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General Discussion

joeybee12

(56,177 posts) Fri Nov 2, 2012, 01:34 PM Nov 2012

2

My prediction: a 3.5% win in the popular vote, 329 electoral votes...

That's my prediction, and I'm sticking to it. It could go up to 4% margin and add NC in Obama's column for 344 votes, but I think 329 is safer.

9 replies

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My prediction: a 3.5% win in the popular vote, 329 electoral votes... (Original Post) joeybee12 Nov 2012 OP

you're missing 3 EVs? erik satie Nov 2012 #1

Did I count wrong? joeybee12 Nov 2012 #2

Yeah, all toss-ups without NC equals 332 EVs...NC is in play so let's erik satie Nov 2012 #3

The CNN map had NC leaning Rmoney...I don't think so... joeybee12 Nov 2012 #4

I agree, but if you include early voting advantage and remove polls from say Rasmussen and Gravis erik satie Nov 2012 #5

Which states? nt BainsBane Nov 2012 #6

All the toss-ups and all the safe... joeybee12 Nov 2012 #7

I'm not sure how you get that Spider Jerusalem Nov 2012 #8

It does...someone above noted I was 3 off... joeybee12 Nov 2012 #9

erik satie

(81 posts)

1. you're missing 3 EVs?

Reply to joeybee12 (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:00 PM

Nov 2012

joeybee12

(56,177 posts)

2. Did I count wrong?

Reply to erik satie (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:02 PM

Nov 2012

I'm giving him all the toss-up states...that and the ones he'll definitely get.

erik satie

(81 posts)

3. Yeah, all toss-ups without NC equals 332 EVs...NC is in play so let's

Reply to joeybee12 (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:07 PM

Nov 2012

suppose he wins that too = 347 EV and if Lady Luck comes our way Nebraska's 2nd district will vote for Obama again = 348 EVs

joeybee12

(56,177 posts)

4. The CNN map had NC leaning Rmoney...I don't think so...

Reply to erik satie (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:08 PM

Nov 2012

I think that will be too close to call up to the end..

erik satie

(81 posts)

5. I agree, but if you include early voting advantage and remove polls from say Rasmussen and Gravis

Reply to joeybee12 (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:12 PM

Nov 2012

it's pretty much a toss-up...and remember that Obama squeaked a win in 2008 by a very small margin there, but I really don't see why history can't repeat itself.

BainsBane

(53,035 posts)

6. Which states? nt

Reply to joeybee12 (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:20 PM

Nov 2012

joeybee12

(56,177 posts)

7. All the toss-ups and all the safe...

Reply to BainsBane (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:23 PM

Nov 2012

Didn't give him AZ, which some think is in play.

Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)

8. I'm not sure how you get that

Reply to joeybee12 (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:33 PM

Nov 2012

There's not a combination of states Obama can win that gives a total of 329.

I'm assuming your prediction gives Obama Virginia and Florida which is 332: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=beBs

Even without those two he'd have 290.

joeybee12

(56,177 posts)

9. It does...someone above noted I was 3 off...

Reply to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 02:41 PM

Nov 2012

I think VA is more likely than FL for some reason.

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