OH MY! This Can't Be Good...

[berni_mccoy]

...For Romney!

Latest Nate Silver Update Forecast and Nowcast Predictions

[Sekhmets Daughter]

1. You're funny...thanks for the chuckle.

[savebigbird]

2. I don't like your subject line.

It made me a little queasy before I read your post.

[GoneOffShore]

5. Welcome to DU.

Home of the "Gotcha" subject line.

Would you have clicked on the post otherwise?

[berni_mccoy]

7. Shhhhh... it's to draw the freepers in.

They love to click on threads that appear negative. I love to trap them into looking at the opposite.

Don't tell anyone.

[amuse bouche]

8. DUer's like to sometimes taunt and frighten

Just go with the flow. Think of them as Ellen DeGeneres

[GoneOffShore]

17. Or Jerry Seinfeld.

But not Kramer.

[amuse bouche]

19. Ellen Loves to

prank and scare her guests. I don't recall that as a Seinfeld gag

What am I missing

[GoneOffShore]

21. Forget I spoke - It's Thursday and there was wine at dinner.

Actually, there's always wine at dinner. But tonight there were other things as well.

[savebigbird]

25. You could have stopped after "It's Thursday"

...and I would have understood!

[12AngryBorneoWildmen]

27. YOU are TOO funny

[amuse bouche]

33. Ok

no problem. I've been contemplating what to drink election night.

I need something stronger than wine to get through it all. Maybe a nice Scotch..

[Carol Lynn]

24. got me

I'm still new around here, and I'll admit you got me!!! Phew!!!

[flying_wahini]

18. welcome to DU

n/t

[savebigbird]

26. Thanks! n/t

[msanthrope]

23. Your concern is noted. Please feel free to share more of your concerns, and enjoy your stay. nt

[savebigbird]

28. Thanks! I like your signature...

Sorry, unrelated to the original post...

[Life Long Dem]

3. 80% +

[barnabas63]

4. Ouch!

Low numbers gotta hurt !!

[Angry Dragon]

6. I hope the Fraud and his sidekick the Liar get their asses handed to them

[easychoice]

12. in a used to go box

n/t

[doc03]

9. I hope it is right but watching Rachel Maddow just now

it doesn't look good at all. She has Romney leading in FL,NC,VA and the other states like PA, OH, MI WI IA Obama is just holding on to a extremely slim lead. If the undecided break for Romney like they say and unless the Democrats turn out extremely well I fear we are going to lose. Pretty much those states are in the margin of error.

[Quixote1818]

11. Obama will probably lose FL and NC and he could lose VA and CO but the others have had so much

polling the stat nerds have a pretty clear picture that Obama is up by anywhere from 2 to 8 points in the other states and in the past few days there seems to be some movement toward Obama. Momentum in the last week toward Obama is really bad news for Mitt. This is why the betting sites are moving toward Obama in a big way the past two days: http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

[doc03]

13. It certainly doesn't look like the cake walk indicated on 538

to me, all it takes is one or two states not going as planned and it's over.

[Quixote1818]

16. True, thats why it's an 80% chance and not 99% chance

Mitt still has close to a 1 in 4 shot at winning. There have been plenty of times when we had a 20% chance of rain and got rain.

[siligut]

20. And there is word that real patriots vote ON election day

Personally, I believe that this is when the cheating will be turned on.

[politicat]

32. Do remember that Ms. Maddow has said herself that she can find the cloud in any silver lining.

She's a pessimist, and a fellow worst-case scenarist. (I love her, think she's the smartest person in media, and 99% of the time, I'm glad she thinks as deeply as she does.) It can be a useful trait, especially because every system needs to have failure mode paths. That's what she's laying out, but the thing with worst case scenarios is at they require multiple, layered failure paths to intersect. When looking at that scenario, remember that it is a very, very difficult path with several low probability way points.

As the cartoon said, relax and read Nate Silver. (Xanax and/or booze optional.) Also, look at the North Carolina daily numbers. They're refreshing, too.

Oh... And this. People tend to be small c conservative - they prefer that which is familiar in stressful situations. We have an improving economy and a crisis situation, but neither are resolved. We have a known quantity in President Obama, who has shown himself to be a steady leader. Mitt-wit remains unknown to most people - we don't know what he'll do, nor can we trust what comes out of his mouth, because that will either be walked back or changed soon.

Hope that helps - it's how I talk myself down when something spikes my heart rate.

[Glimmer of Hope]

10. We will get to 90?

[geckosfeet]

14. good news - thanks for the update

[davidpdx]

15. As Homer would say

"Why you little..."

[12AngryBorneoWildmen]

29. Good one.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. 80.3% chance of winning in Ohio.

[BlueDemKev]

30. God, let's hope Silver is right...

...because if Romney wins, not only will I be devastated, Nate will be FINISHED as a pollster.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

37. He doesn't do polls. He's a number cruncher.

[Andy Stanton]

31. All we need is 270

I'll be happy with even a 1 vote win.

[bonniebgood]

34. That binder full of women, could one have been named

Sandy? Sandy the GOP payback for the war on women.

[Yul A]

35. Poor Mitt

Wait: What the Hell am I saying? Romney will never be poor!

Fortunately for us, he'll never be President, either.

[BlueMan Votes]

36. how does one get .2 electoral college votes...?

or .8 or .1...etc.

[iiibbb]

38. Nate runs his model at least 1000 times. That is the average of all of those simulations.

nt

[BlueMan Votes]

39. it should be rounded off to the nearest whole number

seeing as it's not possible to get a fraction of an EC vote.

[iiibbb]

40. Why, it's a model, not reality.

Thee are many winning scenarios, the decimal represents the error as well as emphasizes this was derived from a computer model.