Sabato: Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term

[kpete]

Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.

This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?

Adding to the president’s good fortune was a final jobs report that was basically helpful because it wasn’t disastrously bad — that is, the unemployment rate failed to jump back above the psychologically damaging level of 8%. Romney could have used that number to build a crescendo for change. Instead, the final potential obstacle to Obama’s reelection passed by as a one-day story. While Romney surged after the first debate, he never quite closed the deal in the key swing states. And now, we believe he has run out of time.

[KaryninMiami]

1. Thanks- my first rec of the morning

And a welcome morning sigh of hope...

[BlueStreak]

2. I think that's actually pretty accurate

I don't know about the governors.

Some people are hoping for a new add in the Senate, but I think net zero change is probably the likely outcome --- and that is a huge victory, considering that absolutely nobody though this was remotely possible just 10 months ago.

I wish there were a bigger pick-up in the House, but that really is tough considering how the Republicans control so many of the legislatures and this election reflects redistricting after the 2010 census. On the basis of the Obama GOTV efforts, I'd like to think it will be more like Dem 205 - GOP 230, but that might not be realistic. We need to get to work on the mid-terms. the good news there is there probably won't be so many billionaires throwing down money in 2014. If Obama puts forward an aggressive, popular, populist agenda in the next 2 years, we can start targeting those who obstruct the most.

I expect at least one state will be contested, so I am hopeful we will have about 290 EVs not counting contested states.