Big update from Jim Messina

[RandySF]

Jim Messina ?@Messina2012
FACT: In CO, FL, IA, NC, and NV, 1.4 million non-midterm Dems have voted already, compared with just 840,000 non-midterm Republicans.


https://twitter.com/Messina2012

[immoderate]

1. What's a non-midterm Dem?

--imm

[Sekhmets Daughter]

2. Perhaps those who didn't vote in the mid-term election of 2010?

[erik satie]

3. Dems who didn't vote on the midterm election in 2010?

[LisaL]

4. Dem who didn't vote in 2010.

[DarthDem]

5. Someone Who Did Not Vote in 2010 . . .

. . . in the midterms. The ones that didn't go so well for us. Different story this time around. In fact, there may never be a midterm election like that one again in terms of the low ebb of Democratic enthusiasm.

[ashtonelijah]

7. Dumb Dems that didn't vote in 2010

And let the tea party take over.

[rbrnmw]

19. ^^^^^This^^^^^^

[Nancy Waterman]

10. Perhaps a non "likely voter"

because they didn't vote last time

[nc4bo]

21. Kids like my wayward son! Voted in 2008 but skipped 2010 and voting in 2012.

I could kill him but he's mine and I can't.

[barnabas63]

6. The numbers sound good, but without context..

...it's hard to understand what they really mean.

[Wounded Bear]

8. Any time more Dems voted than Repubs, that's a good thing....

Not saying it decides anything, because Repubs tend to outvote Dems on election day, but I'd rather be leading than not.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

16. Repubs do tend to mostly vote on Election Day

The numbers will change. Question is, by how much.

[vdogg]

9. What I take from this

Is that polling firms relying on 2010 turnout models to determine likely voters are screwed.

[dsc]

11. that we are getting out our harder to get voters

while they are getting out their usual voters. In other words, our early voters likely wouldn't have shown up on election day while theirs likely would have.

[barnabas63]

13. excellent!

I know everyone's been working hard!

[BlueStreak]

17. Right, and these are voters who might not have come out on election day

On election day, you just can't waste any time with reluctant voters.

That's a pretty big spread, but I wish I knew the state breakdown. I don't blame Messina for keeping that close to the vest.

This directly addresses the GOP claim that the Dem advantage in early voting was because were were just getting our Election Day voters to come out early. Clearly that is not the case. Messina has said all along that we are targeting the more reluctant voters for early voting, and this is evidence that he was telling the truth.

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. He's essentially beating up on Gallup's likely voter model

He's daring Gallup to retain the same for their November 5 poll. The Gallup model takes into account whether somebody voted in the latest midterm, and gives that variable a weight. It also weights Democrat or Republican based on historical data that Republican registered voters are more likely to vote. Together, those two variables have been largely responsible for Gallup's big Romney lead. Messina is saying, "So, check this out, Gallup. We are fielding huge numbers of registered Democrats who didn't vote in the latest midterm. So, you wanna stick with your model, or do you want to be right?"

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

15. If I'm reading this correctly, we're beating it to death

nt

[BumRushDaShow]

18. And that would also inlcude challenging this assertion

October 30, 2012
U.S. Voter Turnout Will Likely Fall Short of 2004, 2008
Fewer voters this year say they are thinking about election, will definitely vote
by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what it was in 2004 and 2008. U.S. registered voters report giving less thought to the election, and are less likely to rate their chance of voting as a "10" on a 10-point scale, than in 2004 and 2008, two higher-turnout elections. However, the 2012 figures are higher than in 1996 and 2000, two lower-turnout elections.

More: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158435/voter-turnout-likely-fall-short-2004-2008.aspx

[wishlist]

14. Good sign for voters not considered likely voters to be voting

Obama leads among registered voters more than among likely voters in most polls. Pollsters consider likely voters to be those who did vote in midterms and are more likely to vote now. Therefore this is a good sign that Dems who are registered but didn't vote in 2010 (when Repubs came out more) are coming out this time more than Repubs who also didn't vote in 2010

[chieftain]

20. The early vote push is targeted at "sporadic voters"

Non mid term Dems fit that category. The idea of getting sporadic voters to the polls early is not just to bank votes but to expand the electorate with Obama voters who don't always get to the polls on E Day.