Is Growth Over? by Paul Krugman at the NY Times

[applegrove]

Is Growth Over?

By PAUL KRUGMAN at the NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/28/opinion/krugman-is-growth-over.html?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=1&

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If you follow these things, you know that the field of artificial intelligence has for decades been a frustrating underachiever, as it proved incredibly hard for computers to do things every human being finds easy, like understanding ordinary speech or recognizing different objects in a picture. Lately, however, the barriers seem to have fallen — not because we’ve learned to replicate human understanding, but because computers can now yield seemingly intelligent results by searching for patterns in huge databases.

True, speech recognition is still imperfect; according to the software, one irate caller informed me that I was “fall issue yet.” But it’s vastly better than it was just a few years ago, and has already become a seriously useful tool. Object recognition is a bit further behind: it’s still a source of excitement that a computer network fed images from YouTube spontaneously learned to identify cats. But it’s not a large step from there to a host of economically important applications.

So machines may soon be ready to perform many tasks that currently require large amounts of human labor. This will mean rapid productivity growth and, therefore, high overall economic growth.

But — and this is the crucial question — who will benefit from that growth? Unfortunately, it’s all too easy to make the case that most Americans will be left behind, because smart machines will end up devaluing the contribution of workers, including highly skilled workers whose skills suddenly become redundant. The point is that there’s good reason to believe that the conventional wisdom embodied in long-run budget projections — projections that shape almost every aspect of current policy discussion — is all wrong.

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[unblock]

1. "fall issue yet"!!!!

[RKP5637]

2. Granted I took economics a long time ago at the university level as a core requirement and ... I

don't recall all of the details now ... but there were several lectures that one day the notion of a traditional job would become obsolete ... due to increased productivity, automation, increasing population, etc., etc.

I think we might be at the edge of that ... theoretically, if one extrapolates it far enough, just about any job could be replaced by a machine of sorts. Question is, how then would the notion of supply/demand, the carrot and the stick, etc., etc. be modified/replaced.

[applegrove]

4. I read somewhere there will be three tiers on employee markets. America

will not have enough highly skilled people to fill very high skilled jobs like engineer. Their will be a glut of people and not enough jobs in the middle skilled area as computers take over. And there will be a lot of low skilled jobs.

[RKP5637]

5. Political leaders are going to have to set BS aside and really focus to pull this

country through what's ahead. I think most of them lack the skills and character for what's ahead.

[applegrove]

8. Certainly the GOP lacks the skills and character to bring us into the future. The charlatans,

patsies and pawns get power or seats in the US legislatures. None of them could lead anyone anywhere good.

[RKP5637]

10. You know what really in fact frightens me ... that enough of the citizenry is

naive and gullible enough that the GOP gets elected. Now, granted, some of the voters are on the take and want the GOP spoils, but what concerns me are the willfully stupid that have nothing, and no future, that think the GOP is the right solution.

[applegrove]

12. Some of them woke up during Occupy. More may wake up as Boehner tries to lead

the teapartiers. It will be like taking a live fish for a walk on a leash.

[HiPointDem]

6. the only reason there wouldn't be enough skilled people is if the country purposefully didn't train

skilled people.

so i wonder what the agenda was at the source where you read that.

[applegrove]

9. They mean engineers. I think there is already a shortage of such Americans.

[HiPointDem]

11. no there's not. and the only reason there would be, i repeat, is if the country willfully refused

to train them.

when the country needed certain kinds of personnel in the past -- for the war effort, for the expansion of science -- it purposefully trained them, using lots of avenues which made it easy for people to get the necessary training. the gi bill was just one of many. the country & business raised salaries to attract people into the desired fields. every country does the same.

potential engineers are not some rare thing.

if there are not enough skilled people, it is the country's leadership that's to blame.

and there is no shortage of engineers. if there were, salaries would be going up. they're not. the supposed 'shortage' is just a canard in the service of more h1b visas to drive wages down.

[applegrove]

13. I think it was the chinese who looked at the USA economy and said "no thanks. Why

Last edited Sat Dec 29, 2012, 02:30 AM - Edit history (1)

would we take our brightest people, engineers, get them to come up with algorithms for the big banks, to take money out of the middle classes pockets? Why?". The banking industry has sucked a whole host of brilliant people out of building, innovation, research, development and such jobs.

[RKP5637]

14. Bingo!!! Yep!!! " ... the supposed 'shortage' is just a canard in the service of

more h1b visas to drive wages down." I recall well when a CEO where I worked said all of our SW had to be done in other countries, because US citizens did not care and were not educated enough ... and I thought to myself what a line of pure BS that one is ... and then later they outsourced all of the IT service personnel to low paying countries ... it was ALL pure BS to drive US wages down. And, how can one get could wages in the US competing against h1b visa employees in the US. We have corporations now, not countries. The future of the country does not count, the future of the employee does not count. What a fucken mess.

[Hoyt]

3. I've long felt this is our biggest problem going forward.

We will not get back to what is now considered full employment under our current economic structure. There is only so much crap we can buy and things like computers, tablets, etc., greatly reduced need for things we've produced/bought in the past.

Most of us will be forced to downsize and expect less, even if we redistribute almost every penny the wealthy have. This means what we've expected in term of Social Security, Medicare, etc., will come under immense pressure. Politicians can stave off the speed with which this happens, but they must cooperate. We are going to have to face realities too.

Don't see a lot of that happening right now.

This really is a live crab boil.

[RKP5637]

7. Yes, it really is a live crab boil. And the sad part is people will keep

accommodating and accommodating as the downward spiral continues ... and the newly born will not know any different as they grow older. And most politicians behave as children on the playground as these very grave issues grow worse.