Online conspiracy circles galvanize to proclaim Baltimore bridge collapse a 'black swan event'

[Nevilledog]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/27/baltimore-bridge-collapse-conspiracy-theories

No paywall link
https://archive.li/I3aTK

Far-right commentators have declared Tuesday’s dramatic collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge a “black swan event”, a niche phrase that has recently captured the imaginations of “deep state” conspiracy theorists.

“Nothing is safe,” wrote manosphere influencer Andrew Tate on X, about six hours after a container ship collided with the bridge. “Black Swan Event imminent.”

“This is a BLACK SWAN event,” asserted Gen Mike Flynn, Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, on X. Others, including Benny Johnson, Laura Loomer and some verified QAnon-affiliated accounts, also latched on to the “black swan event” language, many claiming that the collapse was terrorism related.

“Looks deliberate to me. A cyber-attack is probable. WW3 has already started,” wrote Infowars’ Alex Jones on X. Officials do not believe the said that the crash was terrorism-related or intentional; some theorized that the ship “lost propulsion”, causing it to veer off course.

As search and rescue teams continued looking for victims on Tuesday morning, “black swan event” trended on X, and Flynn appeared on Infowars to elaborate on his black swan theory.

*snip*

[Ocelot II]

1. Were all the other bridge collapses that have happened from time to time

also black swan events that were precursors to WW3 or alien invasions or whatever? There have been very, very many. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bridge_failures#2000%E2%80%93present. Why is this one different?

[ck4829]

2. Oh God, they found a way to incorporate "black" in their weird ramblings, to make it EXTRA SCARY to their base

[Ocelot II]

3. A black swan event is simply an unexpected occurrence.

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist, until they were discovered in Australia in 1697, and it then became reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

A ship hitting a bridge and causing it to collapse is hardly that; it's happened often, which is why there are barriers alongside bridges to prevent it. The ones by the Key bridge weren't adequate, but the possibility was foreseen because it's not especially unusual.

[ck4829]

5. Oh, I saw that too

But they get to combine their crazy with "BLACK", there's no way that's not a part of it

[Mz Pip]

4. Other that it's nonsense

it’s not how terrorists operate. Terrorists go for the maximum amount of casualties. They don’t do something like this in the middle of the night.

[Ocelot II]

6. A highway bridge in Minnesota collapsed during the evening rush hour in 2007.

13 people died and many others were injured. But even that wasn't attributed to terrorism, even though it occurred while the Iraq debacle was in full swing. People on the internet are crazier now.

[Mz Pip]

16. Everything is a conspiracy

to the Q nuts these days.

[Voltaire2]

7. They got one part right.

It was an improbable event. It does not however appear to likely to have major consequences, to be some sort of catalyst that changes history.

[Brother Buzz]

14. It may not be the 'catalyst' but it certainly has some major consequences

I read an article from a reputable source the addressed the impact on the supply chain. There is going to be a lot of short term disruption until it's sorted out. It may even translate to a small tick in inflation with additional transportation cost.

It's not gonna be a "Black Swan Event", but the impact will be a pain in the ass on many fronts.

[Darwins_Retriever]

8. Come on, to be a black swan or anything resembling an attack

the ship needed to hit the bridge during rush hour. Then you would have hundreds of deaths/missing persons.

[yardwork]

9. Is it wrong to just laugh out loud?

[usonian]

10. Other bridges have concrete barriers in front of and in back of piers.

This was an accident waiting to happen.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Lara "looney" Logan, having another moment in magaloon circles

WAS IT AN “ACCIDENT?” Lara Logan Intel Sources Claim Baltimore Bridge Collapse On “Second busiest strategic roadway for hazardous materials” Was “absolutely brilliant strategic attack”
thegatewaypundit.com ^ | Mar. 26, 2024 | Patty McMurray

Independent journalist Lara Logan’s report on the “accident” is very different from the reports in the mainstream media.

Here’s what Logan had to say about the cargo ship’s “accident” with the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore:

Multiple intel sources: The Baltimore bridge collapse was an “absolutely brilliant strategic attack” on US critical infrastructure – most likely cyber – & our intel agencies know it. In information warfare terms, they just divided the US along the Mason-Dixon line, exactly like the Civil War.

The second busiest strategic roadway in the nation for hazardous material is now down for 4-5 years – which is how long they say it will take to recover. Bridge was built specifically to move hazardous material – fuel, diesel, propane gas, nitrogen, highly flammable materials, chemicals, and oversized cargo that cannot fit in the tunnels – that supply chain now crippled.

Make no mistake: this was an extraordinary attack in terms of planning, timing & execution.

[...] “They have figured out how to bring us down. As long as you stay away from the teeth of the US military, you can pick the US apart.

[Kablooie]

12. It was obviously caused by a deliberate computer hack

by poor Guatemalan refugees.

[points]

13. Conspiracists make my teeth ache

The real conspiracy is brain poisoning of a bunch of fringy weirdos that is contagious, and spreads more easily in the world of the internet than before.
Previous conspiracies also existed before the internet, spread through books, pamphlets, radio, etc.
- Illuminati and New World Order
- JFK Assassination Theories
- Roswell UFO Incident
- Moon Landing Hoax
- Bermuda Triangle
- Fluoridation of Water
etc etc etc etc

The thing about any of these is they *might* be true, so calling them bunk outright opens you up to "told you so" situations if you're actually wrong.

Unfortunately the best approach is the "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" lens, which is more subtle than those infected with brain poison are able to navigate. But, demanding evidence is a fine approach.

Laughing at them works, too.

Amplifying these probably is not the best approach. Perhaps itemizing the evidence for and against and asking believers to agree or elaborate your lists might be a successful approach.

Asking people "How do you know? What evidence tipped you into really being convinced?" might get them into an epistimological frame of mind where they can examine themselves, but maybe not.

People who trust their gut 100% and don't need further proof. Well, those are lost souls.

[Aussie105]

15. Paranoid people will say paranoid things.

Insane people will say insane things.

Their logic in coming up with strange theories needs not be examined.
But their motivation to do so, certainly does.