EJ Dionne just said on Ed that the national polls

[Binders Keepers]

have built into their models an underestimation of the black and Hispanic turnout. If he is right, he said, we will be surprised on Tuesday by the strength of the minority turnout. I heard Dionne speak in my hometown last week. He's a very balanced, level-headed fellow, not prone to making extravagant statements.

[spanone]

1. landslide

[Greybnk48]

3. Agree 100%. Landslide! n/t

[BouzoukiKing]

28. We'll see.

I'll be quite outrageously happy with 0.5% more of the popular vote than in 2008, and a few more Electors.

I don't like massive shit in politics - it never lasts. I like slow and steady and dependable. I like to see people's minds changing, one at a time. That lasts.

[AsahinaKimi]

29. wouldn't that just be sweet.

[RichGirl]

2. Thanks for this!!

[Cha]

4. Wonder why the national polls don't have representation of our

Blacks and Hispanics built into their models? Seems more than a little short sighted.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Historical data supports many of the likely voter assumptions

But, as with anything, one can get hyperfocused on "precedent" and fail to notice transition into distinct historical formations. I think that's what's happening with "minority" (even the word is starting to sound silly) voting patterns. If you have mobilized minority blocs that buck historical averages, then the models based on those averages will be insufficient. That's the argument here.

[beveeheart]

18. Thanks for the explanation.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

27. +1 nt

[freshwest]

11. Don't want to talk to them?

[KaryninMiami]

5. K&R. As per my new rule

I rec and kick whatever posts calm me down..

[freshwest]

9. Same here. And I want you to laugh a little, too:

ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=130631

He remembers everything that we've forgotten in this campaign season, and does it with humor and links to prove it.

I've only been able to give it one Rec, of course. I wish it would get on the Greatest Page or Trending Now so that everyone that lurks can be encouraged and feel better.

[KaryninMiami]

13. Thank you! That was a great link!

Made me smile!

[OneGrassRoot]

21. I like this new rule, and thanks for that link, freshwest!

It WAS great!

[blue sky at night]

30. hey you brought me out of my hidey hole...

I haven't said one word all cycle but your link just kicked my ass big time! thanks!

[freshwest]

31. Yeah, go post over there and rec it so other can enjoy it. Glad you liked it.

[Ruby the Liberal]

14. Miami?

Y'all had a really hectic day down there today. I know it was rough, but in the end - it will be worth it.

[Thrill]

6. All Polls that are LV models

Do this. They assume, Black, Hispanic, and Young voters won't actually. That's why Pres Obama's leads are almost double when they show you the numbers from their RV models

[brewens]

8. I've been thinking the Republicans shit in their own mess-kit with all the voter suppression!

I can't think of any way to fire up voters than to try and tell them they can't. Americans are like that. They just don't look at minorities as real Americans.

How many minorities that had ID's all along may not have voted if it wasn't for all the bullshit? Sure they ran the numbers on how many they thought they could block that didn't have ID's, even how many of their own voters would get caught in it. They didn't count on it turning into a massive backlash though!

[hedgehog]

12. Agreed! Tell people there's a shortage, and they'd line up to have a colonoscopy!

[Brainstormy]

10. I don't expect a landslide, but

folks with cellphones only, and Spanish speakers have been seriously under polled. Virtually no polling has been done in Spanish. There WILL be some surprises.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

15. That's exactly what I've been thinking

That the GOTV for occasional, sporadic and new voters blows the LV models polls use right out of the water. There will be a lot more minority voters participating in the 2012 than they expect.

Axe is betting his stach on it.

Landslide is possible, but I'll settle for a convincing win, with coattails and a nice popular vote margin.

[BlueStreak]

16. Just look at NC. A huge percentage of African-Americans have already voted.

[progressoid]

25. Yup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251212141

[mick063]

17. Old models

It appears that the old models don't take the "browning of America" into account.

[codjh9]

19. I'll only believe it when I see it, but a landslide would be SO great ... talk about gloating! :^)

[CheapShotArtist]

20. E.J.'s probably right. In general, I don't think too many people respond to polling.

And this is slightly off-topic, but I'm curious how the polling has been for Native American and Asian voters. I never hear too much about their turnout, and whether they've been impacted by the voter suppression efforts as well.

[Isoldeblue]

22. My gut is telling me for over a week now

It will be a modest landslide. As long as the numbers are high enough to blow the neo-cons out of the water to prevent a recount, I will be blissfully happy.
Btw, my gut is often correct

[CreekDog]

23. I've been posting for days about the polls that underestimate nonwhite and female turnout

the latest poll with the smallest margin for Obama in Pennsylvania does it.

and a lot of these polls, Gallup in particular, don't just estimate a turnout that is whiter than in 2008, they predict a turnout that is FAR whiter than in 2004!

[Fawke Em]

24. They also show it closer than it is because Obama is doing so poorly in the red

states.

In other words, the red states are so far up RMoney's ass that it's dragging Obama's numbers down nationally; however, that makes no difference in how we vote for the president. We vote state-by-state and by EC votes. Basically, all the racist white middle-aged males who hate Obama in the South and mid-West are bunched up together and have no effect on the EC.

[rury]

26. If that's the case we are looking at an Obama landslide Tuesday!!!!!!!!