Today's data for a few polling aggregates and Intrade...Final update done - a good day!

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Fri Nov 2, 2012, 09:59 PM - Edit history (29)

Thurs Nov 1

9:48 EST - Intrade 67.8% http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
12:20 PM - 68.2%
3 PM - 66.8
5 PM - 65.9 (this seems typical - some Romney money must be coming in)
9 PM 64.9
10 PM 66.7
11:30 PM 67.4

Friday Nov 2

Fri 9:30 AM 68.3
1:20 PM 66
4:45 PM 66.8
10 PM 67.5

Thurs Nov 1

8:02 AM - Princeton Election Consortium - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win http://election.princeton.edu/
noon 312 EVs, 99.1%
3 PM 316 EVs, 99.1% (Random Drift 96%)
8 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)
11 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)

Fri Nov 2

8 AM update 318 EVs, 99.2% (96%)
noon 318, 99.3
4:45 PM 319, 99.5
8 PM 319, 99.6

Thurs Nov 1

12:53 AM - 538 blog - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
9 PM update - 303 EVs, 80.8% (304/83 Nowcast)
11:40 PM update 303.4, 80.9 (303.9, 82.9 Nowcast)

Fri Nov 2
7 PM update 303.3, 81.1; nowcast 302.8, 82.5
8:30 303.7 81.4 (nowcast 304.3 83.7)

Thurs Nov 1

Polltracker (TPM site) - 303 EVs http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
4 PM 285 EVs
10 PM 285

Fri Nov 2

9:30 AM 276 (??)
1:30 PM 285
4:45 PM 285
9:30 PM 285

Thurs Nov 1

Huff post - 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs - http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
5 PM Obama 277 EVs
11 PM - 277

Fri Nov 2

9:30 AM - 259 (??)
12:30 PM - 259
2 PM 277
4:45 PM 277
5:45 PM 281
9:30 PM 281

Going to keep tracking/editing through election day, just for fun.

GOTV!

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. kicking - will provide updates every 4 hrs or so. getting even better!

editing the OP with the updates

[renate]

2. thank you!

Do you understand the details of why Nate Silver's likelihood of an Obama win is so much lower than that of the Princeton Election Consortium? Does Nate take weather, vote suppression, etc into account in a way the Princeton people don't, or does he use different polls, or does Princeton only do the "now" likelihood whereas Nate does both "now" and "election day" results... I'm sorry to ask you something I should be able to figure out for myself, but statistics is murky to me and you seem to know how these things work. Thanks!

[renate]

3. nvm--Charlotte Little posted this article in Politics 2012:

"Freaking out about the super-tight presidential race and the near-daily barrage of polls suggesting that Obama—no, wait, Romney—could, maybe, possibly, eke out a narrow victory? Sick of empty punditry and craving data-driven electoral analysis? Are you unafraid of mysterious nerdy things like math?

If you answered yes to any of the above, check out these seven guys who crunch mountains of polling data so you don't have to. They don't have crystal balls, but they might just have the next best thing."

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/11/election-predictors-obama-romney

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. once more kick - you can see how things have moved since 9 this AM

will do one more edit before I hit the sack - probably between 9 PM and midnight EST.

[NRaleighLiberal]

5. Last kick and update (see the OP) - a view on how things moved AM to PM. Intrade was interesting.

A good day. Let's hope for an equally fine Friday!

[BainsBane]

6. Currently 80.9% in Silver's Nov. 6 cast

82.9 in the Now Cast.