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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump cuts into Biden's lead among young people, poll finds
PoliticoBidens margins widen when the pool is restricted to registered and likely voters. But, still, his 19-point lead over Trump among the voters under 30 who are considered likely to turn out is significantly smaller than his 30-point advantage this time four years ago.
Biden holds wide leads among likely voters who are non-white and women up by 43 points and 33 points over Trump, respectively. He trounces Trump among the higher-educated set, leading the presumptive Republican nominee by 47 points among likely voters who are college graduates and 23 points among college students.
But Bidens margins are far slimmer or nonexistent among other key demographics. Hes just 6 percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters who are young men, according to the poll, and just 3 points ahead among white voters. When it comes to young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.
Just_Vote_Dem
(2,820 posts)?
gab13by13
(21,408 posts)I can predict what polls are going to be before they come out.
Just_Vote_Dem
(2,820 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Last edited Fri Apr 19, 2024, 01:30 PM - Edit history (1)
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)Its true. Despite my 45 years of volunteering for Democratic candidates and spending upwards of a half million dollars on Democratic campaigns, what really gives me joy is agitating people on a political blog by posting polling data they dont like.
Can you ever forgive me?
BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)edisdead
(1,957 posts)I will say that.
Prairie Gates
(1,064 posts)brooklynite
(94,739 posts)...the question is how many can Trump/3rd Parties peel away.
Celerity
(43,537 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,657 posts)Rebl2
(13,561 posts)You just cant trust polls. Also it was a Harvard youth poll and would guess it asked more conservative people.
former9thward
(32,082 posts)Polly Hennessey
(6,806 posts)people deserve the future they will have under tRumpianism.
Celerity
(43,537 posts)That number is worrisome as he needs to be at or above 60%.
Hillary Clinton and John Kerry only came in around 55% for the 18-29s, and they lost.
Also, despite some bad faith denialists' attempts to claim otherwise (including one directly calling me a liar, ffs), there most certainly IS a large gender gap with young voters (and this is far from the only poll that shows it, most all of them do):
Finally, my worry about the younger parts of Gen Z trending less and less Dem compared to the very oldest Gen Zers and the last years of the youngest Millennials looks to be possibly getting worse and is for sure if this poll is accurate):
I first really noticed this trend in 2022, when youngest part part of the Zillennial (Zillennials are those born 1992/3 to 1998, I was born late 1996) cohort plus a tiny 10 month sliver of the very oldest Gen Zers voted Democratic around 7 points net HIGHER than did the vast part of Gen Z (all but the oldest 10 months of it):
That 7 point net gap has now almost doubled, IF this poll is accurate. I have warned for years that Gen Z will likely NOT be a linear progression in terms of liberal/progressive voting patterns, especially in regards to partisan Democratic Party allegiance.
I know thousands of them, hell, if I had been born 2 and half months later I would BE ONE. This board, on balance, doesn't deeply understand them. Hell, the board doesn't deeply understand us younger Millennials all that well. There also are far too many deep currents of hostility towards us younger folk in general here, currents from a minority, smaller group, but a group that is very vocal and persistent.
IF Biden loses and if it can be shown 40yos and under underperformed (funny thing that.... some of the worst youth baiters here come from self-identified age, gender, and racial cohorts who are massively pro MAGAt, but either never comment on that fact or get argy bargy of you bring it up with them) it is going to be hell here for us. I am definitely not go to stick around if I am used as a proxy target for my age cohort.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)I have a later-in-life stepson who is Gen Z. He's a sample size of one, but still.
He knows virtually nothing. Period. He doesn't read or watch news. He literally didn't know that the bridge collapsed, etc. He has no idea that Trump is on trial or for what. He didn't do much work in high school so he's read very little history or literature. No way could he pass a basic citizenship test. His high school years were disrupted by COVID in profound ways. He aspires to have a technical job and sees no value in art, history, literature, travel (other than trips to amusement parks, skiing, other commercial, canned experiences.)
He has no idea what "research" is, no clue about the rigor required. To him, research is scanning google results and seeking confirmation bias.
Via TikTok, YouTube, and his gaming sites he is aware of the Israeli-Hamas conflict and has been told that Israel is at fault. He's vaguely annoyed with Biden but can't articulate why.
He's a Democrat because that's how he was raised. Literally, he is told to be a Democrat. He votes straight party Democratic ticket. Unless something changes drastically, he's likely to continue.
Multiple him by millions, at least half of whom are raised in Republican households. Of the half raised by Democrats, some are disaffected tankies who hope for a Glorious Revolution. Since many of those Zoomers aren't going to bother finding out much on their own, they are going to vote based on how their parents and online influences tell them to vote.
Yes, we have a big problem.
Polybius
(15,488 posts)From the very first sentence:
Omnipresent
(5,722 posts)That will give Biden at least a 5 point lead in the polls.
gab13by13
(21,408 posts)that President Biden will win by an overwhelming margin, in a fair election. This election isn't going to be fair so that is why we must overwhelm them at the ballot box.
I just double checked to make sure my Pa. absentee ballot was received. If I made a mistake on the ballot it will get tossed this year.
hlthe2b
(102,378 posts)Not Biden continues to lead Trump in youth vote, but margins diminished... Or anything that might reflect the truth while not making TRUMP the lede. Oh, yeah, Politico.
Not biased at all... Keep telling me that.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)Everyone else here knows.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)And apparently aren't as insightful as you are at seeing "subliminal;" messaging?
hlthe2b
(102,378 posts)Here, I'll even help you pull out of the sand... I'll even teach you what "subliminal" means.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)hlthe2b
(102,378 posts)brooklynite
(94,739 posts)hlthe2b
(102,378 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Last edited Fri Apr 19, 2024, 02:58 PM - Edit history (2)
These friendships are entirely transactional. If there was no money they would not exist.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)"Politics is one of those endeavors where everyone thinks they are qualified to have an opinion. And the people successful enough to write checks big enough to attend these events are not the sort of people who experience self-doubt. ... Eventually, as I stood in a corner hoping the server with the pigs in a blanket would come by, someone would invariably wander over to me and ask, 'Are you on the White House staff?' 'I am.' 'What do you do?' 'I'm President Obama's communications director.' 'Oh good. I was hoping to run into you. I have some thoughts.' And we're off to the races.
"The subtext of most of these conversations was that great slogans make great presidents. Much of Progressive Twitter is filled with lamentations about some failure or missed messaging opportunity. There was a running joke in the Obama White House that you needed a master's in economic policy to discuss economic policy and a doctorate in public health to offer health care ideas, but everyone believed that reading the newspapers made them qualified to opine on messaging strategy."
BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)won nothing...not even the midterm...the red wave (which I think you thought was coming) turned into the red fizzle...Roe Roe your vote. Many have failed to consider women and as Biden has warned, we are Trump's worst nightmare especially younger women. None of the polls reflect Roe, they should.
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,617 posts)DFW
(54,444 posts)The people susceptible to the lure of carrying signs screaming "Genocide Joe" will either not vote, or else they will ultimately vote Biden if they care about the ones they claim to care about. The ones who might vote Trump or Bobby, Jr. are not the ones carrying those signs. I suspect they are the ones who paid for them.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,657 posts)brooklynite
(94,739 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,657 posts)No mention of the smaller sample size or higher MOE for registered or likely voters, except to note that there 1,051 likely voters, about half the total sample. No specific numbers on gender, although a proportional representation would imply about 500 each of male and female respondents, with yet an even higher MOE for each gender group. Note that likely voters are typically identified by voting history, so the millions of voters who turned 18 since 2020 or 2022 would be excluded from this sample.
Results among all likely voters between 18-29 shows support for Biden at 56%, Trump 37%, undecided 5%. By comparison, the same poll claims support at the same point in 2020 was split 60% Biden, 30% Trump (with an implied 10% other/undecided).
Without transparency on subgroup MOE, it is hard to have much confidence in this individual poll; if the results are taken as part of the identified trends in dozens of recent polls, perhaps it is safe to conclude the following:
Biden still has significant support among young voters
There is an identifiable risk that third party candidates could peel off enough votes to give Trump an Electoral College victory.
Thats about it.
Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)even mentioned. I would fail if I turned something like this into a statistics class.
PennRalphie
(125 posts)Will go for Biden by an enormous margin. Reproductive rights, eliminating student loans and the overall great economy we have here will be enough. Then, we have a fantastic Governor, who will run for President one day. Shapiro will be a great surrogate for Biden here. I really do believe Biden will win PA by a huge margin.
Polls this early are for amusement only.
DemocratInPa
(355 posts)Israel/Gaza weren't happening in 2020, and TikTok ban will hurt..
Penn State has a lot of kids who use TikTok, in fact we went to an alumni event last year and they said it was the #1 platform on campus, followed by Instagram.
PennRalphie
(125 posts)But reproductive rights will be more important than all of that. Plus student loans forgiven and the great economy.
Cha
(297,693 posts)Depressing of the Vote for Pres Biden.
Cha
(297,693 posts)anyone Depressing the Vote.
We Need All Hands on Deck.. got it.
The Kids Will Go For Pres Biden!! do they want Fucking trump for.
Pretty Fly
(66 posts)What a very unusual framing to compare this to what I assume is a poll from 2020 and not the actual results.
In 2020, Biden won the under 30 vote 60-36 according to exit polls.
Now I'm not great at math, and maybe the poster who posted this article can correct me, but 60 minus 36 is 24. And again, I know my math can be iffy sometimes but I'm pretty sure 24 is decently less than 30.
In fact, 19 is closer to 24 than 30.
So, Biden, according to this poll, which has a MOE I assume, is only doing five-points worse in the margins than four yeara ago.
That's a big difference than the way the poll is presented in the link.
Almost an agenda-driving difference.
Hm.
Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)existing belief...This poll is two weeks old...you have to dig to find that interesting fact. After looking a Steve Shepard (author) tweets, he leans right and was quite complimentary RFK...hmmm
muriel_volestrangler
(101,367 posts)Yes, the 30 point lead was in their 2020 poll - "this time four years ago". But if that ended up as a 24 point lead in the election, then a 19 point lead now looks even worse.
So the thing to do is remind young people (and everyone else) what a piece of scum Trump is. Rapist, authoritarian who has taken away women's rights, traitor, racist, conman ... there's a lot to say to people about him.
Pretty Fly
(66 posts)It's still just a poll with a MOE and that alone means that it doesn't show much of anything.
The whole article reads like it's a readout from the Trump campaign.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,367 posts)Pretty Fly
(66 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)brooklynite
(94,739 posts)Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)no details at all.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)brooklynite
(94,739 posts)...snip...
The Spring 2024 Harvard Youth Poll surveyed 2,010 young Americans between 18- and 29 years old nationwide, and was conducted between March 14-21, 2024.
"Young people today have clear concerns about where our country is headed," said IOP Director Setti Warren. "From worries about the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and climate, young people across the country are paying attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard at the ballot box this November."
...snip...
If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024
As the POLITICO article points out, Biden had a larger margin among young voters at this time in 2020.
Celerity
(43,537 posts)Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)""
More men than women...
"
Twice as many GOP as Dems, the exact same number of independents as Dems. Not a good sample. Equal numbers of registered and likely voters. It is bullshit.
Did you read the method...more
'This poll of 2,010 18-to-29-year-olds was organized with undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP) and supervised by John Della Volpe, Director of Polling. Data were collected by Ipsos Public Affairs using the KnowledgePanel. KnowledgePanel provides probability-based samples with an "organic" representation of the study population for measurement of public opinions, attitudes, and behaviors. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish between March 14 and 21, 2024. The target population for this survey is U.S. residents between the ages of 18 and 29. Data are weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.02%.'
muriel_volestrangler
(101,367 posts)which was "do you agree with 'woman are too promiscuous these days'?"
So it's saying that in the age group, 28% of men agreed, 21% of women strongly or somewhat agreed (not in your screenshot, but just above, the overall figure is 24%), 23% of current college students agreed, and so on. So 46% of those who identify as Republicans agreed with it, 14% of Democrats, and 23% of independents.
If you want to see the total numbers of how they identify politically, look at the topline poll (link top left at the other link).
https://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/240415_Harvard_IOP_Spring_2024_Topline_Final.pdf
Of the whole age group:
q.7:
19% strong Democrat
19% Not a very strong Democrat
10% independent leans Democrat
22% independent does not lean to either part
6% independent leans Republican
11% Not a very strong Republican
12% Strong Republican
q.3: 75% are registered to vote (and 4% don't know if they are)
q.10:
53% definitely will be voting for president in 2024
13% probably will
13% say it's 50-50 if they will
10% probably won't
11% definitely won't
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)LenaBaby61
(6,977 posts)former9thward
(32,082 posts)National polls shoot for 1100 to 1400.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)yesterday. I think you are mistaken...got a link. I have not seen one.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)You realize that the poll DOESN'T say Biden will lose the youth vote or even won't get a large share, right? The issue is: is there any erosion and how does that impact States where our margin is likely to be small?
nb: if you bothered to actually read the poll (I provided the link) it goes into great detail about many political aspects of young voters, not just their Presidential choice. He was speaking about how the Israel/Gaza war influences their decisions.
BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Ive got an event this weekend. Also, does Simon think the Mets could be for real this year?
betsuni
(25,638 posts)Better stick with potatoes. One of the best things I've ever tasted was potato and blue cheese croquettes.
BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Emile
(22,937 posts)Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,367 posts)You know, the idea is to encourage everyone to vote for Biden, and other Democrats. When that job is incomplete, it's worth knowing if there's a persuadable demographic. You might be wasting your breath trying to convince a 50 year old white male evangelical to think about what a bastard Trump is, but if there's a demographic drifting away from Dems because the media is not doing a good enough job of reminding the world that Trump is a rapist (and conman, traitor etc.), then Dems have to give them reasons to reject Trump and his cult.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
Emile This message was self-deleted by its author.
Chakaconcarne
(2,462 posts)Doodley
(9,130 posts)has done.
Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)It was merely used (bits and pieces) to support the premise of the article.
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,965 posts)I mean, pick your side.
Doodley
(9,130 posts)RainCaster
(10,920 posts)I'm not believing this bs for a second.
Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)then the data is 'massage' IE adjusted to prove their already held opinion. I looked at the internals of all the polls used for the article. One of them was a Fox poll. They were all bullshit. The infamous Sienna Poll was one of them.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)nonsensical crap with questionable samples. And of course the usual 'fixing' to get the desired result. Oh I am sure that many youngsters have landlines. The article was also based on the bullshit Sienna poll are well. Perhaps you might want to investigate the sources used for his article.
'This survey of 1,305 adults was conducted March 25th through March 28th, 2024 by the Marist Poll
sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the
United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or
online. The sampling frames include RDD plus listed landline, RDD cell phone sample plus cell phone
sample based on billing address to account for inward and outward mobility, and aggregated online
research panels. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish. Phone and online samples were
selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its adult population. The samples
were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2022 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for
age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points.
There are 1,199 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.7
percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups to only display crosstabs with an acceptable
sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does
not mean interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too
small to report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.'
It gets worse upon more examination.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)ColinC
(8,334 posts)Playingmantis
(141 posts)I had a relative who was a trader on the stock exchange. Once he told me that everyday he gets "research" about stocks and he could find research to support whatever it was he wanted to believe. In the end, he said, I could ask my five year old son, "What's the market going to do today? Up or down?" and the kid had a 50% chance of being right.
It's the same with polls.. there are polls that will support whatever someone wants to believe...
I have seen pols talking about how the Hispanics are deserting Biden. how Blacks are leaving, how workers hate him , how old folks cant stand him and now how young people are walking away..
It's a wonder he has any support at all!!
What the Latin phrase for "grain of salt?"
Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)Simon Rosenberg thinks we win...he has a podcast I listen to. Using his name is somewhat misleading Send a link please...
8 pts - Marquette
7 pts - Echelon
6 pts - Morning Consult
4 pts - NYT/Siena, HarrisX/Forbes, Redfield and Wilton
3 pts - Big Village
2 pts - Ipsos/Reuters
There is a podcast that everyone should listen to at the link. You can get a free membership.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/why-im-optimistic-well-win-this-year
-misanthroptimist
(821 posts)Polls are absolutely useless at this point. This year that's especially true.
MorbidButterflyTat
(1,855 posts)From the link:
"And though there are fewer of them, Trumps younger voters are far more enthusiastic about the former president than their peers who are backing Biden, according to the poll."
Hm. I wonder how they measured "enthusiasm," especially by "far more." Jumping up and down? Waving their arms? Firing off guns? While Prez Biden supporters just gave a feeble hat tip?
What a load.
The pic of Prez Biden looking sad because his poll numbers from 4 years ago show him slipping is especially effective.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)Cha
(297,693 posts)Last edited Fri Apr 19, 2024, 06:06 PM - Edit history (1)
on DU is so welcoming as you may have noticed.
brooklynite
(94,739 posts)...and based on my personal discussions with Biden's campaign manager, they're not afraid to either.
The Biden campaign has consistently said that the election will be close. Therefore, any potential erosion (even a small one) of base votes calls for evaluation.
BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)Watching the plebs in a state of agitation when you have no real skin in the game is a form of entertainment.
SocialDemocrat61
(640 posts)Why come here just to make snarky comments that belittle fellow members?
BannonsLiver
(16,463 posts)WarGamer
(12,484 posts)Please let me know when a happy poll is released.
Demsrule86
(68,691 posts)yardwork
(61,712 posts)This paragraph is framed as a negative change for Biden, but it actually is nothing new and might even be good news. Trump won each of these demographics last time:
But Bidens margins are far slimmer or nonexistent among other key demographics. Hes just 6 percentage points ahead of Trump among likely voters who are young men, according to the poll, and just 3 points ahead among white voters. When it comes to young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.
gulliver
(13,197 posts)For instance, in this article, they attribute a quote about youth voter intentions to "John Della Volpe, polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on polling young voters, said in a statement."
That is, the article author is vouching for the expertise of John Della Volpe on polling young voters. But what made the article author an expert on deciding who is an expert?
That's a common problem with journalism now. It's arrogance at best.