Popular Vote / Electoral Vote mismatch up to 6.9%
I've been watching this one inching up for weeks.
Nate silver has a column of Scenario Analysis down the page some. It is "How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate Silver's numbers say that Romney has about a 6.9% chance of winning the national popular vote while losing the election.
That number was 1% not long ago. It reached 4% this weekend.
It is not likely, of course. 6.9% is not likely. But it is 23 times more likely than a tie in the Electoral College (0.3%) and about ten times more likely than Obama winning the popular vote but losing the election (0.7%)
(I find odds and such interesting. For the last couple weeks I've been saying that if one could bet the election with no vigorish, no house cut, that betting on Obama winning the electoral college and hedging by betting on Romney winning the popular vote would be the right play. Most of the time it would be a wash. Some of the time you'd win both bets.)
