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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJeniffer Rubin....
On a scale from 1-10 ...10 being incredibly stupid, how dumb is Jennifer Rubin?
There are two starkly different views of the race. President Obamas team takes refuge in public state polling and declares it can pull out a close electoral vote win. Mitt Romneys team looks at voter intensity, early voting and Romneys lead among independents and concludes he will win. If you believe Obama and state polling, the electorate will look like 2008; if you take the other view, 2012 wont resemble 2008.
Romneys team is getting some confirmation from early voting reports, which suggest we are a far distance from 2008. Pew reports: The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted. In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.
Gallup finds Romney up among early voters by a similar margin (52 to 46 percent). In 2008 Obama had an advantage of 55 to 40 percent.
What about actual early voting?
In Virginia, Obama is also running well behind 2008. Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Reports tells us that early voting is down 13.6 percent in Obama strongholds and down only 1.7 percent in GOP strongholds.
In Colorado Republicans are ahead in early voting.
In Nevada Democrats retain an early voting advantage, but again the margin is substantially down from 2008.
In yesterdays Romney campaign conference call, the campaigns pollster and political director put out a raft of information:
In Florida, [Richard] Beeson noted that of 2 million early votes cast, Democrats held an edge by fewer than 40,000 ballots a 70 percent drop from 2008. In Ohio, comparing county results in early voting from 2008 with those of today, turnout was significantly better for Republicans, he said. In Iowa, he said that Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day, and that Democrats need to bring an early voting lead of 130,000 to the polls on Election Day in order to win. Republicans are over-performing in early voting in 71 of 99 counties from 2008, making it less likely that Obama would reach the margin needed. Other swing states showed similar patterns, and Republicans seemed to be leading in early and absentee voting in Colorado. Beeson predicted we will win on Election Day big in North Carolina, which Obama has continued to avoid in recent weeks.
In sum, there is considerable evidence from both polling of and actual early voting that the political landscape portrayed in a number of state polls showing an Obama lead in swing states doesnt exist. If that improvement in early voting holds up, Democrats should wonder if those state polls in which they have been investing so much hope are even in the 2012 election ballpark. Well find out next week.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/early-voting-buoys-romney/2012/11/01/1848c188-242f-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_blog.html
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,693 posts)But I'd suggest using a term other than "absolute retard." It's offensive.
Mass
(27,315 posts)Spazito
(50,338 posts)Her credibility is non-existent and has been for some time.
Maeve
(42,282 posts)Enrique
(27,461 posts)but I do know she is the biggest Romney spinner in the media (except maybe for Hugh Hewitt on the radio), and this is clearly just her conveying the Romney campaign's latest spin.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)watch out! You are going to get jumped for using the "R" word.
There are some at DU that are just VICIOUS and RABID if you say stuff that they don't like.
Just FYI!
Personally, I know what you mean...and I doubt that you meant it to attack her as being diagnosed with a disability, which
is causing her difficulties in her campaign.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,693 posts)to be "VICIOUS and RABID." It is an offensive term, and there's nothing vicious or rabid about suggesting the use of some other word.