Call for opinions, not facts: How do you think the case heard today by the Supremes will go?

[Stinky The Clown]

I have had a feeling for a while that the court is going to find in favor of same sex marriage in both cases they will hear this week.

Today, it seems, the star was Kagen, who pointed out that Congress, *on the record* voted to establish DOMA as a statement of moral disapproval, a basis the court has already held to be an impermissible reason to pass a law.

So, what is your personal opinion. Not what you want to happen, but what you think will actually happen.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. Sounds like DOMA is going down...

...not sure about prop 8 though. The majority of the court are conservative "states rights" types, so it would make sense that a federal law would fall, while they allow for a state law to stand.

[geek tragedy]

3. Prop 8 could come down to standing.

Judges didn't buy the argument that private citizens had standing to defend the law.

[geek tragedy]

2. 4-1-4 in each case.

Prop 8: Four votes for marriage equality, one vote for lack of standing, 4 votes for homophobia. Result: Prop 8 dead, marriage equality in California.

DOMA: 4 votes to strike down on equal protection grounds, 1 vote to strike down on federalism grounds, 4 votes for homophobia. Result: that section of DOMA is dead.

[Deep13]

4. DOMA goes down in flames. ...

The corporations don't want DOMA so the some of the RW justices will find a reason to shoot it down.

Prop. 8 is either sustained or struck by one vote.

[Gormy Cuss]

5. DOMA's going down, have no clue what they'll finally conclude on Prop. 8

Part of me wants to have a chance to vote on it again because all of the polling shows that marriage equality would win, but a bigger part of me wants them to rule that it's inherently discriminatory to deny marriage to two adults on the basis of gender alone.

[FreeState]

6. My guesses - Prop 8 overturned due to standing, DOMA Sec 3 gone

Prop 8 will be dismissed as there will be no majority, marriage will return to CA next week. If thats not the case, it will be dismissed for standing reasons and marriage will return to CA in June when the ruling on standing is issued (I feel the court may have taken the prop8 case not on the merits of the case but rather to clarify standing issues once and for all.)

DOMA section 3 will be overturned with a split decision, 4 saying heightened scrutiny and two saying for federalist reasons. The remainder will decent saying BLAG had no standing.

[upaloopa]

7. DOMA will be struck down.

[wryter2000]

8. Both Prop H8 and DOMA will be struck down on narrow grounds

No declaration that marriage equality is required by the Constitution. Then, the question will be in forcing non-equal states to respect the marriages from equal states.

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Taking your point a step or three further, your prediction would be great news, I think.

DOMA would be dead. Done. Over with. Finito.

Overturning H8 goes a goodly way to making it difficult for states to impose or maintain a ban on same sex marriage, let alone not recognize legal marriages from other states that the Feds recognize, too. A double win this week all but kills same sex marriage bans. It obviously won't have an immediate impact on the Hater States, but it just becomes a matter of time, don't you think?

[wryter2000]

11. Definitely a matter of time

Let's hope less time rather than more.

[Solly Mack]

10. I think DOMA is done.

[Puzzledtraveller]

12. nowhere

DOMA upheld and Prop 8 no grounds.

[Renaissance Man]

13. The court may not get to the merits on either of these cases ...

Having reviewed the transcript of the oral argument in both of these cases, the court may not even get to the merits, as there were interesting questions regarding standing in both the Proposition 8 and DOMA cases.

There are certain requirements for Article III standing (a question of federal jurisdiction and procedure) to be met for an Article III/federal court to even review a case. One of the interesting exchanges that was had (especially in the DOMA case) was the ability for Congress to stand as an adverse party to ligitation involving legislation that it enacted (which was not defended by the Solicitor General), or essentially, whether BLAG was an adverse party to the litigation to satisfy the "adverseness" requirement of standing for jurisdictional purposes.

If the court grants standing, there is an additional federalism question that Section 3 of DOMA presents (whether the federal government can prescribe a legal definition concerning a matter that's traditionally been reserved to the states -- marriage). The conservatives on the court are likely to strike down DOMA on these grounds.

The liberals or conservatives on the court can potentially strike down DOMA on Equal Protection grounds.

... but that standing question is HUGE, and if the court doesn't seriously think that BLAG had standing to defend DOMA, the SCOTUS can wait and take up another case wherein the adverseness requirement of standing is more clearly met.