I don't think tsf will be the nominee

[redqueen]

Fox news hosts started fact checking him. Daily fail and the Washington examiner are publishing the story about his fake ai pics with Black people.

More than anything, the loss of DC by such a huge margin, to me, is a sign that he's done. I don't know if they'll oust him at the convention or just stop covering for his cognitive decline or what, but I would bet money I don't have that he won't be the nominee

We need to focus on Republican policies and project 2025 and stop talking about tsf

[Sympthsical]

1. I don't disagree

Maybe it's why I don't spend a lot of time thinking about polls and things right now. I've said many times before, I'm honestly not sure who the nominees will be come November. It's just not a given at this point. We can say, "Here are the likely nominees," but in this cycle in particular, it feels very unsettled.

There are a lot of people on the hard Right - the conservatives who are not mishmash personality populists - who do not like Trump. At all. They just couldn't coalesce around anyone, and DeSantis turned out to be turrible on the national stage. (And hard Right conservatives do not like Haley).

So now they're staring at this. Do they undermine him? Trump has his Trump Rump - the people who are behind him no matter what. And that's enough to win a primary. But I think a lot of Republicans are watching all this and wondering what they can do.

The problem, of course, is they've been so limp and spineless in dealing with him so far - if not opportunistically sycophantic to avoid the Wrath of the Rump - that there's no reason to have faith they will do anything meaningful. Their only role, if any, feels like it would be to give him that last Bugs Bunny poke to send him off the cliff when he's already teetering.

[FBaggins]

2. Because he lost DC?

There's hardly a republican in the country (including those who live in DC) that cares about the DC primary.

It's far too late for the tide to turn against him. TFG will win every super tuesday state tonight (likely by large margins) and will clinch the nomination a week from now. There is no mechanism for him to be "ousted at the convention" unless he suddenly discovers humility and backs out on his own.

[redqueen]

15. Brokered conventions happen

With tsf imploding I can definitely see it happening. I hope it doesn't

[getagrip_already]

29. He changed the rules for this convention...

Well, technically the rnc changed the rules, but it's gonna take a 2/3 vote of the rnc to choose a different candidate.

So no brokered convention likely since the rnc is stuffed full of trump family and friends.

[FBaggins]

38. They happen when someone doesn't have a majority of delegates

He’ll have a majority in a week

[redqueen]

44. It's not that cut and dry

Each state gets to make up their own rules. It's possible there aren't enough states with the ability to throw a ringer - but with the way the Republican party plays fast and loose with rules I wouldn't put anything past them - definitely wouldn't be surprised if they decide they don't like their chances with tsf and do whatever it takes to change that

[FBaggins]

48. It is in every way that matters for this conversation

Yes - states have options in how their delegates are assigned. But that flexibility ended some time ago. The delegates that are awarded tonight are “bound” to Trump for the first ballot at the convention. And he will have enough to lock in the win in the next week or so.

[Scrivener7]

3. I hope you're right, though I won't believe it until it happens. And I disagree that we need to stop talking about tsf.

If you are right and his control and support are slipping, we need to point that out more than ever until that bird is in our hands and he is gone.

It can be done at the same time as a focus on republiQan policies. We can do both.

[redqueen]

17. Good point

However it seems like rw media has already started turning on him. If that reversed course then yes we definitely need to continue but if they start doing the heavy lifting there's no point doing double work, best to start attacking Haley and Project 2025

[PatSeg]

30. I agree

I'm not going to make any assumptions until I am absolutely sure that he does not get elected president again. I suppose none of us will ever get over that feeling from 2016 when we heard him announced the winner. To this day, it still feels like a bizarre dream.

As long as the possibility still exists, I cannot relax. Meanwhile, yes we should still focus on republican's horrendous policies.

[no_hypocrisy]

4. Respectfully beg to differ.

TSF will be the nominee but his election in November is highly questionable.

His base overlooks his dementia. Some of them think he's doing just great.

But a lot of Republicans won't hold their collective noses and vote for him in November. They don't fear "retribution" b/c they'll make sure that Trump won't be in a position of power again. They'll wait another four years and try again.

[sop]

9. "TSF will be the nominee but his election in November is highly questionable."

Republican primary voters show no sign of wanting to dump Trump. And I really hope sanity prevails in November, but you never know.

[PortTack]

57. Yup..such a stark difference in the media reporting...after the last 4 primaries the story was tfg wins primaries

But can’t win in the general.

Now this

[INdemo]

26. Plus he is out of campaign funds

Mostly all of his campaign funding is being used for legal bills

[no_hypocrisy]

28. And his small-time donors are tapped out. His big-time donors only bet on a sure thing.

And he ain't that.

[doc03]

5. Trump lost DC? How many people voted in DC? The only way Trump isn't the nominee

is if he is dead or has a massive stroke in the next few months.

[yagotme]

7. IIRC, only a few thousand voted in the Rethug primary. nt

[getagrip_already]

31. Fewer than 10k

Not a lot.

[rubbersole]

64. I was hoping it would be a loaded diaper wardrobe malfunction on live TV.

Just so we can tell our grandchildren we were watching when it happened. 💩💥 😅

[TwilightZone]

6. Only 2,000 people voted in DC.

The result is meaningless in the big picture. No one cared enough to even show up. I think that says that voters think the race is over more than that it's any kind of reflection on Trump.

Trump lost 15 primaries in 2016 and ended up with less than half of the total overall vote, even though it was pretty much known after Super Tuesday that he was going to waltz to the nomination. All of the same things were said then, and it clearly didn't matter. People are putting way too much emphasis on individual races and missing the big picture. The GOP race was over before it even started.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. I think his lock on the R apparatus is so complete he will be the nominee

And that the GOP will very much regret it as events unfold between his nomination and the November election.

The convention is Aug 19-22. That's 78 days to Nov. 5, a total of 11 weeks, almost 3 months. It is less than 170 days to the convention.

So maybe ... 80 days to him clinching the nomination, 80 days to convention during which doubts grow, and 80 days to the election for regret.

I expect the convention will either be a coronation or a party splitting catastrophe (for Rs). I think a coronation is more likely. With tRump's daughter in law on the controlling committee, expect the convention to be very controlled in favour of maga.

[ancianita]

45. Are you counting between the RNC and Nov 5?

The RNC is Mon, Jul 15, 2024 – Thu, Jul 18, 2024, which is roughly 30 days between party conventions.
It is scheduled to be held July 15 to 18, 2024, at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_National_Convention#:~:text=It%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be,Fiserv%20Forum%20in%20Milwaukee%2C%20Wisconsin.

Unless you're thinking Mon, Aug 19, 2024 – Thu, Aug 22, 2024 is the Democratic National Convention in Chicago?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_National_Convention

Sorry, I don't understand how you're using the numbers.
By my count, if you're talking about Trump and the rethug regret zone, it's 110 days, 110 days or 15 weeks & 5 days or 3 months & 18 days

I'd like to think their regret is beginning now, and lasts a lot longer, and makes them so broke they never think of the criminal again.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

46. You are right. I misread a blurb and mixed the dates

The July date makes it worse for Republicans. They lock in their nominee earlier and have more time to regret it and flail about in disarray.

[ancianita]

47. You're still right about the regret!

[Pototan]

10. What does tsf stand for?

I know TFG means the former guy. I'm familiar with a lot of other nicknames for the nazi cult figure who was number 45. But tsf escapes me.

[Emile]

12. The Stinky Fart ?

[Zambero]

13. That Stupid F*ck?

[TSExile]

18. Close. It's The Sick F***

President Biden was overheard calling T**** that.

[Blues Heron]

19. the sick fuck

[redqueen]

20. The sick fuck is how I read it.

[MistakenLamb]

11. He will be

He is a white no college turnout machine for the party he will be the nominee because MAGA doesn’t care about truth or facts

[mopinko]

14. i'll b swallowing hard and watching korncki tonight.

rly dyin to see the results today.

[markodochartaigh]

16. I definitely agree

that we should focus on policies, not personalities. I think that a big part of the reason that we are where we are is because we allow ourselves to be more informed about superficial personality characteristics (which candidate would you want to have a beer with) rather than policies (do we want to allow defunding of public schools). Of course Trump is an outlier because he is so incredibly compromised in so many ways that he presents his own policy issues (do we allow the president to sell state secrets).
I think that our oiligarchs and their mainstream media want very much to keep us focused on the shiny object of attractive politicians while they pick our pockets.
I do think that Trump will be the nominee though, even if they have to keep him in seclusion and use AI for his speeches.
On the other hand I'm very sad to say that almost any other Republican candidate could probably beat President Biden. I view this as an absolute failure of an electorate which views ignorance and apathy as virtues.

[redqueen]

21. I agree, very strongly agree, with everything you just said

except the part about his nomination being a lock. I hope he is, for obvious reasons.

[PortTack]

60. Any other republican candidate would beat president Biden, I strongly disagree

Roe v Wade, IVF and the continued assault on woman and minorities

The young voter who is not going to vote for any gqp

And, if tfg isn’t the nominee, the maga cult isn’t going to vote

[marble falls]

22. It'll be Romney/Haley in a stunning loss to Biden/Harris.

[redqueen]

23. Thanks!

I like the way you think. Very encouraging

[DownriverDem]

36. What?

The majority of women, enlighten men & GenZs will never vote for repubs. They vote the issues & the MAGAs are totally on the wrong side.

[wiggs]

24. The only way he's not the nominee is if he makes a deal to endorse a different candidate in

exchange for pardons. Which he may do if it's clear he will lose in november. He must either win the general or get pardons from someone else to avoid jail. And 1) his disordered brain couldn't handle another loss to Biden 2) he can't abide the thought of jail, and would be caught crawling out the bathroom window to escape, screaming about the deep state...thinking of William Macy at the end of Fargo.

He will avoid these things at all costs. All. Costs.

[FakeNoose]

54. This makes a lot of sense ... the hard part is convincing Chump

... that he has zero chance to win.

I believe the numbers favor Biden NOW, and they will continue to favor him overwhelmingly into November. Will Chump ever see those numbers? Will he understand the ramifications? It's hard to say because he's surrounded by "yes" men. Anybody who stops saying "yes" around Chump gets fired immediately.

There's no question in my mind that Joe Biden will win the election. How much trouble Chump stirs up when he loses, well ... that's the scary thing we need to be ready for when the time comes.

[wiggs]

63. yep good questions. Add to it the question that even if he does win, a 'self-pardon' is questionable. nt

[ITAL]

25. Unless he'd dead

He's gonna be the nominee.

[malaise]

27. Been saying that for ages

Rec

[themaguffin]

32. Unless his cholesterol catches up with him, he will be the nominee. 100%. We need to accept that.

[redqueen]

35. I will be elated if he is

Him being ousted is not something I consider a good thing

[Demsrule86]

41. He won't be ousted.

[Renew Deal]

33. I think that it's possible he won't be the nominee

Especially if one of the trials catches up to him. He is a flawed candidate. There are many ways he ends up gone.

[DownriverDem]

34. Huh?

Unless trump is dead, he'll be the nominee.

[progressoid]

37. His base doesn't care about 91 indictments and a half billion dollars in judgments.

or the other pending court cases and they didn't care about grab em by the p***y or paying off a porn star or lying daily or ... list goes on.

They certainly don't care what Fox says or about fake AI pics.

[Demsrule86]

39. He will...too late for someone else and his hardcore supporters are big primary voters.

[William Seger]

40. I think it's possible he will lose the nomination

... but only if Rs start getting skittish about his chances of winning. His cult may worship him, but I believe the power in the party is more interested in winning than idolatry.

[jcgoldie]

42. If they pull the rug out from under Trump at this point...

Half their base will just stay home and it will destroy them up and down the ticket. They are tied to him at this point like an anvil around the neck treading in 20 feet of water.

[lonely bird]

43. Drumpf is their candidate, period

There will be no brokered convention. No Republican can garner the majority of Republican votes primarily because, imo, he tapped into the racist, misogynist, xenophobic rage that was deliberately not voting prior to 2016. That group has not gone away. Selecting a Nikki Haley at a brokered convention would effectively kill any chance of winning the presidency. It would also, imo, endanger down ballot candidates.

We are seeing calls for Biden to step aside or for selection of a different candidate at the convention. Does anyone want that?

While it may be a good idea to plan for unlikely event that Drumpf won’t be the nominee we should also proceed as though he will be.

[William Seger]

49. Don't give up hope for a physical or mental breakdown before then

Looks to me like he's deteriorating fast.

[lonely bird]

58. Now, that would be something else

A mental or physical issue causing him to be removed would be fine by me.

That being said he likely would scream about the deep state or some other Qanon type conspiracy theory and then the potential for violence would jump.

The Republican Party is completely anti-American.

[William Seger]

62. Actually, the best scenario might be if they nominated him anyway

That would likely be a blowout, whereas almost anyone else would have a better chance.

[berksdem]

50. Not sure I agree

with this at all... DC votes were low in total so I would not put much stock into your argument. TSF will be the nominee and there is about zero chance the Rs choose anyone else.

[LuckyCharms]

51. I think you may be correct. n/t

[TexasDem69]

52. If it's not it only because he's dead

Even if convicted in one of the pending criminal cases he will be the nominee

[MineralMan]

53. You could be right. I've been having the same feeling.

Trump is more fragile than most of us think. And he's suffering one piece of bad news after another, mostly due to his visits to courtrooms.

At some point, he might just turn away from it and attempt to salvage something he can live with.

I'm not predicting that, but it seems a definite possibility to me. He's facing losing a big pile of money, and money is his "precious." If he becomes unable to maintain his accustomed lifestyle and standard of living, he's going to implode, I think.

We shall see. It's a long time until the convention. If he does fall apart, the very best thing about that is that the GOP has no backup plan. No plan whatsoever. And that makes me smile, whenever I think about it.

[brush]

55. Huh? trump has some 243 delegates to Haley's 43. And that's before Super Tuesday results...

are in. After today it's be even more lopsided in turmp's favor.

Haley is toast.

There's no doubt trump will win the nomination.

What's the reasoning for this post?

[liberalla]

59. Trump not being the candidate doesn't mean Haley will be the nominee...

I'm also expecting something to happen... for him to fall apart / self destruct... just a matter of time.

[brush]

61. I hope that happens, but if it doesn't, he'll be the nominee.

We can't really expect a deus ex machina event to rid us of trump.

[awesomerwb1]

56. Zero chance he's not the nominee

unless cholesterol

[Polybius]

65. That one didn't age quite so well!

?si=hRDW6tMPpWPEWbnK

[redqueen]

66. Lol did you honestly think I meant he wouldn't win the most delegates?

No, that is not that I meant.

[Polybius]

67. I was referring to Haley dropping out

Funny that she dropped out a day after your post.

[redqueen]

68. My suspicion about this is not based on Haley

Just solely based on the rank desperation of the GOP. They have allied themselves with Putin to hold on to power

I don't put anything past them