I follow US politics quite closely. The independents/unbiased opinion regarding the polls is that they are highly

[applegrove]

Post by @sarahbakewell2023

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"I follow US politics quite closely. The independents/unbiased opinion regarding the polls is that they are highly inaccurate.
The best indicators appear to be the mid terms, special elections, state legislature elections etc
All or most of which have voted blue over the last 2 years".

[Metaphorical]

1. Yup

I generally suspect most polls today unless they are demonstrably internal. Anecdotally, what I'm hearing from that front is that the GOP may be in serious trouble come Fall.

[oldmanlynn]

4. It seems like someone is fabricating poll info to swing the vote. Nfm

[calimary]

5. Welcome to DU, oldmanlynn!

Wouldn't surprise me one bit! They'll try anything to influence behavior and decision-making. ANYTHING.

ANYTHING that they think might knock a critical mass of women voters off their game, or lull them to sleep so they aren't on guard. ANYTHING they think they can get away with, it's smart to expect it and to plan and counter-program accordingly. With lots of promotion and advertising.

[Irish_Dem]

7. Yes. I think the same.

[former9thward]

2. Who is this from?

And why should we give it any credibility? Who is sarahbakewell2023? The arbiter of polls?

[ShazzieB]

6. It looks like it's just somebody's personal opinion.

Which means it's worths a much or as little as anyone else's opinion, lol. I think it makes sense, but then that's just my personal opinion!

[FrenchCitizen]

9. Right.

As much as I would love to agree with the OP, random Threads users (or any social media users) are… iffy sources, at best.

[MadameButterfly]

3. I don't think midterms or special elections

tell us anything about the presidential election. People don't always vote on issues. They vote on gut impressions of candidates, often on superficial qualities like charisma or likability, or inaccurate perceptions of strength, aging, business acumen, etc. Local candidates may also have more opportunity to connect to their constituents personally whereas national campaigns depend more on media, and struggle to answer endless false claims from fake news.

i agree that the electorate supports Democratic issues, but that has been true for a long time and hasn't always played out in the presidential election. In this election the issues are bigger than ever, but so is the disconnect on the part of some voters between the issues and the man.

We trust Ms Blakewell's criteria at our peril

[Irish_Dem]

8. Actual voting behavior is more accurate than polls.

Real behavior is way more accurate than people reporting
what they might do hypothetically at some point in the future.

And people are creatures of habit.

They don't vote one way most of the time and then change
drastically for a presidential election. Most people are not that
politically complex or nuanced.

[MadameButterfly]

10. There are voters who voted for REagan

then Clinton then Obama then Trump.

[Irish_Dem]

11. Yes but we are not talking about the majority of voters.

These are the exceptions who are changing their political behavior.

My point is that actual voting is a better measure than polls.

Look at all the special elections and regular elections in the past year.
How are people actually voting.

Not just talking about voting.

[MadameButterfly]

12. The majority of voters have decided who they are voting for

and will stick to one party for a lifetime. The ones that determine elections are the undecideds and independents who change their minds from election to election. Those are the ones I'm talking about. It can be a relatively small number of people, and I hate to say it, they aren't particularly informed or bright. The decision before us is not rocktet science.

The special elections you are talking about involve specific candidates with their own dynamics on top of the issues that we agree should swing our way. Republicans have been picking bad candidates because they have to meet Trump's litmus test. Trump is also a very bad candidate but he seems to be immune to all standards so far. Still waiting for any of his behavior to tank him. That luck doesn't work for the rest of the crazies on the right.

I think these recent elections bode well for a Democratic Senate and House, but I don't think the presidential election will hold to any norms.