WaPo: Why gun politics are no longer dangerous for Democrats

[marmar]

Why gun politics are no longer dangerous for Democrats
Posted by Greg Sargent on January 15, 2013 at 11:34 am


All signs are that President Obama intends to include an assault weapons ban in the package of gun reforms he’s set to release this week. This provision is widely thought to have little chance of getting through Congress; even Harry Reid has expressed skepticism that it can pass the Senate, and red state Dem Senators are said to be leery of it.

It’s unclear why Dems need to worry about the politics of the ban, however. That’s because new polling shows that opposition to the assault weapons ban is driven almost entirely by non-college males, a constituency the Democratic Party continues to rely upon less and less. Meanwhile, the constituencies that form the pillars of the emerging Democratic coalition — minorities, young Americans and college educated whites, particularly women — support the ban, in some cases overwhelmingly.

This underscores the ways in which gun control politics are changing — and why Dems no longer need to fear the issue.

The new polling comes from the Post/ABC News survey out last night. The toplines show that Americans support an assault weapons ban by 58-39. I asked the Post polling team for a detailed demographic breakdown:

* White non-college men are by far the least supportive, at 43-55.

* Meanwhile, white college educated men support a ban, 57-41. White college educated women are even more supportive, 73-25.

* Nonwhites overall are also very supportive, at 63-33.

* Americans from the ages of 18-39 support a ban, 52-46.

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The complete piece is at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/15/why-gun-politics-are-no-longer-dangerous-for-democrats/

[samsingh]

1. kick

[Victor_c3]

2. Again, republicans are on the wrong side of the changing demographic n/t

[hack89]

3. There are some Democratic Senators that would disagree

Washington (CNN) -- Unlike most issues these days that divide along party lines, the immediate fate of President Obama's new gun proposals will depend not as much on Republicans as his fellow Democrats in the Senate.

Senate Democratic leadership sources tell CNN that passing any new legislation will be extremely difficult because more than a dozen vulnerable Democrats from conservative states will probably resist much of what the president is pushing.

These Democratic sources say the most likely legislation to pass will be strengthening background checks, since it is the least overt form of gun control and it also appeals to gun rights advocates' emphasis on keeping guns away from people with mental health and criminal problems.

Democratic leadership sources say they intend to spend next week -- the first week the Senate is in session -- canvassing red-state Democrats to see what, if anything, is doable. Democratic senators who advocate various gun control measures will be lobbying their colleagues as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/16/politics/senate-democrats-gun-legislation/index.html

[Lurks Often]

4. Greg Sargent isn't the one risking his Congressional seat

Democrats in the Senate and the House, who are in states/districts where gun ownership is common and a driving issue, aren't willing to risk losing their seats by voting for gun control.

[Crepuscular]

5. short memories

Americans have short memories for tragedies. Polling that reflects attitudes today, such a short time after some particularly heinous events means little, it's the attitudes espoused by the electorate in the next election year that are relevant. It's also a little short sighted to just examine how a certain stance will effect your own constituency, there is also the little matter of whether it motivates the base in the opposing party to think about, as well. For example, it may attract 2% of undecideds to the Democratic side but if it also motivates 5% of the Republicans who might normally stay home, to get out and vote, I'm not sure it's a winner from a strategic standpoint.

[WillyT]

6. K & R !!!