Mass shootings are outliers and difficult to make generalizations about

[Recursion]

They are a tiny fraction of homicides, and don't seem to be correlated with the overall murder rate

They are committed by unusual individuals for reasons that are very idiosyncratic

There may be no "strong link" between (legal gun access, violent movies, video games, ASD drugs, access to mental health care) and violence, but there may be direct causal links between a given mass shooting and any of those, or something else we're missing entirely

Because they are so idiosyncratic, it is also difficult to come up with policy responses to prevent them. Would it have been different if he had had to buy the guns on the black market? If he had consumed different media? If he had had access to mental health services? Maybe. The tools we have to study the effectiveness of all those are statistical in nature, and since these events are outliers it's very difficult to apply those conclusions.

The shootings that do "fit" statistically are the much more common cases where one person kills another person he knows with a handgun. That's almost the opposite of a mass shooting, where one person kills multiple people he often doesn't know or only vaguely knows, using handguns and long guns roughly equally.

With the magic of large numbers we can predict what a given policy's effect might be on the 8000 or so non-mass shootings in the US, not perfectly of course, but with pretty good accuracy. There's very little we can do to predict how a given individual who wants to kill a lot of people will act, because for the most part we don't even understand why a very small number of people do that in the first place.

[Loudly]

1. What is public policy toward child pornography? To stamp it out, yes?

Instead, twenty children are slaughtered due to the uncertainty of a policy response to the type of gun which slaughtered them.

[Recursion]

2. Well, currently the FBI is the world's largest distributor of child porn

Through its sting operations.

Instead, twenty children are slaughtered due to the uncertainty of a policy response to the type of gun which slaughtered them.

Maybe it would have been different if he had to get the gun on the black market, or use a different kind of gun. I don't know.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

3. What about their Zombie policy?

Shares United

[Loudly]

6. Mods, a mentally disturbed gun enthusiast is stalking me.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

8. We have troll hunters and we have Zombie hunters

I am far from the only person bringing up your past incarnations

[rl6214]

22. Isn't calling someone "mentally disturbed" a personal attack

[Loudly]

24. Is there a more neutral term you prefer for a stalker?

Or is stalking something other than prima facie mental illness?

Obsessed fan?

Any quibble with the gun enthusiast characterization?

[ellisonz]

4. They all involve easy access to guns.

Damn, that was easy!

[Recursion]

5. Well, not really

The Columbine shooters had to get Harris's girlfriend to make an illegal straw purchase and they had to buy the handguns on the black market. This guy and the Aurora guy had to steal the weapons. But then again Cho was able to buy his handguns despite his mental health history (supposedly Virginia has fixed this problem now). That's why I'm saying it's hard to find single one-size-fits-all explanations here.

[ellisonz]

7. He took them from his mother.

We haven't even heard if they were kept in safes or had trigger locks yet. As to straw purchases and "the black market," presented without further comment: http://www.nyc.gov/html/cjc/html/news/gun.shtml

[Recursion]

9. I think Virginia ended up suing NYPD over that investigation

But, yeah, that's exactly what I'm talking about with the black market. Making something illegal doesn't mean people won't do it.

[ellisonz]

10. So clearly we should give up and just let people run amok?

[Recursion]

11. No, but I don't think pushing those gun sales into the black market will prevent mass shootings

It probably will have some positive impact on "normal" shootings, though. That's what I mean about mass shootings being bad drivers of policy.

[ellisonz]

12. So I should take that as you won't support increased taxes on gun sales for school security?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022017428

[Recursion]

14. Huh? I said I was for that in that thread (nt)

[ellisonz]

17. You wrote:

Star Member Recursion (19,509 posts)
6. I'm always in favor of increasing education spending

Currently the taxes go for environmental conservation, but switching that to education is fine with me.

And I wrote back that I was not suggesting switching where the taxes go, but a new tax i.e. increased taxes.

[Recursion]

18. Oh, sorry, I left it at that because it sounded good to me

I'm onboard

[ellisonz]

19. Thank you for clearing that up.

[rl6214]

23. Safes are always a good idea

Mine are always in a safe unless on my person, trigger locks on the other hand are easily defeated and only work with small children.

[Kurska]

20. Breivik

Incredibly strict gun laws in norway, one of the worst shootings of all time.

[ellisonz]

21. Breivik was a calculating madman...

...but you know where he turned to his cheap magazines for, right?

Norway Terrorist Anders Breivik Purchased High-Capacity Gun Clips From The United States

By Ben Armbruster on Jul 28, 2011 at 3:13 pm

Politico reports today that, according to the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten, Anders Breivik, the right-wing “fundamentalist” charged with the terror attacks in Norway last week, purchased high-capacity gun clips from the United States. Part of Breivik’s attack included a gun assault on a Labour Party youth camp just outside of Oslo:

Anders Behring Breivik wrote in a 1,500-page manifesto that he bought 10 30-round ammunition clips for his .223 caliber rifle from an unnamed small U.S. supplier, which then in turn acquired the clips from other suppliers. Norway forbids the sale of clips for hunting rifles that hold more than three bullets, according to Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten.

Breivik wrote in his manifesto that while he could have purchased the high-capacity magazines in Sweden, they would have been significantly more expensive than ordering them from a U.S. supplier. He wrote that he spent $550 for the 10 clips. He also described legally buying four 30-round clips for a Glock handgun in Norway.

More: http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/07/28/282174/breivik-gun-clips-united-states/?mobile=nc

[CreekDog]

13. 20 1st graders were outliers?

you fail.

on the day of their funerals no less.

wtf.

[Recursion]

15. Umm... yes

Is "outliers" offensive or something? I just mean these murders are very different from the vast majority of murders.

[exboyfil]

16. Put this in some perspective

Edward Charles Allaway used a .22 semiautomatic purchased from K-Mart in 1976 to murder 7 adults and wound 2 adults. So even low caliber long guns are pretty lethal. Allaway was no marksman. He had just bought the weapon. I don't know what model, but the Browning Autoloading Takedown had a 10 round capacity (this is the type of rifle I fired as a kid, and I think my dad bought from K-Mart as well).

A .223 packs alot more punch, but the Browning obviously was a dangerous weapon itself. It would take time to reload thought after the 10 shots are used up. It is reported that Allaway reloaded as he walked room to room.