re: Razor-thin. The election actually Is incredibly close.
By all the usual measures this election is incredibly close.
That does not mean that the odds of the two candidates winning are incredibly close.
Two different things.
Say the Broncos lead the Cowboys 21-20 with one minute left, and Denver has the ball. The game is, indeed, very close, but the Cowboys have an extremely small chance of winning.
Within the established norms of campaign coverage, if almost every national poll being released the day before the election is within 1% that is, indeed, very, very close.
In national polling terms, this is probably the closest election since 1960, and certainly the closest since 2000.
But the odds of Romney winning are very slight.
Nate Silver says Obama has an 86.3% chance of winning. Nate Silver also has the popular vote at only a 2% difference.
The two assessments are not incompatible.
I cannot fault the media for "Incredibly close with a slight edge to Obama," or "Razor-thin, but Obama may have the momentum." As long as they acknowledge some Obama advantage I'm okay with it.
The alternative would be to demand that the entire media dispense with the way every election in the TV age has been covered and adopt a Nate Silver type prediction model. And there is a case to be made for the media not reporting a prediction model as fact.
But yeah, Obama is far more likely to win the election.
= new reply since forum marked as read
I'm thinking 350+ EV. Perhaps even way over that. But I may just be a giddy idiot. 
