I Might Be Agreeing with Joe Scar over Nate. I think Nate's Wrong.

[berni_mccoy]

He's predicting a Romney Win in Florida.

I think Obama's going to take it.

Main indicators Nate's model is predicting a FL win for Romney: We Ask America and Gravis Polls, plus state fundamentals (which I think have changed due to voter registration). It would be a toss-up favoring Obama otherwise.

So, yeah, I think Nate's wrong here.

Otherwise, I agree with him

[justiceischeap]

1. Remember, Nate was right in 2010

in his prediction that Republics would take over but the numbers he predicted were lower than the actual count.

So, I think he somehow downplays the actual stats somehow.

[Shivering Jemmy]

2. In 2010 he had to predict several hundred races

Most of which were polled only a few times. Given that he did spectacularly well.

[progressivebydesign]

10. That sort of strikes me in the opposite way.

MUCH easier to call races for Congress in 2010 where it was very clear that the Dem turn out was going to be low, and with only a handful of polls to analyze.

[phleshdef]

13. No, calling congressional races is much harder.

Congressional races are more volatile to changes and there isn't nearly as much polling available.

[DefenseLawyer]

15. Only in the handful of districts in the country that are actually competitive

Most districts are gerrymandered to give one party or the other a clear advantage that, barring the appearance of a dead girl or a live boy, as Edwin Edwards used to say, the outcome isn't normally in doubt.

[polichick]

3. imo there will be enough fraud in Floriduh to give it to Rmoney...

I say that as a Floridian who loves the state and knows the Republicon party there.

[HockeyMom]

4. They are already" losing" votes

Guess where?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Three Hardest States In Order To Pick A Winner

FL
NC
VA

I think most of us can pick the other 47.

[FSogol]

6. I'd put Ohio over VA. I feel VA is clearly in the win column for Obama.

Look at Kaine's big statewide lead over Allen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. You Think VA Is Stronger Than OH

Interesting. You could be right. However I largely defer to aggregate polling in my analysis. The only time I put my finger on the scale is when the margin is < 1% or I intuitively know aggregate polling is off which is almost never as it should be.

Instances of gut picks was calling CA and NH for Hillary in the 08 primaries despite polling to the contrary. Again, those were isolated instances. Going with your gut is almost never a better approach than going with the data.

[FSogol]

8. I worry about voting hijinks in Ohio. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Too Many People Watching

I think a lot of people do the right thing not because they are noble but because they are concerned about the consequences of doing the wrong thing and getting caught.

[FSogol]

11. Hope so. The same doesn't hold true in Florida does it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Most Of The Shenanigans In FL Were Done In Plain Sight

However I would have liked to have seen the spoiled ballots from heavily African American precincts in Duval County. There were reportedly thousands of them.

[geek tragedy]

12. I'd put CO in the top three over NC.

CO is a better prospect for Team O, but Republicans still outnumber Democrats there.