhn's death it's been pretty low-key, but methinks maybe it's time to revive it or start another "geezer group" to counter the status quo.
haikugal
(6,476 posts)the Gray Panthers were effective.
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)president or of his policies. This was during the Clinton administration. After that I saw the culture of this so called democratic club was that of a rubber-stamp, and a number of us fled the club shortly thereafter.
By the way, shame on your Democratic Club.
Baitball Blogger
(46,705 posts)been paying as much attention as we have?
randome
(34,845 posts)
Ichingcarpenter
(36,988 posts)Nuf said.
lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)Brilliant.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)"These are not the droids you are looking for."
Carville clearly believes that the reaction to chained CPI is totally overblown. We don't need to put any label on that opinion beyond "informed analysis."
Armstead
(47,803 posts)"Informed analysis" is someone with no axe to grind, and is reporting his or her observations as objectively as possible.
Someone who's role is to "convince Dems what they believe" is a propagandist who selectively shapes the facts to fit what he or she wants people to perceive.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)However, to suggest that he cannot provide an informed analysis is simply wrong. You are suggesting that Carville is capable only of lying and manipulating -- probably because he disagrees with your agenda.
Let me ask you this: do you believe that Paul Krugman is totally objective? I do not. Is he a brilliant economist? Yes. Are his informed analyses worthy of consideration? Absolutely. Does Krugman have a political agenda. Damned straight he does. So, we read Krugman for his opinion in the context of someone who has very strong political leanings.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)It's probably splitting hairs but if Carville's job is to convince Democrats what to think to advance a political faction, that is propaganda.
Someone like Krugman, on the other hand, obviously has a point of view that he applies to his analyses too. And he is trying to convince people.
However, unlike a political hack like Carville, is point of view grows out of his analysis from his expertise. If Jrugman's research convinced him that -- by gosh -- austerity really is a good idea, that is what he would say in his analysis....He has, in fact, changed his positions over the years to reflect changing circumstances. he used to be more like the "centrists" in his views, but he saw what a disaster they were causing and actually had an open mind.
Buffalo Bull
(138 posts)...Not to set nor execute policy but help win elections by way of cheap shot, gratuitous grandstanding or even rallying the troops. Politics is a team sport and the GOP team is loaded with reptiles and cheap shot artists. That makes me 'understand' him.
KharmaTrain
(31,706 posts)...a good example is the recent restoration of the payroll tax. While it was a hot issue among the chattering here very few people paid much attention until they started to see a little less their checks in January. Then the outrage was mostly subdued as people adjusted to the change.
Right now many people are concerned with day-to-day living...not on the political mental masturbation that's going on inside the beltway. If anything I notice a political fatigue out there...witness the lower teevee ratings for news channels...a natural fallout after a noisy political year in 2012. IF any changes to chained CPI are passed then you may hear some real noise but right now it's just rhetoric...not actual money out of people's pockets. Until that happens, then we'll see what type of fall out there is...
Armstead
(47,803 posts)It's sad but truwe that so many things happen on that basis. Sawing away one chip in the foundation at a time, until you suddenly realize the floor is caving in.
(Example, financial deregulation which hastened the rise of "too big to fail" Robber Baron Bank Monopolies which crashed the economy.)
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)James Carville is saying exactly what he's been asked to say by the WH or representatives of the Administration.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Not that I give a damn about what the idiots on the idiot box have to say, anyway.
siligut
(12,272 posts)Carville acts his part with such finesse and this ambiguity was part of it.
Buffalo Bull
(138 posts)The role that he plays is that of a carnivore, and he relishes his role
In the internal dialogue between winning and purity...
Jimmie is defiantly a winner
siligut
(12,272 posts)But you knew that and yes, describing Carville as a carnivore is brilliant and actually what makes him interesting to watch.
Buffalo Bull
(138 posts)Thus an education on shakespeare is welcome.
I am not religeous but I recall Joseph Campbell tell Bill Moyers of a hindu tenant, that in your many life you shall play many roles. Judgment is not in the role that has been cast for you but the elan your acting displays
siligut
(12,272 posts)And that his wife is a fervent rethug indicates to me that his public persona is more of a job. Just like the case where Bill Maher and Ann Coulter are friends.
Visit the Lounge sometime, there is a poster who gives entertaining talks on Shakespeare and his works.
siligut
(12,272 posts)This one is in reference to Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)Barack Obama's fans do not put this issue in the top 100.
There are 5000 more important issues.
Only the very vocal 5% minority (and the ones that tag on) care about this.
Especially as it is a non-issue in that it isn't happening and that the boy who cried wolf syndrome from the same screamers has never materialized the first 10,000 time they tried this since he won the 2008 election.
kentuck
(111,092 posts)Then I have to assume that the entire District of Columbia is in a bubble...
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)You know, the old conventional wisdom about how most people who support responsible gun regulations don't care about it nearly as much as those who will fight them to the death, and therefor the NRA will always get their way..
The funny thing is that on THAT issue, the Democratic establishment (to its credit) rejects the argument, saying times are changing - the public is becoming engaged on gun safety now, new groups are mobilizing to change the equation etc. Democrats like Carville on one hand are saying "we are in this for the long term now". They are saying "we might not come out ahead in this congress, or the next, but there has been a sea change in America and Washington is slow to realize it."
Carville fails to see that there has been a sea change of questions of economic justice. Not only are more Democrats keyed in to this issue today, but even more will be keyed into this issue tomorrow, and then more the year after that. The progressive base of the Democratic Party is fully engaged in this issue now, and our anger will not subside in three months, just like the drive to reform gun laws has not and will not peter out three months after Sandy Hook. Income inequality, the massive shift of wealth from 80% of Americans to the top 1%, is the core progressive issue of this coming decade, at the very least. The ranks of the poor keep growing. We will not be silent, and we will not rest
spanone
(135,831 posts)Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)and often ends up with egg on his face when proven wrong
Liberalynn
(7,549 posts)We are reading from KOS that the President is surprised and bothered that his CCPI proposal is meeting with such strong opposition. We've read that polls show the majority of both Democrats and Republicans constituents are against CCPI. At least a handful of politicians on both sides have come out against it. AARP, The Unions, NOW, MOVE ON, are all urging their members to protest this.
Yet Carville is claiming there is virtually no resistance but from the Hardcore left?
How can both be true? Is there sizeable resistance or not? I'm confused.
I used to like Carville, not anymore.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Liberalynn
(7,549 posts)
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)Didn't you know the AARP is hardcore left?
I guess the large majority of Americans who are against any benefit cuts are hardcore left now. Cool.
Liberalynn
(7,549 posts)
haikugal
(6,476 posts)Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)"Republicans have no hope of making serious inroads into democratic advantages in 2010 or likely 2012 or 2014 and so on. It’s time to call T.O.D., time of death, on the GOP."
Beacool
(30,247 posts)The rest couldn't name the members of the Supreme Court and barely know the name of the vice president (sad, but true).
So he may be right in saying that most Democrats are not bothered by the chained CPI.
just1voice
(1,362 posts)Maybe 90% of U.S. media is owned by 6 corporations?
Maybe those 6 corporations are only presenting the 1%er propaganda?
Maybe one day people will start to understand what propaganda is?
Or, mindless propaganda responders will choose to be emotionally jerked around by design rather than choosing to think rationally about issues that affect their lives.
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)
KG
(28,751 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)Obama is likely bothered somewhat by the negative reaction, but is still hoping that his plan to rope-a-dope the Repubs works, because he knows they'll still do anything to try to obstruct him, including actually truly going against their own policies.....and that many Democrats aren't necessarily all that worried about chained CPI just yet.
