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Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:43 AM - Edit history (1)
TUE OCT 30, 2012 AT 09:50 PM PDT
Reason #26 to be optimistic: Nate Silver rises to 77.4% [+bonus good news]
byMeMeMeMeMeFollow
Nate Silver's http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ latest prediction, as of T-minus 6 days before the election, is a 77.4% chance of Obama winning, up from a 72.9% chance just yesterday.
His electoral vote count stands at 299, up from 294.6 yesterday. This closely aligns with the current prediction of Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium, which stands at 305 electoral votes. http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/31/election-night-scenario-tracking-tool/
Obama's numbers continue their long and steady rise for the past three weeks. Look at the trends. Ask yourself: would you trade places with Mitt Romney right now?
Bonus good news: Thanks to trix in comments, new Quinnipiac Ohio poll:
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1152909/48177324#c5
Obama 50
Romney 45
Can I get a hell yeah?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1152909/-Reason-1-to-be-optimistic-Nate-Silver-rises-to-77-4
UPDATE TO ADD: Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)
Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/31/latest_swing_state_polls.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29
ANOTHER UPDATE:
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
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65.0%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.50 / share
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
Today's Change: +$0.09 (+1.4%)
TPM
The Big Polls So Far Today
DAVID KURTZ OCTOBER 31, 2012, 10:08 AM 454
NYT/CBS: Obama up 5 points in Ohio, 2 points in Virginia, and 1 point in Florida.
Franklin & Marshall College: Obama up 4 points in Pennsylvania.
PPP: Obama up by 5 in Wisconsin and in Iowa.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/the_big_polls_so_far_today.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Talking-Points-Memo+%28Talking+Points+Memo%3A+by+Joshua+Micah+Marshall%29
BumRushDaShow
(129,609 posts)Ready to GO!
lunatica
(53,410 posts)Hell yeah!
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Romney and his lying Jeep ad count' possibly be gaining ground this week up against the president doing his job in a time of emergency.
More than the personal contrast, the storm might shock a few "rugged individualists" into the reality that we are all in this together and we do need a well-functioning government. We need a president to make government work, not a President to take government apart.
And for Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, I just wanted to let you guys know it was God's will that Obama look highly Presidential the week before the election.
LeftofObama
(4,243 posts)I'll be breathing a lot easier on Nov. 7 when President Obama is officially declared the winner. This election is making me a nervous wreck!
cilla4progress
(24,782 posts)GOING to make some major changes in my life when our Pres wins his 2nd term.
Need to learn to meditate - self-care. I've been a wreck for the last month.
Maybe get a TV - haven't had one in 20 years (want to be able to watch his last term in office).
Other stuff.
Thanks for sharing.
goclark
(30,404 posts)kalli007
(683 posts)NNN0LHI
(67,190 posts)txwhitedove
(3,933 posts)easychoice
(1,043 posts)I feel a spike coming on too.No proof just a feeling that the media is chilling/manipulating Obama's popularity.Come on Nov.7
SkyDaddy7
(6,045 posts)Rockyj
(538 posts)malaise
(269,200 posts)GObama!!!
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)outsideworld
(601 posts)sheshe2
(83,940 posts)ErikJ
(6,335 posts)99Forever
(14,524 posts)HELL YEAH!!
FailureToCommunicate
(14,025 posts)Hell yeah!
Amazing to remember that only a month ago, Silver's 538 had Obama at 98% chance of winning...before the media decided Romney "appeared presidential"
AzDar
(14,023 posts)LukeFL
(594 posts)Lilma
(132 posts)FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
caseymoz
(5,763 posts)A 1 in 5 chance of Romney winning is what I call harrowing. Add in the possibility of cheating, and that's probably about a 40 percent chance. That's a 2 in 5 of Dubya, the sequel.
That's horror movie material as far as I'm concerned.
nolabear
(41,991 posts)ananda
(28,879 posts)Forward!
GoneOffShore
(17,342 posts)oliverrams1
(60 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Many of us will be headed down to deep Virginia and staying over the weekend to GOTV!!
I'm excited about it. I feel like we are doing special things down there. It won't be easy, but it can be done!!
cilla4progress
(24,782 posts)TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Lugnut
(9,791 posts)spedtr90
(719 posts)cilla4progress
(24,782 posts)DITTO FROM HERE!
HELL YA!!!!!!!!!!!!1
beac
(9,992 posts)Brigid
(17,621 posts)But one word of caution, though: Don't forget to GOTV.
And a big "Hallelujah, amen!" as well. What a groove.
geardaddy
(24,931 posts)Kurovski
(34,655 posts)for cursing.
K&R, Mother Fuckers.
byronius
(7,401 posts)Doubly overt and enthusiastic exclamation!
We're going to do this.