I have a feeling this election is going to be very, very close...

[kentuck]

I know some believe it is going to be won by a comfortable margin. But my old bones tell me differently. Republicans believe they are going to win. Democrats believe they are going to win. Just like a basketball game, the one that wants it the most will work harder to get out the votes and will win the election.

Personally, I fail to see how anyone could be enthused about voting for Mitt Romney. But that does not mean they are not enthused about voting against Barack Obama.

In my life, I have noticed one thing about elections. When Democrats vote, Democrats win. When Democrats don't vote, Republicans win. It is as simple as that really.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. You really are the best of them

My hats off to you, sir.

[kentuck]

2. What do you mean "them"?

Do you know something I do not know??

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. I know something you KNOW

Again, my sincere congratulations. You've done remarkable work.

[kentuck]

9. Thank You.

I guess?

I have tried to be supportive of a progressive agenda and have tried to push the Democratic Party in that direction. I truly despise the tactics and lies of the Republican Party. They are harmful to our country, in my opinion.

I don't know that I have very much more to contribute to DU. I have been here since about February of 2001 but did not start posting until about late March or April. I have seen many changes. But this election is very important. It is critical that we win.

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. Hey man

Play the tune for the audience.

I already know the talent on display.

[11 Bravo]

33. With almost 64K posts and membership since 2001, I'm not sensing the same "them"ness that you are.

kentuck has been a good DUer from the very beginning.

[alcibiades_mystery]

34. He's good alright

[11 Bravo]

38. Hell, by your reckoning he's a mother-fucking omnipotent, omniscient, genius!

The guy joined DU in 2001 just so 11 years later he could be a "concern troll" regarding the incumbent President, who at the time of kentuck's incipient DU membership, was a relatively obscure Illinois State Senator. That right there is some serious fucking Nostradamus!

[alcibiades_mystery]

39. I don't pretend to know why other people do what they do

But I recognize quality when I see it.

[LongTomH]

4. Work to Get Out The Vote! That's the only answer!

[The Magistrate]

5. In a 52/48 Mood, Myself, Sir

Have been since May or so, actually....

"Romney loves America like a tick lives a dog."

[drm604]

7. "Romney loves America like a tick loves a dog."

I like that! It describes the attitude of people like him very well.

[pwb]

6. When we vote big in Presidential elections we make gains in congress.

We do not vote so much in off year elections and special elections, that is when the pukes win and we get in such a mess as 2010. We need to take off year and special election more seriously. Good post.

[oswaldactedalone]

10. ^^^ Truth ^^^

But how do you do it when you're the party in power and people become complacent?

[RomneyLies]

8. 79.0% chance it'll be 50.5% O to 48.6% R

According to Nate Silver.

[onenote]

11. I think you are right

Even the best of polls make a very close race factoring in the margin of error.

[Bluenorthwest]

13. Your bones tell you this? How?

I am just over folks to present themselves as having some 'gut' way of knowing this and that, usually with 'I'm old' tossed in as if being old brought insight into all things. My bones....

[davsand]

16. Well, you certainly showed your ASS with that post.

Dunno about your bones, however...

Kentuck is one of the good ones and there's NO call to come after him for saying something a lot of folks believe. You need to just suck it up and work GOTV, Hon.



Laura

[Dawgs]

18. The only to show their ass is you. WTF does "one of the good ones" mean?

Are you the decider now?

[davsand]

22. IMO, his credentials are above reproach both as an organizer and a Dem.

There's a lot of walking bullshit on the internet, and he isn't it. THAT is all I'm saying. I've known Kentuck for a long time--over a decade--and he's pragmatic, and he's somebody that can stay focused on the task at hand.

Be angry that the race is even marginally questionable because the Mittster is such a pig. Be angry that the press reports not news, but their opinion. Hell, you can be angry about whatever blows your skirt up that day--as long as you channel it into working for the Democrats on your ticket. We ALL have better things to do right now than to be carping and bitching at each other.





Laura

[OldDem2012]

28. You've known kentuck personally or just through the Internet?...

Just want to make sure we're all clear about that 10-year relationship.

[kentuck]

29. I know Laura's viewpoints ...

from her 10 years plus of posting on DU. You can learn a lot about people from what they write. I know a lot of folks just on the Internet but I feel that I know them better than some folks I speak to on a regular basis. People tend to be more honest when they write than when they speak, in my opinion. I can vouch that Laura is not a troll. I do know that much.

[davsand]

32. I am many things, probably been called more of them than most.

Troll, however, on DU is not one of those things. Thank you, Kentuck, for recognizing that.

We have survived some interesting times and I'm looking forward to more!



Laura

[kentuck]

27. That's your opinion?

And they say that opinions are like assholes - everybody has one...

[MineralMan]

14. Well, then, all the more reason to GOTV like crazy.

Thanks for your pep talk, kentuck. I can always count on you to stimulate me into working harder.

[TomClash]

15. And the aftermath won't be pretty either

The loser will be sore, very sore. There will be recriminations, especially if THEY lose.

[Dawgs]

17. Your beliefs do not trump math.

It won't be close.

[davsand]

20. I hope you are right!

My mom used to say, "Your mouth to God's ear!" at times like these, and it seems to apply here.

I think it is a safe bet that most of the DUers really don't want to see the Mittster do well at all. The only way to guarantee that the numbers go our way--or at least to help it along--is to keep on playing our ground game by making sure our voters get to the polls and get counted. I get worried in ANY race when the polling numbers that are announced show those "leads" that are within the margin of error, or even just outside it. Polls are only as good as the one writing the question, and even THAT can be impacted by the caller's energy when they do the polling. I've been there to watch it happening, just like a lot of other folks have.

Obama IS gonna win this (IMO) and I'd LOVE it if he absolutely kicked ass when he does it. It's what I think a lot of us want. However, simply winning by enough to eliminate doubt would be ok with me too. I'll take whatever winning margin we can get for Obama!


Laura

[Bandit]

19. I am afraid to hope, every time I do we get trounced..

I thought sure Wisconsin would throw out that bum of a governor they have but noooo. I thought sure 2010 was all talk by republicans, but noooo. I was positive Kerry would beat Bush*, but noooo. I can no longer trust my instincts when it comes to our election process. All I can do is HOPE.....I know half of America is out of their fucking skulls and that scares me a lot....Half of America thinks torture is proper interrogation practice, and Democrats are going to put them in re-education camps...I simply don't know what to think any more...

[Baitball Blogger]

21. They are making it close by dishonest means.

[stuntcat]

23. and the 'news' media is just helping

If the empty sacks on tv say enough times that it's close, then it gets close, because that's how humans work, especially those who'll get worked up about a chance for the president's skin tone to match theirs.

[JCMach1]

24. only the popular vote, Kentuck

[ChoppinBroccoli]

25. What States Do You Think Rmoney Will Flip To Make It Close?

Even if you GIVE him Indiana and North Carolina, he comes nowhere within sniffing distance of winning. Even if you give him Florida, Obama wins comfortably. And that ignores the most current, relevant polling data we have at this moment.

In order to win, Rmoney has to win Ohio, and he's getting his tail kicked in Ohio right now. Without Ohio, the ONLY way he can win is to flip Colorado, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and he's losing in all but one of those States right now.

I appreciate that you're the cautious type, but all the data that's available to us right now suggests another Obama blowout.

[kentuck]

26. And therein is the reason for caution.

Colorado, Florida, NC, VA, NV, or NH are not traditional Democratic states. And Iowa has been known to go Republican from time to time. I would say that the President could very easily lose any or all of those, but if I had to pick 4, it would be CO, VA, NC, and FL...Perhaps you think those are in the President's column already?

[ChoppinBroccoli]

40. No, But I'm About 99% Confident.............

...............that New Hampshire and Nevada will go to Obama. And Rmoney CAN'T win without them. I think at the end of the day, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida will all be Obama States as well, but they're a little closer right now (but turning bluer with each passing day).

[GeorgeGist]

30. It's really not that simple ...

but your concern is noted.


"your bones tell me ..."

[kentuck]

31. I feel in my bones...

that you have no sincere belief...

[Jennicut]

35. The popular vote will be very close.

Obama could even lose it. Or be ahead one to two points.

Electorally, I think Obama has a chance to win OH, NV, IA, WI and possibly VA and NH. It would be below 300 electoral votes. Not Gore Bush 2000 close but not what happened in 2008. I see it as 2004 more....286 to 251 was Bush's victory in that one. Many close state battles.
Most cautious guess is scenario is closer to 2000: is 271 to 267 for Obama. OH, WI and IA or OH, WI and NV.

[treestar]

36. I'll be consulting the polls for my opinion

I believe them to be more scientific than my bones.

[SomethingFishy]

37. Judging from the crap spewing from the Romney campaign

Which basically says "We have momentum and are going to win this" and follows it up the the most egregious lies like "Jeep is moving to China"and "Obamacare will make it so you can't see a specialist"

I would say they are losing, bad, and they know it. Now it's a desperate attempt to throw everything from Bengazhi to the Storm, to the Muslim Brotherhood at the wall hoping something will stick. It's pathetic.

And where the hell is Trump? Isn't today the final day of his ultimatum? Where if Obama doesn't release his college transcripts the Donald will unleash his hair on an unsuspecting public?