Finally - 538 update - Nov 6 295.5 Electoral Votes, 73.6% chance.

[NRaleighLiberal]

Slight drop - upon reexamination, was 74.4 in the previous update - pretty minimal. - but 295.4, so essentially the same in EVs

Now Cast is 296, 76.8.

Previous Now cast was - 296.8, 78.6% - so just a tad of softening.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Very closely matching this is Sam Wang's Princeton site

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

Obama with 291 electoral votes. 96% chance of reelection.

EDITED to add:

something pretty striking - if you look at the percentage of popular vote, throughout the entire range, Romney hasn't ever hit 50%- best was 49.1% on Oct. 12. Obama has been at or above 50% except for Oct 12/13, at 49.8 and 49.9%.

[doc03]

1. Haven't you heard the election is lost, the Des Moine Register

endorsed Romney. It's over we are doomed.

[Arugula Latte]

3. Right, and pay no attention to the myriad of endorsements from red state newspapers for Obama ...

Those mean nothing, but the one from the Register means all is lost for the Dems.

[Wildcat1955]

2. Virginia?

Didn't see the WP's Virginia poll that showed PBO up by 4 in the chart. I wonder if that was considered in the calculations?

[BainsBane]

8. it's there now

He just updated VA.

[speedoo]

11. Nate included that WaPo VA poll. Nt

[BainsBane]

4. O's chance of winning Virginia up to 60%

Earlier this week VA was 50-50.

[renate]

7. so it is!

Great!

[renate]

5. I wrote earlier tonight that my only real concern about the 6th was the voting machines

And in theory any likelihood greater than 50% should be classified as good news. But now I realize that any odds less than, oh, about 95% are going to worry me.

[NRaleighLiberal]

10. Princeton has it as 96%!

[renate]

15. yay! that's so good to hear!

[ffr]

6. Whatever. We're concentrating on the GOTV drive.

Those percentages are down from yesterday. Not sure what it's based upon, maybe to get more of us seeing red; more people coming on board to GOTV and donate $$$ to the Obama-Biden victory effort.

No stopping now. I say whatever to Mr. Silver. We'll see what the true number is on election day. Right now, his numbers look conservative.

CRUSH THE REPUBLICANS.

[NRaleighLiberal]

9. actually, they are slightly up for the forecast. by .5%.

[regnaD kciN]

13. Yesterday was 74.4%...

...so it went down 0.8%. Not a huge amount, particularly since Nate has said that volatility will increase drastically in the last two weeks of the campaign.

[NRaleighLiberal]

14. yes, just went back to the graph - he did two updates yesterday, which changed the ave for the day

fixed my OP

[Tutonic]

12. Heard that Nate was shaken to his core and

unnerved by the Unskewed Pollster criticism that he was tiny and effeminate looking. Unlike the Unskewed Pollster that is big and fat. Look for polls to show Obama chance of victory at 10% by Monday. This is not scientific or mathematical as Howard Fineman says but I'm guessing that in the case of the Unskewed bunch it helps to have an extra layer of girth around the midsection when conducting serious forecasts.