Gallup Update on National Tracking Poll (*MAY* Do Poll Covering Last 4 Days)

[berni_mccoy]

Gallup just published an announcement that they are basically giving up the tracking poll. They are considering doing a poll that covers that last 4 days of the election to be published on Monday as a final "predictor". I find this excuse highly suspect. They've consistently weighted their data to what they *believe* the demographics and cross tabs *should* be. Furthermore, they've still got other national tracking polls that are current.

Here is an excerpt from their statement:

All survey data are weighted to match the demographic characteristics of the population as a whole, including weights for telephone use now that interviewing involves both land lines and cell phones. But it is impossible to adequately weight to compensate for large segments of the population who cannot be reached at all in a survey, or in very low percentages, and whose opinions may have changed from previous, pre-storm measures.

Gallup is now tentatively planning on conducting interviewing over the last four days of this week, Thursday through Sunday, to provide a final pre-election estimate of the election race. The decisions we make on the validity of the sample and the analysis of the data that results will be carefully informed by the degree of recovery from the storm over the period of the survey.

In other words, they're going to look at the results before they decide to publish the data.

Yeah, right.

BTW, RCP National Polling Average has Obama in the Lead for the first time since the National Tracking Polls shifted after the first debate.

[aaaaaa5a]

1. CYA.... Gallup is such a joke.

The idea that the MSM still holds this pollster with higher regard than the many other pollsters out there that do better work is just foolish.


Gallup is no better than PPP, Reuters, Survey USA, NBC, Quinnipiac, etc.



The Gallup numbers were wrong. And they know it. The problem is how much positive press did the Romney campaign get from numbers that now even Gallup (based on their own actions) is essentially telling us were a mistake?


Funny, you pull one pollster out and suddenly the National race is roughly even. In fact on RCP (which excludes many polls favorable to Obama) the President now actually leads in their aggregate National poll data. What does that tell you?