Some facts about presidential approval

[BaronChocula]

Below are Gallup's average presidential approval ratings from Bush 1 on.

G.H.W. Bush 60.9%
Clinton 55.1%
W. Bush 49.4%
Obama 47.9%
Trump 41.1%
Biden (to date, 43%)
https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx

https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx

You may notice that with each successive president, average approval has gone down with the exception of Biden who has yet to complete his first term. Three of those five presidents who sought reelection won. The one with the highest average approval lost his reelection bid but he ran with a recent economic downturn fresh in people’s minds.

There’s a lot that goes into presidential approval, including the increasing dissatisfaction a lot of people have in their own lives perhaps leading to scapegoating. In this way, presidential DISapproval has become fashionable. One thing presidential approval has not been is a predictor of election outcomes especially before the general election gets underway.

It is a certain frustration when the one major candidate that is actually promoting Democracy is polling below 40%, but that is far from the full picture. That doesn’t mean the challenger will win, especially if, say, Americans are reminded that that challenger lies to them as a normal course or, say, illegally squirreled away America’s top secrets in his bathroom. And so on. Some other things may come up in the election process (ahem, reproductive freedom) that will have a high likelihood of moving the needle in favor of the 39% guy. Just saying.

[TwilightZone]

1. People also conflate approval with intent to vote.

They're not the same thing. Plenty of people disapproved of Trump personally, both in 2016 and 2020, and voted for him anyway. There are a lot of generational, partisan voters who simply will not vote for a member of the other party, regardless of how abhorrent their candidate is.

A similar situation holds true for President Biden, but for different reasons. He's (unfairly, in my opinion) held to a ridiculously high standard compared to Trump, which I believe is a root cause of his relatively-low approval ratings. Nonetheless, Democrats who disapprove of some of his policies and may voice that disapproval in polling will still vote overwhelmingly for him in November, in part because the alternative is a authoritarian troll. Independents will vote for him for the same reason.

[BaronChocula]

4. On the nose Twilight

There are so many detailed factors involved that people are too busy (giving the benefit of the doubt) to consider.

Not only do I agree that Biden is held to a higher standard; I think all Democrats are held to a higher standard, at least by a certain segment of Americans who lazily hold to the myth that republicans are better at handling the economy and national security. It's gotten to the point that Democrats don't get credit no matter the state of our national security or economy.

[Wounded Bear]

2. Reminds me of the "going in the right direction" polling...

When has that ever been in the positive side? Never in my memory, even in good times.

2016, the economy was on the upswing, but trump ran on grievance and "won."

Eye on the prize. Don't like the polls? Like Rachel said on that podcast, work for the politician you like.

[Bettie]

3. The question is open to interpretation though

"Is the country moving in the right direction?"

Well, I'd answer no, it isn't.
Not because of Biden, but because of the Supreme Court and state governments gutting people's rights.
Because of corporations fixing prices to keep us in eternal inflation.
Because of the lack of competition in most markets.
The continual tearing apart of the social safety net by Republicans.
The march toward theocracy....and so much more.

Biden is doing a good job with what he's got to work with, but his actions aren't the entire direction of the country by a long shot.

I've been reminding my kids that voting isn't marriage, it's public transportation, vote for who gets you closest to the place you want to be.

[BaronChocula]

5. Ah, those right direction wrong direction polls

Every time I see them it just reminds me how much people love to bitch. I would love to drill down and question those respondents on specifics to see if their criteria is really a reflection of national events or crap in their own lives.

Not to mention, the right direction/wrong direction doesn't leave any room for real-life nuance. Polls are such BS!