General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPrediction: Hagel does not get confirmed
His odds on Intrade have gone from 95 to 87 in a hurry. Not a good sign.
abelenkpe
(9,933 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Although, I think I could make some serious money on Intrade if they allowed US citizens to use that site betting against it.
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think it's worth getting a conversation going - be curious to hear if people think he will get confirmed or not.
Seems like decent fodder for a snowy day.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)No Democrat has come out against him. He has 2 Republicans in his corner, John McCain has also said that he won't filibuster and:
Other Republicans also seemed wary of using the filibuster against Hagel, including Richard Burr, N.C., Susan Collins, Maine, Sen. Roy Blunt, Mo., Pat Roberts, R-Kan. and Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.
http://www.salon.com/2013/02/05/mccain_opposes_chuck_hagel_filibuster/
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Something seems to be up there, no?
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)When Democrats start jumping ship I'll change my tune.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Trending downward often means something.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)I don't know whether he'll be confirmed or not, but I'm sure that if he isn't, it will be a huge story in the media about how the President doesn't have a mandate and is already a helpless lame duck and how the tea party is ascendant.
wandy
(3,539 posts)The only contribution Tepublicans appear able to make in governing this country is OBSTRUCTION!
President Obama is an excellent chess player.
Is it possible that he nominates his second choice first. Lets the Teapublicans rant and rave. Then after they have once again made fools out of themselves, nominates his first choice second?
I know this sounds sneaky and underhanded and not presidential but you have to remember what Obama is dealing with.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Hagel Will Be Confirmed Whenever the Senate Gets Around to Voting on Him
There's some number crunching down in the weeds....
I think that if the GOP stands in his way, it will go poorly for them. No one in Heartland America cares about his speaking fees or his comments about Israel--they just don't. What resonates with them is that:
a. He was an ENLISTED man--and these well-fed elitists are trying to keep the ENLISTED man down!
b. He's a Republican--so the Republicans who don't pay attention will see it as a pissing contest, and perhaps unfair, and the Democrats (the ones who aren't angry because POTUS nominated a Republican) will find their ire raised because "there's just no dealing with those assholes."
It's not a winner for them. They've got to be VERY worried about their Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex connections (and portfolios/bonuses/investment returns) to bump up against this--it has to be about their PERSONAL wealth, because it just makes them look bad when they try to wipe their asses on a war hero. They've got to weigh the pluses and minuses, because it's something that can come back to bite them--the opposition TV ad writes itself. They might find themselves challenged and booted if they push too hard.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Edit to add: Hagel is pretty tough. He has made it so far through the process, under the most unprecedented attacks and scrutiny, and an unfriendly media pushing the "poor performance" narrative and ignoring the massive and bizarre Israel elephant present at his hearing. I doubt he'd give up unless the President asked him to, or his family was threatened, or some truly terrible dirt came to light.
denverbill
(11,489 posts)McCain still hates his guts for voting against him in 2008, but will still allow a vote. Republickers know they won't get away with filibustering all of Obama's nominees this term so they are saving their filibusters for the ones that really matter to their masters. Richard Cordrey, for example. Cordrey will be filibustered. Hagel will be allowed and very narrowly approved.
Response to oberliner (Original post)
KracevayaKoshka Message auto-removed
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)But as for now, it is kind of foolish prediction.