Progress - tracking the election since Thurs AM Nov 1...updated 3 Pm today. Lots of data!

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Tue Nov 6, 2012, 02:46 PM - Edit history (8)

Summaries:

Intrade - Thurs Nov 1 9 AM 67.8, today Nov 6 1:30 PM 70. In between range, 64.1-71. Obama 303 EVs, NC red, FL pink
Princeton - Thurs 8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win , today Nov 6 final update 312, 100% - has NC pink, FL too close to call
538 blog - Thurs 12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast), today final update 313 (90.9) - has NC pink, FL pale blue
Polltracker (TPM) - Thurs 9 AM - 303 EVs, today final update 290 with VA, NC and FL too close to call
Huffpost - Thurs Nov 1 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs, today final update 277 with CO, NH, VA, NC and FL too close to call

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Intrade http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Thurs Nov 1
9:48 EST - 67.8%
12:20 PM - 68.2%
3 PM - 66.8
5 PM - 65.9 (this seems typical - some Romney money must be coming in)
9 PM 64.9
10 PM 66.7
11:30 PM 67.4

Friday Nov 2
Fri 9:30 AM 68.3
1:20 PM 66
4:45 PM 66.8
10 PM 67.5

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 67.5
1 PM 66.8
3:30 PM 66.9
5 PM 67.5
10 PM 66.5

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 64.1
noon 65.5
2:30 PM 64.8
4:45 PM 65.5
6:45 PM 64.9
9:30 PM 64.0

Monday Nov 5
9 AM 66.7
noon 66.2
3 PM 67.1
7 PM 68.5 (was in the low 70s earlier)

Tuesday Nov 6 - THE BIG DAY
8:30 71% (was in the mid 70s earlier)
1 PM 69.5

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Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu/

Thurs Nov 1
8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win
noon 312 EVs, 99.1%
3 PM 316 EVs, 99.1% (Random Drift 96%)
8 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)
11 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)

Fri Nov 2
8 AM update 318 EVs, 99.2% (96%)
noon 318, 99.3
4:45 PM 319, 99.5
8 PM 319, 99.6

Sat Nov 3
9:30 am 323 EVs, 99.8%
noon 323, 99.8
3:30 PM 323, 99.8
5 PM 323, 99.8
10 PM 323, 99.8

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 319, 99.9
noon 319, 99.9
4:45 PM 318, 99.8
9:30 PM 303, 99.9

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 305 99.8
10 AM 305 99.8
noon 303, 99.9
7 PM 310 99.9

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 312 100% !!!!!!!
1 PM 312 100%
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538 blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Thurs Nov 1
12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast)
9 PM update - 303 EVs, 80.8% (304/83 Nowcast)
11:40 PM update 303.4, 80.9 (303.9, 82.9 Nowcast)

Fri Nov 2
7 PM update 303.3, 81.1; nowcast 302.8, 82.5
8:30 303.7 81.4 (nowcast 304.3 83.7)
11:30 PM 304.8, 82.7 (305, 83.9)

Sat Nov 3
12:45 AM 305.3 83.7%

Sun Nov 4
8 AM 306.9, 85.1 (now cast 307.2, 86.6)
7 PM 306.4 85.5 (307.7, 87.5)

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 307.2 (86.3) (308.4, 88)

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 314.6 (91.6%)
1 PM 313 (90.9)

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Polltracker (TPM site) http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

Thurs Nov 1
9 AM - 303 EVs
4 PM 285 EVs
10 PM 285

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM 276
1:30 PM 285
4:45 PM 285
9:30 PM 285

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 303 EVs

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 303
noon 303
2:30 PM 303

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 303
noon 281 (CO back to tossup, as well as NC, FL, VA)
3 PM 290

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 290
1 PM 290
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Huff post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
Thurs Nov 1
7 AM - Obama 277 EVs
5 PM Obama 277 EVs
11 PM - 277

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM - 259
12:30 PM - 259
2 PM 277
4:45 PM 277
5:45 PM 281
9:30 PM 281

Sat No 3
9:30 AM 277 EV
1 PM 277
3:30 PM 281
10 PM 277

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 277
noon 277
2:30 PM 277

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 277
noon 277
3 PM 277

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 277
1 PM 277
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Everyone Vote! My prediction - Obama victory called at 11:15 PM tonight - will end up with 347 EVs

GOTV!

[adigal]

1. Yes! Trending upward! Thank the stars! We will win. GOTV!

I am going to see if anyone needs transportation to the polling center when I get home from work Tuesday!

[flowomo]

2. Thanks for your work on this, and everybody should read...

Sam Wang's analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the various aggregators. He respects all the ones he considers, but notes the circumstances in which they would be off base. And yes, it appears he has dropped NC from Obama's column.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. kicking - now shows Thursday through this morning's trends. GOTV! Go Obama!

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. one more kick with 3 PM today data