NYT: Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds

[Algernon Moncrieff]

President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.

The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.

Link

[onecaliberal]

1. Propaganda.

[wryter2000]

3. That's the polite term

BS is what I say

[elleng]

26. YES, UTTER Bull Shit!

[MyNameIsJonas]

20. Was it propaganda against Trump in 2020 when the same polls had him losing?

You guys sound exactly like Trump did four years ago when he dismissed every poll that showed him losing as propaganda.

[onecaliberal]

39. Uhm the polls showed dump winning or very close.

So yeah! Also look at the methodology. Several here have already shot massive holes through. Not even likely voters were polled. More bullshit mountain.

[MyNameIsJonas]

40. No they didn't. Show me the polls that showed Trump winning.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

The last poll of 2020 that had Trump up was Rasmussen from September and it was only by one.

Going back to March, 2019, Trump only led in five polls.

Not sure what you're talking about.

[onecaliberal]

41. Maybe google can refresh your memory.

[MyNameIsJonas]

43. I just showed you the polls from 2020.

Five polls from March, 2019 to November, 2020 had Trump winning. Five. Out of hundreds.

Stop making things up.

[wryter2000]

2. Saving this for next November

Just wait until people get a good look at Trump 2.0. In 2016, he lied his ass off, but his lies made sense.

[Norbert]

4. By September next year...

The terrible economy will not look so terrible to the masses. That and Authoritarian rule may not be so appealing.

[budkin]

5. Bullshit

Just like the “Red Wave” of 2022. Polling is beyond broken.

[Tomconroy]

6. Polls dont count until next summer.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. I remember when the NYT predicted that President Obama was going to be a one-term POTUS

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Polybius]

8. 43.3% approval in October, 2011

Biden's is 38.7 on 538, and 40.8 on RCP. Biden can overcome, so long as his polling goes upward like Obama's did. If it's still the same numbers in March, then I worry.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

17. The takeaway should be organizing and fundraising

Find the voters pain points with regard to Biden and show them that any of the Republicans will be worse.

[Zmarmy]

12. That was one of the rare occasions in which the NYT had Romney ahead

What did other New York Times polls say about the matchup?

[andym]

9. Inflation/ gas prices/ stock market are a huge part of this potential problem with young voters

It finally looks like the Fed's aggressive monetary policy is working. Gas prices are again falling. Barring unexpected bad news, the economy with regards to inflationary pressures is cooling just enough that the Fed could consider reversing their policy in about a year (or maybe less). Bidenomics will benefit just as Reaganomics benefited 40 years ago, transforming Reagan from a certain loser to an unbeatable candidate. The biggest problem is that there is at least a 6-9 month lag between the parallels in 1983 and 2023.

[Prairie Gates]

10. Early days, sure, but pretending this poll isn't at least somewhat representative

Is not wise.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. And Romney was ahead by 8 points at this point in 2011. Nt

[Zmarmy]

13. Link?

?

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election

Scroll down to “before convention nominations”, and you’ll see poll where Obama was losing, not only to Romney, but also Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich.

[Zmarmy]

30. Why don't you tell me the pollster? I got tired of scrolling

It’s not Rasmussen, is it? What’s the date?

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. I'm sorry your widdle finger got tired

I gave you a link to abundant information, if you don’t want to educate yourself, that’s your problem.

Of course there are some skewed polls on the list, including Rasmussen, but there are also 2011 polls from less biased pollsters that had Obama losing, including some of the same pollsters that now have Biden losing.

[Zmarmy]

35. It's very telling that you won't disclose what the pollster is

I asked you for a link to one poll, and you gave me a link to 300 polls.
I have to assume with 100% certainty that it was not New York Times/Sienna, which automatically prevents you from arguing that their polls one year prior to previous elections were not predictive.

I will also assume that you have little confidence in whatever pollster it is because you won’t name them.

and thirdly, I am convinced your reluctance to disclose the pollster without playing hide and seek is due to the fact that it’s an outlier.
That is, other polls conducted in a similar time period painted a different picture.

I think you know that I will point out it was an outlier when it came out.

I fully expect more refusal to say what the pollster was or even when it was conducted.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

16. A year is an eternity in American politics

This election has an odd dynamic, though. Typically, all other things being equal, an undecided voter without strong partisan ties will tend to vote to keep the current president in office if the economy hasn't been steered onto the rocks. In this case, there is a current president and a former president, so it will really come down to whether you feel better off now or four years ago.

Also, as with this time in 2015, the incumbent is essentially running unopposed. I live next to Iowa. I don't see ads for Joe Biden. Instead, I see ads for Nikki Haley, Ron Desantis, a few for TFG, and occasionally one for Doug Burgum. So basically, the Republicans are currently dominating the airwaves with no opposition. Also, there is no bad publicity -- every night, TFG is shown scowling at the camera at his fraud trial.

[honest.abe]

19. I don't think that's correct.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

Obama polled ahead most of the time in 2011 and 2012.

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. Check here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election

(Scroll down to “before convention nominations”)

There’s at least one poll from fall 2011 where Obama is losing to Romney by 6 points, and many others have him losing by narrower margins.

In addition, there are several 2011 polls that show him losing to Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani and Herman Cain .

[honest.abe]

23. You said Romney was ahead by 8 points at this point in 2011.

I don’t think that is correct.

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. I read another post this morning that quoted a poll not represented on the Wikipedia page

If I find the link, I’ll post it.

The point is, polls a year out from the election have almost no predictive value.

[honest.abe]

25. I agree polls this far out have little predictive value.

Most likely this election will be decided in the few weeks just preceding the election.

[muriel_volestrangler]

34. I think we should assume that was an unreliable poll by an unreliable company

since it did not make it to the Wikipedia page, and those that are there show, in November, Obama leading Romney by 4,2,1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 6, or 1 percentage points; or Romney leading by 2,2,4, 1, 1.

Obama won by about 4 percentage points. So the polls weren't that bad, a year ahead. Maybe another example than Obama is needed?

[standingtall]

32. If look below the the final spread of Obama +3.9

You will see the the RCP average only favored Obama by +0.7

Even that is skewed if you look closer you will see at least 11 polls were released in the final week 4 with Obama winning 2 for Romney and the rest were ties. If the RCP really had Obama ahead most of 2011 and 2012 then the the spread would've been much higher than 0.7. There was a reason why many republican strategist were complaining how pollsters lied to them the day after the election.

[lame54]

14. Bizarro World

[Initech]

18. This is not their opinion. This is Sean Hannity's opinion.

And every right wing megachurch pastor and AM radio talk show host in America. This is not the opinion of the voters, right wing voters have been severely brainwashed.

[SKKY]

22. But, a generic Democrat is up +4, so take this for what you will...

...Plus, we don't know who Trump will pick as his running mate. If it's MTG or Scary Lake, it might just be a landslide. I'm secretly pulling for MTG.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

27. It was made clear weeks ago

that Slobby buys polls.

Does everyone have amnesia?

That poll is meant for an audience of one, probably in consideration of the ketchup bottles and whoever is within shouting distance of the biggest, ugliest "man"- baby the world has ever known.

[former9thward]

29. Trump paid the New York Times for this poll?

OK....

[brooklynite]

33. Additionally, explain why a teaching University would create a fake poll for the NY Times.

[Zmarmy]

37. You tell us

Did he pay for this poll?

[former9thward]

38. No

[TheRealNorth]

28. A lot of undecideds...

There may be some Democratic leaners in there that just won't commit to Biden at this time. Part of our strategy needs to be to emphasize the other guy will be worse for things like abortion rights.

[Zmarmy]

36. 7% undecided in Nevada and Pennsylvania

That’s not a lot. Normal number.

[brooklynite]

42. COOK POLITICAL REPORT perspective...

https://x.com/amyewalter/status/1721626761656504392