In 2008, President Obama received 69,456,897 votes...

[kentuck]

Last edited Mon Oct 29, 2012, 12:36 AM - Edit history (1)

That was almost 10 million more than John McCain. (59,934,814 )

My simple question is, how many votes will Romney get compared to John McCain? Is he really that much more popular with Republicans? Of course, we have to consider that much of the Republican vote was depressed after the disaster of George W Bush and the collapsed economy.

But how many supporters has the President lost since his last election? My thoughts would be that there would be some but not a huge number? And how many new voters will go to the polls this time around? I would think they would probably balance out? In the end, the President will receive about the same number of votes as the last time.

Ten million votes is a lot of votes in a total votes cast of 125 million. That is the number that Romney would need to make up to equal the President in the last election. Is Romney really that popular with Republicans?

Granted, they hate Barack Obama. But some don't like the idea of a Mormon winning the election either. Some don't like the idea of a wealthy plutocrat hiding his money in overseas accounts and sending American jobs overseas. It's difficult to see the enthusiasm and energy that the media is talking about when they are discussing the Romney campaign.

So, by my calculations, Barack Obama will win the popular vote by a good margin. Maybe not by 8 million but by about half of that. The election will be decided by electoral vote but not by the Supreme Court, as it was in 2000. I think Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa will be the keys to victory or defeat, not Ohio.

Just my read on the numbers as I see them.

(edited to correct the numbers after further documentation)

[David Zephyr]

1. President Obama will win the popular and electoral college contests.

I always say 9 million, but who's counting?

I've already posted that Romney can only possibly win 269 now and his team knows it.

The phony polling by Gallup, Rasmussen and Gravis is to keep the big donors from freaking out so that they keep pouring their money into Romney's losing cause.

Gravis finally coughed up that Ohio is gone which means that Romney will make a big play at Iowa and Wisconsin now as the math begins to destroy him. Gravis' phony Ohio polling now needs to be adjusted so that they don't look so out of line with reality.

Romney's Ohio campaign from this weekend on will be as fake as he is.

[spanone]

2. i agree.

[kentuck]

4. DZ..

I don't see Obama losing the popular vote.

I think you may be correct about keeping the big donors from freaking out. They were ready to give up on him just before the first debate but were persuaded that the Great Romney did so well that he actually had a shot to win it and they kept shoveling money...

[David Zephyr]

5. DZ here. The phony polls are to keep the donors giving to Romney.

Go Obama!!!!!!

[Mz Pip]

8. Not just to Romney

I must get about 10 emails a day from different Democratic groups asking for money. The MSM is making a fortune from the ad money and it's coming from both sides.

[treestar]

3. To my mind Mittens is so much worse than McCain

But maybe to the average swing voter - the Palin effect was there. People may have truly worried. McCain was over 70 already. He had picked an empty head to succeed him. Even Lyan Ryan seems more competent.

[fujiyama]

6. Romney will probably do better with whites

especially in the South and throughout Appalachia. He'll run up huge margins in TN, AR, KY, and the deep south. He'll probably do even worse than Latinos though, crucial to NV, CO, and increasingly VA and NC as well - not to mention FL.

He'll do better in the mid west as well, but likely not enough to offset Obama's advantages there. This is what makes the likely voter models so difficult to predict. Will we have an electorate closer to '08 or '04? A while ago, I might have said '04, because of percieved enthusiasm gap. Early voting is making the gap seem less likely.

[kentuck]

9. At his peak, I think Bush had about 59,000,000 votes plus...?

McCain did not equal that.

[fujiyama]

16. Officially Bush got 62,040,610 votes in '04

McCain got 59,950,323 votes in '08. Kerry got just over 59 million. Pretty embarrassing getting fewer votes than Bush four years before and just under a million votes more than the losing candidate four years earlier...

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

I think Romney will undoubtedly get more votes than Bush. The question is Obama's retention from '08 and what the likely voter model is. That's what makes this election really frustrating. The divergence between the national and state polls is driving me nuts.

[graham4anything]

7. 270 is the only number I care about. (or 192 before 11pm eastern time).

270 to win
192 before 11pm est as there are 78 blue state electoral votes to come after 11pm est
(Washington,Oregon, Hawaii and of course California).

[quinnox]

10. I'm thinking total votes will be lower than 2008

which would be bad news for our side. I just don't see the kind of interest or excitement that was generated in 2008 this time around. Romney will rack up a lot of votes among white men and I fear the racist vote will also be strong this year, further adding to his total. I think the racists are itching to take "the black man" down from the news stories I've read and the general atmosphere. They don't care what Romney's policies are, just that he is as white as can be.

[Fumesucker]

11. Suspending his campaign was Good News For John McCain

Barbecue, tire swings, Straight Talk Express, McCain had the actual media talking heads in his pocket as well as their bosses.

This time Romney doesn't have the talking heads personally on his side to the same extent as McCain had, he has their bosses and hence their wallets but he still thinks they are beneath him and it shows.

ETA: Dubya had the punditubbies in his pocket too, guy you'd like to have a (non alcoholic) beer with and Gore distinctly did not. Romney makes Gore look like a contortionist he's so damn stiff.

[NRaleighLiberal]

12. McCain had two pretty bad late missteps- Palin as his VP and his bizarre reaction to the financial

crisis. You can see just looking at the RCP aggregate polling numbers how much of a hit he took and never recovered.

For whatever reason, that first debate had a remarkably large impact on Obama's numbers - in part I think due to the reaction of BOTH left (such emotive hand wringing - created a self fulfilling sky is falling prophesy) and MSM. The magnitude of that drop will always mystify me....

[kentuck]

15. I agree about the self-fulfilling prophecy...

and wringing hands. The left and the MSM both put undue expectations on the President and helped to create the impression that Romney did a really great job, when in fact, he did not. Unless, of course, you consider bullying and walking over the moderator as something "great".

[tman]

13. He actually received 69,456,897

Over 70 million this time would be sweet.

[kentuck]

14. By this link, you are correct!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

He recd almost 10 million more votes than McCain. Which makes Romney's task even more daunting.

I'll re-check the link I was using from Google...??

on edit: Here was link I was using but I think your numbers are the correct ones:

http://www.infoplease.com/us/government/presidential-election-vote-summary.html

[Honeycombe8]

17. I think there was an unusually high turnout in 2008, so those nos. don't apply. The percentages do.

It's not the number of votes Obama and McCain got. It's the percentage each got.

2008 was an historical election, so we probably won't see that turnout again. Hard to predict what the turnout will be.

In 2008 Obama got 53%, McCain got 46%. Obama will get less than that percentage this time...the storm in the northeast will have an effect, the recession has lost him a few votes, and disappointed Obama voters from things done or not done in the last 4 years. Most will show up and vote for him, though.

All he needs to do is win. Personally, I think he'll win both the popular vote and the electoral vote. That's all I care about.

[Tx4obama]

18. 2008- Obama: 69,498,215 (52.93%), McCain: 59,948,240 (45.66%)

Obama received 3,528,633 of them from Texas

[Angleae]

19. In 2008, too many people were just voting anti-Bush.

Backlash vs republicans isn't nearly as strong now as it was 4 years ago. Romney will get more votes than McCain. Obama will get fewer votes than he got in 2008. Barring the truly weird, Obama should still win, but by a smaller margin than 4 years ago.

[johnlucas]

21. Slightly wrong. Hear me out.

Obama has picked up in demographics not gone down.

He will have more women, more Hispanics, more gays than he did last time around.
Blacks are virtually all in his corner just like last time.
Whites can be iffy. He has picked up some Whites that may not have voted for him last time but may have lost some Whites that did vote for him last time.
I believe he is stable with Asians/Pacific Islanders, Middle Easterners, Native Americans & such.

He owns the young vote definitely even though he has to inspire them harder to come to the polls.
He will pick up more elders than last time purely due to Paul Ryan.
Military families may be more in his corner especially with him ending Iraq War.
I'm hopeful that veterans are a little more on his side.

The big variable is how many non-voters can Obama turn to voters this year.
Non-voters are the TRUE majority of the electorate.

As for last election on the Republican side, bigoted Republicans voted in force to keep Obama out of the White House.
They were just as serious then as they are now.
I call it the Racist Factor & it was strong in 2008 yet Obama still beat McCain by a good 7% in the Popular Vote.
They voted AGAINST Obama but there were some who actually voted FOR McCain.
I remember seeing McCain signs everywhere 4 years ago in my area.

This year, NOBODY is voting FOR Romney. They're just voting AGAINST Obama.
I have seen no Romney signs anywhere around here.
The Racist Factor is still strong in 2012 & they are once again coalescing around one candidate desperate to get Obama out of office just like they were desperate to keep him from office 4 years ago.

4 years ago, Palin was a boost for the religious bigot set within the Republicans.
Palin just scared the Independents off.
McCain's age was a factor because people thought that if he died she would become President.
This HELPED McCain with the hardcore bigots but hurt him with anybody not so hardcore.
Remember how it almost seemed like the Palin/McCain ticket instead of the other way around?

This year Romney's Mormon religion, financial background, & general shadiness can dampen enthusiasm for him.
Even WITH the Racist Factor boosting him he may not see the same numbers McCain saw.
Then his running mate Ryan ALSO scares off some seniors who know what he's all about.
The phony polls make it seem like he has a chance but I'm looking at reality.

Romney's support will be smaller than McCain's.
2012 Obama's support will be larger than 2008 Obama's.

Obama now has a record & he has accomplished some major things.
Before he was just an educated gamble.

Rising demographics for Obama, Obama's 1st term record, still strong enthusiasm
VS.
Shrinking demographics for Romney from McCain, static Racist Factor, phony trumped up enthusiasm

It all points to an Obama LANDSLIDE.

It will be a bigger margin than 4 years ago when you look at the general demographics & logic behind those demographics.

Also the Tea Party has run its course.
They couldn't even get their candidates past Romney in the primaries.
Congress' approval rating is very low.
Many of the Tea Party Republicans are gonna be flushed out on Election Day too.
John Lucas

[Angleae]

22. I've seen Romney signs and I live in western WA.

I can't remember seeing an Obama sign however. The polls also bear out he's behind from 4 years ago.

(Oct 28, 2012) http://www.electoral-vote.com/
(Oct 28, 2008) http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html

[johnlucas]

24. Well I live in GA, a Republican stronghold, & I have NOT seen any Romney signs

At least Romney has a few actual signs out there. I was beginning to feel bad for the guy (not really).
I live in Georgia, a Deep South state that sways Republican for obvious Southern Strategical reasons.
4 years ago McCain signs EVERYWHERE.
Now not one Romney sign in sight.
No bumper stickers, baseball caps, nothing.

The Republicans in this place will still vote Romney but they are not really excited about it.
I ignore the polls. The polls are full of bullshit & they will be shown to be in error once Election Day comes around.
It's not the first time this has happened.

History says be skeptical of presidential polls

As for elections shifting in the late stages, in 2000, an Oct. 6 poll had George W. Bush at 48 percent and Al Gore at 41 percent, and as late as Oct. 26, Bush was up among likely voters in the Gallup poll by 52 percent to 39 percent. Again, the final vote was Gore 48.4 percent and Bush 47.9 percent.

Most dramatic, on Oct. 27, 1980, Gallup had President Jimmy Carter beating Ronald Reagan by 45 percent to39 percent. Of course, Reagan won by 50.7 percent to 41.0 percent.

I'm not even gonna get into that Dewey Defeats Truman situation.
How do they even determine what a 'likely voter' is anyhow?
It's nonsense.

If Electoral-Vote.com is making their info from what these polls say then no wonder they're seeing the wrong picture.
Demographically Obama is ahead & Romney is behind that determines who will be going to the voting booth.

You want a poll you can better count on?
Then try a poll where people put their money where their mouth is.
Read this.

7-eleven has Obama as clear winner of the elections
As of October 29th Obama has 59%, Romney has 41%. As that thread's starter lunamagica says, 7-Eleven's 7-Election poll has been nearly dead on with the final actual results for the past 2 elections.

Yes, gentle reader it's time once again for the Halloween mask poll.
Halloween masks predict Obama win 60-40. And as the thread's starter Spitfire of ATJ points out from the MoneyCNN link, Spirit Halloween has accurately predicted the election winner by charting national mask sales since it started keeping track in 1996. Not to mention that Big Bird costumes have been flying off the shelves.

See the difference between the other polls & these ones is that people actually put their money forward on the 2 examples I showed. It ain't just talk & samples. These are point-of-sale measurements & people don't like wasting their money on somebody they don't like. Actions speak louder than words.

Both of these polls fall right within my 15% to 20% margin of the Popular Vote that I talk about in my Obama Landslide thread.
18 point lead in that 7-Election thing, full 20 point lead in Spirit Halloween's Halloween mask poll.

I was very confident when I made that landslide thread on October 10th & I'm just as confident now.
Barack Obama WILL DEFEAT Mitt Romney in a Popular & Electoral LANDSLIDE.
That fact will bear itself out on November 6th. Mark my words.
John Lucas

[johnlucas]

20. Like I said before & will say again, Obama will win in a LANDSLIDE

It's all right here.

ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

Check that post date, October 10th.

He won't just win in a "good margin", he's gonna blow Romney's ass out of the water on Election Day.
15% to 20% of the Popular Vote...which naturally leads into Electoral Landslide.
This election has NEVER been close. Don't let all that media squawking fool you.
John Lucas

[AverageJoe90]

23. Hope so, John, but I've got no doubts.....

That if they can't steal this thing outright, they'll at least try to flip enough votes to make the election closer than it really was....this may have happened in '08, btw, if that Monte Carlo guy is correct.....

[johnlucas]

25. They have to cheat because they can't win but it's futile either way

You don't have to hope so, AverageJoe90.
You can KNOW so.

They ain't winning this election.
And if you wanna hope on something, hope that Obama's landslide spreads downticket so we can get that Congress we need to move this country in a Progressive direction.
We got 1 more week & Mitt Romney disappears into the mists from which he came.

No amount of Republican cheating can derail that Landslide train.
If they cheated in 2008 & Obama STILL won by 7% WITH the racism handicap, then he will surely dominate again.
John Lucas