Anyone Else Waiting To See The "Rasmussen Reversal" Tomorrow Morning?

[TrollBuster9090]

We all know what the game is with Rasmussen polls. Their job in between elections is to buck up the troops, and maintain the Republican voters 'bubble' by reporting fudged numbers that show higher than actual support for Republican candidates and positions. They also do a bit of push polling with loaded questions designed to influence, rather than report public opinion.

But, in order to maintain their facade of credibility, they must start reporting more accurate numbers as we get closer to the election, because these will be compared to the actual result.

So...have you noticed Rasmussen reporting Romney more or less leading Obama (by up to 5 points) since May, and now the numbers are tightening up, showing a virtual tie? This I like to call the last minute Rasmussen Reversal, where they switch from fudged numbers to real ones. Their numbers are now virtually the same as the RCP Average, when they're normally an extreme outlier.

They're due to post their final poll results tomorrow morning, and $100 says they'll show Obama in the lead.

However, they're in a bit of a pickle this year! In order to maintain credibility, they HAVE to report a number on the day of the election that will reflect the actual vote count. But how do you take into account all the voter suppression, and Republican CHEATING (crooked Diebold machines etc.) that will take place tomorrow?

I don't envy them, but at the same time I definitely don't feel sorry for them.

EDIT PS: I'll bet I know how they're going to get their 'final' numbers to report tomorrow, and it ain't by doing any polling work tonight. They'll simply take the average of all the LEGITIMATE pollsters, and (ironically) exclude Rasmussen from it. That'll probably be pretty close to the actual EXIT POLLS taken tomorrow. However, as with the 2004 election, the EXIT POLLS may not match the actual election count, due to masses of State level Republican cheating.

EDIT 2: Apparently GALLUP has pulled a "reversal" too. Two days ago they had Romney leading by 5 points. Yesterday they updated it, and apparently Obama has gained four points overnight, pulling him into a virtual tie with Romney. I guess Rasmussen isn't the only hack outfit worried about their credibility when the actual vote count is compared to their prediction polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/

[scheming daemons]

1. they will report a tie.. 49-49

Hedge their bets

[TrollBuster9090]

2. Probably for the national average, but I wonder what they'll do for the State polls? nt

[David Zephyr]

4. I agree with that.

.

[hrmjustin]

5. +1

[panAmerican]

3. Best to bookmark the Romney boosters' prediction articles

Then you can counter with "I told you so"!

[TrollBuster9090]

8. Or better yet, watch Karl Rove explain to his plutocratic donors how he spent

$600 000 000 or so of their money and STILL managed to lose.

[David Zephyr]

6. Yes to all you wrote, but Rasmussen's role is also to keep donations flowing.

If the polls were realistic, the GOP fatcats stop donating, so this is also a very big component to the skewed polls by Rasmussen, Gallup and Gravis. They have to keep the uber-rich giving money to a lost cause by giving the illusion it's a tight race or that their candidate is ahead.

And yes, they are already re-aligning (the word I have used) their polling "results" to be more in line with reality so they can keep their business models going in the future.

The corollary to the above that needs to be noted is that the other pollsters did not "re-align" their numbers. Ponder that. It speaks volumes.

K&R for you OP, TrollBuster9090.

[TrollBuster9090]

9. Thanks, and yes, another reason for fudging the poll numbers is to keep the donations coming in.

And if Obama wins anyway, it will send a serious shockwave through that election-financing model. ie-despite Citizens United...you CAN'T actually BUY an election. So, maybe you guys should think about getting back to some policy positions that favor the middle class, rather than gearing ALL government policy towards benefiting plutocrats, then getting large amounts of kickbacks from them and using them on a MASS HYPNOSIS campaign on TV. That strategy will only take you so far, and they've obviously reached their limit with it.

And Democrats should start focusing their attention on campaign finance reform, and returning the FAIRNESS DOCTRINE to the FEC (which is something Obama could do on his own!).

One of the biggest disappointments to me was that, when the Democrats controlled the House 2008-2010, they made very little effort to clean up the election process, and now we're all paying for it.

[regnaD kciN]

7. Are they even releasing results tomorrow?

Most polling firms put out their "final" results today.

[TrollBuster9090]

10. According to Rasmussen's site, they're planning on posting their 'final' numbers tomorrow morning.

And my guess is they'll be identical to the RCP average for today, if you EXCLUDE RASMUSSEN. How ironic is that?


In fact, I doubt they even conduct polling at this point. They just take the national average of all the polls, excluding Rasmussen (and this year excluding Gallup as well), and report it as a 'new' number. It'll probably pretty close to the actual election results.