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NRaleighLiberal

(60,015 posts)
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 01:39 PM Nov 2012

When those anxious moments hit about Tuesday, think about this....(stats!)

The 538 poll aggregate by Nate Silver - the closest Romney got to 270 electoral votes was on October 12, where he had an estimate of 254. In other words, Obama has never trailed, Romney has never led. ROMNEY'S BEST ODDS OF WINNING percentage was 38%!

On the Princeton consortium, Obama has never trailed - his low point was just before debate 2 - but still had over 270 Electoral Votes.

Intrade (people are serious about money - this is where people put real money on the outcome) - Romney has never been at 50% or above chance to win - ever. closest was after debate 1 when some pro Romney money came in and pushed him up to over 40%.

If something really goes amiss on Tuesday due to some sort of riff raff action and the above numbers are way off, it will stink so much and be so obvious that the shit would hit the fan so hard, in my view, the perps could not get away with it....

anyway, back to GOTV.....it is certainly appropriate to be anxious about this one, since it is so, so important!

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When those anxious moments hit about Tuesday, think about this....(stats!) (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Nov 2012 OP
thank you! renate Nov 2012 #1
yes. yes. barbtries Nov 2012 #2

renate

(13,776 posts)
1. thank you!
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 01:55 PM
Nov 2012

It really is comforting to remember that although he's been ahead in the polls in the past, he's never ever actually been favored to win by the statisticians. What you wrote is all very logical and reassuring. And now I will return to biting my nails because anything short of 99% from Nate is going to make me worry....

Thanks!

barbtries

(28,799 posts)
2. yes. yes.
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:51 PM
Nov 2012

honestly i am not worried that Obama will lose: i am confident that he will win. all my anxiety has to do with knowing what absolutely unamerican motherfuckers republicans are. they will stop at nothing unless they know they won't get away with it. they got away with it in 2000 and 2004.

keep on getting out the VOTE. the numbers will carry the day.

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