Nate's 538 11/1: 300.4 - 79% -- 301 - 81.4% now-cast (link)

[Ellipsis]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[regnaD kciN]

1. Second update tonight, for a minor Obama uptick of 0.6%...

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 02:32 AM - Edit history (1)

I'm assuming this includes the O+6 EPIC Michigan poll from later today. It certainly doesn't include the Marist polls of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin just released this evening, but I'm unsure of what effect those might have, since they increase Obama's lead in the first of the three but narrow it in the other two.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. It depends

Nate says that certain states like Ohio tend to impact the model more when polls for those states are released.

When it comes to states like Wisconsin, my guess is that a sinlge poll showing a narrowing there won't have much of an impact.

[regnaD kciN]

3. Plus...

...there's also a new Marquette poll of Wisconsin with Obama up 8 that hasn't been included in Nate's figures either.