General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums85.1%! - Nate Silver Update 1 a.m. Nov. 4: Trend Continues UP for Obama
Final Sunday Before Election.
86.1% Chance of Winning on the Nov. 4 Forecast
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
...86.3% Chance of Winning on the Now-Cast.
NOV. 6 FORECAST:
ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION (The probability that President Obama receives a given number of Electoral College votes):
STATE-BY-STATE PROBABILITIES:
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)So damn close! Come on!
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)Also, swing states turning from pink to light blue.
dchill
(38,532 posts)Nate read your post!
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...since the number we've been talking about there is the forecast (currently 84.4%), not the now-cast.
amborin
(16,631 posts)the now cast had been 97% back a ways
Although the Now-Cast is only two days away from Nov. 6 now. But I see your point.
mindwalker_i
(4,407 posts)dchill
(38,532 posts)CNN copyrighted that!
Cha
(297,655 posts)tom brokaw.
TDale313
(7,820 posts)mick063
(2,424 posts)n/t
TDale313
(7,820 posts)Which is great.
SunSeeker
(51,695 posts)BlueMan Votes
(903 posts)the lines are getting farther apart faster.
budkin
(6,714 posts)This is fantastic!!!
RainDog
(28,784 posts)fujiyama
(15,185 posts)It shouldn't make a big difference, but just checking.
I like that VA has moved above 70%. I'm as confident in him taking that state as OH, maybe a bit more. I think Husted will try to pull all sorts of shit in OH.
The Now Cast and Forecast models are converging as expected.