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Who's afraid of Kim Jong-un? - Interesting article IMO
http://www.smh.com.au/world/whos-afraid-of-kim-jongun-20130411-2ho7a.htmlWhile there is a very real possibility that events on the Korean peninsula could spiral out of control, the result, despite the new leader's belligerence, would never be in doubt.
''There are no signs to suggest that Kim Jong-un … is anything but in charge in his own right,'' the ICG concluded. ''North Korea under Kim Jong-un is stable. There is no sign of any opposition to the dynastic succession, and the barriers to change are tremendous.''
Another medium-range ballistic missile test looks like the next provocation. The US, South Korea and Japan are anticipating this. Indeed US officials are suggesting, on the basis of satellite imagery, that a test, perhaps a simultaneous firing of two missiles, is ''imminent''.
Another missile test would no doubt be followed by more international condemnation of North Korea. Pyongyang will expect this and respond with its own belligerent rhetoric. Nothing much will have changed.
North Korea has tested plenty of ballistic missiles before and it will almost certainly do so again.
Derived from 1950s Soviet Scud technology, Pyongyang's missile program has been slowly progressing for three decades. Its handful of longer-range rockets can reach Japan, and even as far as Guam or Alaska. But they are highly vulnerable, inaccurate and by no means reliable.
A successful test might be a boost to North Korea's domestic propaganda machine but it won't do much more than that.
Although there are reportedly no immediate signs of another North Korean nuclear test, that is also a possibility. However, while such an action would also serve the propaganda interests of the regime, it won't change North Korea's international position.
There would again be condemnation from the UN Security Council and most likely more sanctions. However, Pyongyang is already diplomatically and economically isolated. The practical effect could well be to simply reduce North Korea's small nuclear stockpile by one device.
So North Korea may well do something more than another weapons test. But just what that is is difficult to judge. Satellite imagery doesn't necessarily reveal much about the intentions of the secretive regime.
We can at least be reasonably confident that Kim Jong-un isn't going to effectively commit suicide. North Korea's air force is largely armed with antiquated 1960s-era aircraft that wouldn't last long in a confrontation with the US and South Korea. The enormous North Korean army has a great deal of artillery but lacks mobility. Training and equipment are often poor. A major war would be long and bloody, but its result would never be in doubt.
North Korea isn't going to risk extinction by attacking the United States or Japan, or by launching a massive assault across the demilitarised zone into South Korea. The communist leadership in Pyongyang has long shown itself to be calculating and single-mindedly obsessed with its own self-preservation. It doesn't intend to go the way of the former communist regimes of eastern europe and the former Soviet Union or, for that matter, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi.
However, North Korea is well aware it has very few friends. Most importantly long-time ally China has backed away and increasingly regards Pyongyang as not merely a troublesome neighbour but a rogue state.
One of the many revelations from the 2010 WikiLeaks release of leaked US diplomatic cables was the news that China and the US have been sharing secret intelligence on North Korea.
Another medium-range ballistic missile test looks like the next provocation. The US, South Korea and Japan are anticipating this. Indeed US officials are suggesting, on the basis of satellite imagery, that a test, perhaps a simultaneous firing of two missiles, is ''imminent''.
Another missile test would no doubt be followed by more international condemnation of North Korea. Pyongyang will expect this and respond with its own belligerent rhetoric. Nothing much will have changed.
North Korea has tested plenty of ballistic missiles before and it will almost certainly do so again.
Derived from 1950s Soviet Scud technology, Pyongyang's missile program has been slowly progressing for three decades. Its handful of longer-range rockets can reach Japan, and even as far as Guam or Alaska. But they are highly vulnerable, inaccurate and by no means reliable.
A successful test might be a boost to North Korea's domestic propaganda machine but it won't do much more than that.
Although there are reportedly no immediate signs of another North Korean nuclear test, that is also a possibility. However, while such an action would also serve the propaganda interests of the regime, it won't change North Korea's international position.
There would again be condemnation from the UN Security Council and most likely more sanctions. However, Pyongyang is already diplomatically and economically isolated. The practical effect could well be to simply reduce North Korea's small nuclear stockpile by one device.
So North Korea may well do something more than another weapons test. But just what that is is difficult to judge. Satellite imagery doesn't necessarily reveal much about the intentions of the secretive regime.
We can at least be reasonably confident that Kim Jong-un isn't going to effectively commit suicide. North Korea's air force is largely armed with antiquated 1960s-era aircraft that wouldn't last long in a confrontation with the US and South Korea. The enormous North Korean army has a great deal of artillery but lacks mobility. Training and equipment are often poor. A major war would be long and bloody, but its result would never be in doubt.
North Korea isn't going to risk extinction by attacking the United States or Japan, or by launching a massive assault across the demilitarised zone into South Korea. The communist leadership in Pyongyang has long shown itself to be calculating and single-mindedly obsessed with its own self-preservation. It doesn't intend to go the way of the former communist regimes of eastern europe and the former Soviet Union or, for that matter, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi.
However, North Korea is well aware it has very few friends. Most importantly long-time ally China has backed away and increasingly regards Pyongyang as not merely a troublesome neighbour but a rogue state.
One of the many revelations from the 2010 WikiLeaks release of leaked US diplomatic cables was the news that China and the US have been sharing secret intelligence on North Korea.
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